Showing posts with label Pedro Alvarez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pedro Alvarez. Show all posts

Friday, April 3, 2009

Reasons To Get Excited About the 2009 Pirates

When you are a Pirate fan, it can be a little bit difficult to get excited about another baseball season. Especially when there has been very little in the way of off-season change and the team that will take the field on Opening Day figures to be almost identical to the squad that was the worst team in baseball from last August onward.

So instead you have to look for little things and get excited about them and focus more on things like how future key players are progressing and other minor victories. With all that in mind, and with the start of the regular season just 3 days away, I compiled 10 the reasons that I'm excited about your 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates.

The potential return from another summer firesale- Jack Wilson and Adam LaRoche are both highly likely to be wearing different colored uniforms by August 1. It will be very interesting to see how Neal Huntington handles his second trade deadline, especially now that there isn't the same absolute desperation to add any sort of decent starting arms to the upper levels of the organization that there was last season. In addition, John Grabow, Matt Capps, and any of the established veterans on the roster are trade candidates and could at least fetch an OK return.

A Bounceback Year for Ian Snell- I'm calling it right now. Snell is in for a return to the 2007 form that made him such an intriguing player. I think he turns into a very solid number 2 starter behind Paul Maholm and would be a nice complement as a power pitcher behind Maholm's crafty routine.

Throwing a bunch of Starting Pitchers at the wall and seeing what sticks- For the first time in recent times, the Pirates have a decent amountof major-league ready starting pitchers. However, probably only 2 of those players (the aformentioned Snell and Maholm) are guys that good big-league teams would want on their staff. A key for the Pirates will be having at least 1 or 2 more guys develop into at least solid starters. Of the old hands in the organization, I am not on the Zach Duke bandwagon (nor is anyone on the entire planet I might add) as he just gets hit so hard. I also think Tom Gorzelanny is probably injured or has just flat lost it and so I'm not relying on him to make any sort of an impact in the near future. I'm intrigued by Ross Ohlendorf's ability to really throw the ball hard and I want to see more from Jeff Karstens, too. If one of those guys (more likely Ohlendorf than Karstens) turns in at least a solid season it would be big. There has also been talk about Daniel McCutchen since the Nady trade, and at some point this season we figure to see him in Pittsburgh.

Andrew McCutchen's Expected Arrival in Pittsburgh- For as long as I've been a Pirate fan (about 15-16 years), I can think of very few home-grown prospects who got the knowledgeable fans as excited as Cutch. Chad Hermansen was probably a bit more highly regarded (and I just threw up in my mouth a little bit), but let's hope this highly touted prospect turns out a bit better than the Hermanator. He has to be called up at some point this season. Whether that is in mid-May or July, Cutch will be a wildly exciting player for the fans to watch when he is finally wearing the big-league uni.

The minor league progress of star prospects Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Bryan Morris and Brad Lincoln- This reason isn't for the casual fan or for the faint of heart. But for the real passionate Bucco fan it figures to be a very interesting subplot to keep an eye on these 4 studs. Most will dig only as far as the PG's little daily minor-league recap allows them to. Personally, that's not enough. I'll be checking up every day with the minor league sites, hoping Alvarez is tearing through the minor league system, hoping Tabata gives us a full season of the talent he showed last season, and hoping Lincoln and Morris deliver on their stud potential, as we could really use some stud pitching prospects in this organization.

The progress of intriguing prospects like Shelby Ford, Brian Bixler, Jim Negrych, Steve Pearce, Danny Moskos, Neil Walker, Robbie Grossman, Jamie Romak, Jordy Mercer, Chase D'Arnaud, Quinton Miller, Brian Friday, Matt Hague and Duke Welker- Again, not something for the casual fan. And that's especially so in this case. None of these guys can be considered elite prospects, but each of them has the ability to at least make the show some day, and the hope is that a few of them turn into starters at that level. As I said earlier, we especially need big-time pitching prospects in this organization, so if a Quinton Miller or Duke Welker or Danny Moskos could have a big year development-wise it would be a tremendous development for the organization.

Having fantasy baseball back- I know it certainly isn't everyone's cup of tea. But to me, fantasy baseball is without question the best fantasy sport going. It is way more intensive and way less luck is involved than in fantasy football, and it gives me an even bigger need to follow baseball all summer long even when the Pirates are 20 games out of first place. I've had all 3 of my drafts, and surprisingly ended up with 4 Pirates total on my 3 teams. That's actually more than usual, as typically Pirates go higher in at least 2 of my drafts because its mostly Pittsburgh-group of players. Doumit, McLouth, Snell (twice), and Capps are the guys I will have an extra rooting interest in.

A make-or-break year for Andy LaRoche- I know this is his first full season with the Pirates, but I really think this is Andy's only shot at cementing a place with the team. I still like Neil Walker and think he'll develop at some point, and Pedro Alvarez (though I think he'll switch to first) figures to tear through the system and be wearing the Pirates uni by mid-2010. With all that in mind, Andy needs to put up at least something in the neighborhood of a .265/.335/.460 in order to give himself a place in the Pirates' future. If he fails yet again, he'll be certainly given the dreaded "Quad A prospect" tag. Those aren't even great numbers. They're Edwin Encarnacion numbers, and that would be good enough for me.

The seasons of Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit- All three had career years in 2008, and it will be very interesting to see how each fares in 2009. Personally, I'd guess that McLouth might regress a hair, but that Doumit will have an even better all-around season and that Maholm can be about as solid as he was last year.

The Draft- I know it's not a great reason, as there is at least a decent chance that the top pick might not play more than a handful of games in the system for the entire season, but with the Bucs sitting at number 4, I have to admit I am at least a little bit excited about adding another top-notch prospect to our system. Likely targets are probably 1B Dustin Ackley (a Scott Boras guy), RHP Aaron Crow (who held out last year and didn't sign with the Nationals), SS Grant Green, RHP Alex White and LHP Tyler Matzek. Obviously others will be in the mix by June, as well. I also am excited to see if the Pirates are able to get any other above-slot guys later on in the draft like they did last season.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Pirates Top Prospects Rundown

The 2009 MLB season kicks off in 2009, but really for most Pirate fans this season isn't going to be about contending or trying to get over the .500 mark, because I just really can't see that happening. No, for most intelligent baseball-watching folks, this year will be progress. Seeing progress in the organization that hints that maybe our despair is slowly coming to an end. That maybe some of these young players currently with the major league club are guys we could see playing important roles for good baseball teams. And perhaps most important of all, that some of the top prospects in our minor league system are progressing and will be able to have a major impact on the PBC in the very near future.

With that in mind, I wanted to do something of a preview of the top prospects in our system. Alas, I'm not scout and the only legit prospects I've seen play with my own two eyes are Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker, and that was only for two games each. So I'm not exactly qualified. Instead, I thought I'd allow some of the real experts on this type of stuff to take over. So here is some of the stuff I have found on our top prospects with links to the sites and a brief quote from each, along with a little personal input at the bottom of each. I'd like to make this a regular feature on here to be updated whenever we get a new prospect with promise or at the start of each season with new info.

Pedro Alvarez-Named the #1 NL Prospect by Jim Callis at Baseball America, "Spring injury, summer holdout overshadow his devastating hitting ability."

-A scouting report from Scout.com from last year.
"Whether or not Alvarez can remain at his current position, however, is not such a sure thing. Although he has a enough arm strength to remain on the left side of the infield, some scouts fear that his size/weight may become an issue, similar to Miguel Cabrera's situation this spring in Detroit. He made 10 errors in his brief campaign with the Commodores in '08, posting a .903 fielding percentage. Regardless, many scouts also feel—as does he—that he can remain at the position at the highest level.
"

-An in-depth piece on Alvarez from Baseball-Intellect that includes a good breakdown of his swing (scroll halfway down for Pedro).
"On the whole, Alvarez's swing is pretty simple. His hip rotation is aggressive and forceful; he doesn't let his hands get out in front. Rather, he turns his hips and hands together. He could stand to let the ball travel a little deeper, but that may just be a result of this one particular swing.
"The biggest weakness for Alvarez is his propensity to swing and miss though I can't say whether this is because of poor pitch recognition or something else."


-A report from Scouting Book:
"A left-handed power hitting third baseman, Alvarez has a very very high ceiling and is almost big-league ready. He could be a big part of a devastating future Pittsburgh lineup. He's recovering from a hamate bone he broke in 2007, but all reports are positive so his strength should be back soon."

-Of course we'll wrap up everyone with a link to each player's page at the superb Wilbur Miller. Here is Pedro's. Also here's a good quote about Alvarez:
"He has a strong arm, but has been erratic at third. Some scouts consider him athletic enough to make sufficient progress to stay at third as an average fielder. Others, not including the Pirates or Alvarez himself, believe he'll have to move to first. A bigger question mark arose, however, when he was hit by a pitch early in the 2008 season and broke the hamate bone in his right hand. Numerous articles at Baseball America and elsewhere, as well as pre-draft statements from Pirates GM Neal Huntington concerning medical advice he'd received, have indicated that an injury of that sort may detract from a hitter's power for a year or so, but should eventually cause no loss of ability."

Personal Consensus: A legitimately prodigious hitting talent by all accounts, Alvarez is expected to develop into at least a 30-40 home run type of player. There is much speculation about where he will end up playing, and I personally think we will see him at first base or right field before all is said and done, but I think there is a good chance he'll play third base at the beginning of his major league career. The guess here is that Pedro tears his way through A and AA pitching this season and makes it to Indy by season's end, though I'm not as convinced about a Pittsburgh visit, as I think leaping that far will be enough of a challenge for him. I then think he starts 2010 in AAA but is in Pittsburgh by June or July for a half season stint.


Andrew McCutchen
-Keith Law named Cutch his 18th best prospect in baseball and had this to say:
"McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn't get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn't hit for the kind of power he's capable of producing. He has great bat speed and has hit for average while making plenty of contact. He's a 65-70 runner but had an uncharacteristically sloppy year as a base stealer; he's a plus glove in center but could use a little work on routes."

-The Diamond Cutter: And another from the DC
"McCutchen is an exciting five tool player who has been unfortunately rushed through the Pirates system. He hasn’t been able to fully develop at each level and instead of staying put and working on his skills, he has been pushed through. McCutchen has a great glove in center and despite his great defensive prowess, his impact bat may be his best skill.

-Imaginary Diamond's fantasy-spun take:
"McCutchen has 20 home run, 20 stolen base potential, while already taking an advanced approach to hitting."

-MLB.com's report that also includes an interesting accompanying video:
"He's a five-tool player with terrific athletic ability to go along with plus bat speed and good pitch recognition. The development of his power will determine whether he's a leadoff hitter or an eventual run producer. He has outstanding speed and is an excellent defensive center fielder, but is still learning the nuances of base-stealing."

-From the scouting book,
"he could break in two directions: as a top-of-the-order speed threat, or a middle-of-the-order power bat as he continues to refine his approach at the plate. If his MLB career follows his minor league ascent, expect some early struggles in the majors followed by a relentless rise to greatness."

-From Armchair GM
"McCutchen projects as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder with a plus arm and plus speed and instincts. Offensively, McCutchen has a powerful upper body, and combined with quick hands and his already above average strike zone recognition, projects to hit for both a high average and with escalating power. A righthanded hitter timed at 4.1 seconds from home to first, he projects early in his career as a leadoff hitter with the potential to steal thirty bases plus."

-McCutchen's WM profile:
"His plate discipline remained good throughout the season, though, and he reduced his platoon split, posting a .742 OPS against RHPs and .836 against LHPs, so he seems to be making progress against his main nemesis, the slider. His base stealing skills obviously need a lot of work, although for some reason 2008 was the first season in which he was allowed to run a lot. It's possible that McCutchen won't be more than a speedy leadoff type, which wouldn't be such a bad thing. He has very good range in CF, although his arm is average at best."

Personal Consensus: Cutch is the closest thing the Pirates have to a major-league ready prospect. That said, he will almost certainly start the season in AAA. There are many who expect him to still develop an as-yet-unseen power stroke, but for now he appears likely to bat at the top of the order when he does get the call and maybe the power stroke will develop in time.


Jose Tabata
-From the scouting book:
"Tabata is a polished fielder who's almost major-league ready, despite his young age. A natural right fielder with excellent patience"

-From Baseball Intellect
"In terms of physical tools and raw talent, Tabata is amongst the best in minor league baseball. However, Tabata has yet to turn that talent into production."

-A report on Tabata from a Yankee blog that is over 2 years old. Obviously things have evolved a bit, but this is interesting because of the long-term projections.
"(Ceiling is) very high. In my opinion it is still limited due to size, but Tabata certainly has the ability to hit like an MVP candidate. If nothing goes terribly wrong, he is going to hit #3 somewhere someday for a long time."

-And another Yankee blog with a report on Tabata from last March.
"One of the most promising youngsters is Jose Tabata. He's a right fielder from Venezuela who's hitting and fielding have been most impressive in his three seasons in the Yankees farm system. He's got an arm like Roberto Clemente and the hitting skills of Bernie Williams."

-A report from the Diamond Cutter from when Tabata was still a Yankee has him as the number 3 prospect in the system behind Joba and Ian Kennedy (?).
"Tabata is an excellent hitter and hits the ball hard all over the field. Due to this and his great plate discipline, he looks to have the makeup to be a potential batting champion competitor someday"

-A page from Armchair GM that includes a Baseball America synopsis of Tabata and a couple videos of him down at the bottom.
"He's solidly built at 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds and will have more power as he gets stronger and more experienced. He drew more walks (15) than strikeouts (14), and while we shouldn't infer too much about his plate discipline when he's facing such raw pitching, that's definitely a positive sign. He has plus speed and the tools to play center field"

-Raise the Jolly Roger did a bio on Tabata shortly after he arrived from the Yanks.
"He has been dubbed “Mini-Manny (Ramirez)” for having quick hands and great bat speed, but also for his bad attitude."

-Tabata's Wilbur Miller Profile.
"He was considered to have five tool potential, with good speed, a very good bat with the potential to hit for power, and a slightly above average arm for right field."

Personal Consensus:
After reading through these reports, it seems like Tabata may be much closer to being major-league ready than most people realize. Obviously he is slated to start this season in AA, so that means he still has to prove himself at two more levels, but I fully expect him to dominate there. Perhaps the only reason he is in AA is because the Pirates still want to play him in center field and have Cutch in Indy. I think Tabata is in AAA by June regardless of where McCutchen is and is starting to play some corner outfield, and I wouldn't bat an eyelash to see him get a cup of coffee in September and be given a chance to win a job along side Nate and Cutch next spring.


Brad Lincoln
-From the Diamond Cutter. A list of the team's top prospects prior to last season.
"before going down he had a good moving fastball which sat in the mid-90’s as well as a hard breaking curveball. He had a little trouble with the command of his pitches before the injury so it will definitely be a tough battle for him once he comes back from the surgery. As with all Tommy John surgeries it will take about a year for Lincoln to potentially regain what he once had."

-From CBS Sportsline Blog type thing Lincoln is listed as the number 11 prospect for the Bucs.
"Lincoln throws his fastball in his low-mid 90s, and a good curveball. He has a nice comeback story unfolding if he can continue to improve next season"

-A recap of 2008 Baseball Prospectus rankings via Be Like Tike:
"Lincoln is a smallish pitcher who is also a very good hitter. More importantly to the Pirates, however, is the fact that when he is healthy, Lincoln can hit up to 95 mph. According to BP, he projects as a mid-rotation starter"

-The Bleacher Report puts together the Pirates top 10 prospects.
"The numbers, in Lincoln's case, are not nearly as significant as the fact that he was able to stay injury free. Now that he has proven that he can stay healthy, management will look for Lincoln to be one of the prospects that makes a big jump in 2009."

-From Wilbur Miller:
"Although some fans were put off by the ERAs, Lincoln's return was successful. He stayed healthy, his fastball sat around 93, and his control was very good. It may have been a little too good, as he had a moderate gopher ball problem, but one article said he was concentrating mainly on throwing strikes. He actually didn't allow many baserunners."

Personal Consensus: Along with the next guy on this list, Bryan Morris, Lincoln is really one of just two starting pitchers in the entire farm system with any sort of professional pedigree, and the sad thing is they are both probably 2 years away (at least) from the majors. Still, his first year back from injury gave us a lot of positive signs and it is probably safe to think of him in glowing terms yet again, even if he does figure to be at least 25 or 26 before he makes his debut.


Bryan Morris
-Halfway down this page from Pirate Revolution is a bit about Morris.
"Their No. 5 prospect, Baseball America figures Morris to be "a fixture in the middle of Pittsburgh's rotation by 2011 or 2012."

-Just like Tabata, Raise The Jolly Roger again did a nice job with a player bio after the acquisition of Morris.
"He may not progress very quickly, but the minor league experience is good for him. I expect Morris to be in the majors by late 2010 or in 2011, and excel at that level. I am excited about him, but we must be patient"

-From the scouting book, where Morris was the 192nd ranked prospect.
"Morris has a high-90's fastball and a plus curve, and frustrates batters with an unorthodox delivery."

-This Dodger MLB Blog had Morris as their number 9 Dodger prospect in 08.
"He has a 93 mph fastball that sinks, a wicked breaking ball and an unorthodox delivery. Could be a top of the rotation pitcher in a year or two."

-A bit of info from the Baseball Analysts on Morris from shortly after he was drafted in 2006.
"The 6-3, 200-pound RHP has a plus fastball and a power curve."

-His Wilbur Miller profile:
"He was the youngest of the four players they got in the deal and may have the highest ceiling. Morris had Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss all of 2007. He had pitched well in 2008 up through the time of the trade, though, with his fastball reaching as high as 95. He has an above-average curve and is working on a changeup. Baseball America projects him to be a potential 3rd starter."

Personal Consensus:
By all accounts it seems like Morris has shown strong progress coming back from TJ surgery, and maybe it is a bit of a blessing that it happened early to him and not after he had progressed through much of the minors. It sounds as if he is probably a minimum 2 full years away from being a big leaguer, but he is just shy of his 22nd birthday, so to me that is no big deal, and I'd be in no real rush to get him up. This will be an important year for Morris to show he isn't injury-prone.


Neil Walker
-Diamond Cutter has a report on Walker and others
"Walker has a strong frame with muscular arms and legs which give him fabulous power potential as line drives jump off his bat. He has excellent physical make-up"

-From the scouting book.
"Walker has had a bumpy road to pro ball. Now a full-time third baseman, he still shows the switch-hitting power stroke that brought him to the Pirate's attention years ago."

-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"Walker appears as if he will be an average major leaguer with trouble in the field and a little bit of power at this point."

-
From Hot Prospects:
"He continued to make strides defensively last season cutting his errors down from 27 to just 19. He shows good agility and has drawn rave reviews within the organization for his extraordinary makeup and work ethic. The big bugaboo with Neil continues to be his substandard plate discipline."

-Wilbur Miller
"He did make progress defensively, cutting down on errors and getting voted the top defensive thirdbaseman in the International League, although those awards are often based on little more than name recognition. Walker's future is in some doubt now."

Personal Consensus: With the addition of guys like Tabata, LaRoche and Alvarez and the new emphasis on spending in the draft and Latin America, it seems to me that most have decided that Walker is now basically irrelevant. I'm not so sure about that. The athleticism is still there, and while I think he probably was rushed to this point, I still think he has major league value. I don't think he'll ever be an All-Star third baseman, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn into a solid utility guy capable of playing 3B or either corner outfield spot and maybe even 1B/2B. That's not exactly what you want from a first round pick, but those type of guys certainly have value, too. I do think we see him this year in Pittsburgh, at least in September, now that he is on the 40-man.


Danny Moskos
-Diamond Cutter has a report on Moskos and others from 08 before Moskos was turned back into a starter.
"Moskos has a strong fastball in the mid-90’s (up to 96 mph), a plus slider in the mid to upper-80’s and a mediocre change-up. As a reliever he probably won’t need to rely on his change all that much especially considering how strong his slider is."

-From the scouting book.
"He's a quality arm with great stuff, including a 94mph heater and plus slider"

-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"Moskos is a three-star player according to BP, who reveals that despite Moskos’ being drafted as a reliever the Huntington administration may be considering moving him back into a starting role. Moskos still has potential"

-From the Pittsburgh Lumber Company
"His mechanics were reportedly out of whack, and he was also said to be out of shape. There were whispers right after the draft that his maximum-effort delivery could be an indication that he had already peaked. That is looking more likely as his career progresses. He no longer displays the velocity on his fastball that he was said to possess in college."

-From Wilbur Miller:
"He threw in the low- to mid-90s with a lot of life as a closer, but only 89-92 when starting, and by the end of the season he was down in the high 80s. This should be of concern to the Pirates, because the pitchers they draft have a pattern of losing velocity after turning pro. Moskos supposedly had a very good slider that served as his out pitch, along with a curve and change that were not as well regarded. BA described his command as average."

Personal Consensus: I think the Pirates were wrong last year to try and convert to Moskos to a starter, and will continue to be wrong it appears with him. He was lousy in the lower minors as a starter. I think the team and Moskos would be much better served with him as a bullpen arm. I understand their idea, but he could've progressed very quickly through the system as a reliever, and that still could happen if they switch him back. I don't know that he'll ever make it a starting pitcher in the bigs.


Ross Ohlendorf
-The numerous Yankee blogs continue to be very helpful in this exercise with this piece from 2 years ago on Ohlendorf
"I see Ohlendorf as a David Bush type if he make the majors. He can't afford to lose any more of his strikeout rate, or else he'll never get enough major league hitters out to be an effective pitcher."

-Pat from WHYGAVS does a great job with an in-depth breakdown of Ohlendorf's pitching tendencies last season.
"there's two things to keep an eye on with Ohlendorf early in the year. The first is velocity. Is he hitting the high 90s? Is he doing it the second time through the lineup? The second is pitch selection. Is he working a changeup in? Is it effective at all?"

-Another Yankee blog (good lord there is a freakin' ton of these things) that breaks down Ohlendorf. This is from November 07.
"He throws a grounder-inducing two-seamer (96-97 mph) with a four-seamer that can top out at 98. His sinker is his primary pitch. He has a nasty slurve-like pitch that really causes strikeouts."

-Good piece on the return from the Nady Trade that includes Ohlendorf halfway down the page from Baseball Intellect.
"Ohlendorf is better than his numbers in New York indicate. I think he profiles best as a solid middle reliever type. I don't think he's a top set-up guy, but in that 6th and 7th inning, he'll give the Pirates a quality reliever that is under control for a number of years."

-Of course, here's the Wilbur Miller profile
"As a starter, he threw in the upper 80s to low 90s, relying on a sinker and slider to produce grounders. Once he started pitching in relief, his velocity improved to 94 and occasionally better. He's always struggled with LH hitters due to the lack of a useful changeup."

Personal Consensus: I think there will definitely be a place for Ohlendorf somewhere on the major league staff, the question is just where that is. I fully support the Pirates decision to test him out as a starter and think that his upside makes it worthwhile to do this and give him half a season or even all season to try and prove that he is worthy of a spot in the rotation. If he doesn't work out there, by all accounts he can be at least a solid relief pitcher as a fallback option.


Shelby Ford
-The Bleacher Report puts together the Pirates top 10 prospects.
"Ford looks like he has the potential and the chops to hold down half of the double play combination in Pittsburgh for years to come."

-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"An offensive player, Ford will have difficulties advancing through the system due to his aggressive approach at the plate"

-Wilbur Miller:
"It doesn't look like he'll have more than very good gap power and he'll need to draw more walks than he did in 2008 to have a decent OBP. He hasn't shown any consistent platoon split over the years. His numbers for 2008 overall were solid and not dominant, but you have to wonder what he'd do if he stayed healthy a whole year."

Personal Consensus: In a minor league system that is mostly desperate for decent-looking prospects, I think Ford has been one of the most overlooked guys around. He has been steady, if not spectacular at each stop, and while he has had some issues staying healthy, he also has shown enough upside to merit serious consderation as a future starter. I think this year will be a very big one for Ford. If he can stay healthy and onceagain bat .280+ with another healthy OBP and some continually developing power and decent speed and a decent glove, then all of a sudden he could be a legit replacement for Freddy Sanchez. But like I said, health is the first thing that must come for Ford.


Robbie Grossman
-From Minor League Baseball:
"Grossman is a good hitter, but his approach does need some work. He has a high leg lift that will need to be toned down.

-Grossman was rated as the 45th top prospect in the draft by Rivals:
"Grossman is a throwback type prospect who plays the game with passion and at full speed at all times. Not nearly as "toolsy" as other top high school outfield prospects"

-Ranked number 9 in the Bucs system by a MiLB blogger
"Very toolsy, could be a seven skill guy if he maintains the patience he showed in very brief rookie ball trial. High ceiling, could rank much higher a year from now."

-
Wilbur Miller:
"MLB.com characterizes him as lacking any above-average tools and playing above his abilities, which combined with the tweener tag gives him some things in common with Nate McLouth, who's a good example of why it's a mistake to dismiss players based on tags like that. BA did characterize him as having raw power potential and he showed good power in a workout at PNC Park."

Personal Consensus: Grossman is a long way off, hard to have much of a consensus except that he is an all-effort type of guy by all accounts, and that like most high schoolers it will probably figures to be 4 years or so before we can reasonably expect to see him in the bigs.


Daniel McCutchen
-From the Pinstripe Press
"McCutchen's future may be in the bullpen. "McCutchen pitches aggressively, which shows in his delivery at times and in his mound demeanor. The Yankees have worked with him to tone down somewhat."

-From the Scouting Book:
"Some see him as bullpen-bound, but McCutchen's lethal combination of a high-control 92mph fastball and knee-buckling curve/splitter, as well as his penchant to change speeds often, make him look like a better starting prospect to us."

-A story on him from the Post Gazette:
"Dan is a guy we feel can be a quality starting pitcher for years to come," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said yesterday. "Tough, fearless, wants the ball every day, pounds the strike zone, throws first-pitch strikes. ... He absolutely is here competing for a job."

-A piece on the players acquired in the Nady trade from Baseball Intellect.
"McCutchen is an interesting piece in this deal because he has quietly put up quality numbers in the minors though he has always been old for his league. His stuff received an uptick in its quality in the past year, which makes him an intriguing guy to watch going forward."

-Wilbur Miller's profile:
"Baseball America characterizes him as a very aggressive pitcher who throws a four-seam fastball in the low 90s and a two-seamer slightly slower than that, with his best pitch being a curve. He also throws an improving changeup. His aggressiveness has resulted in low walk totals and his K rates have generally been good."

Personal Consensus: I'm really not at all sold on McCutchen. He is 26 years old, and you just don't see 26 year olds with only moderate minor league success succeed in the majors too often. I do think he is probably just about at his peak and will likely get at least a few starts in with the Bucs this season. There have been theories floated that he may be a bullpen arm, and I think that probably makes sense.


Donnie Veal
-Story on him from right before the Rule 5 draft.
"The stuff is still there -- evidence of that comes from his 476 strikeouts in 470 1/3 pro innings. But his command has eluded him, with 256 walks in the same timespan."

-From Chicago Cubs Online, an article from 2 years ago:
"Donald Veal has had success at each level so far and if he continues to have success as he ascends through the Cubs minor-league system, he could see Wrigley Field soon. If he does start in AA this year he could be called on to make a start if the Cubs injury problems come back again this season."

-Ominous stuff from the Scouting Book
"showing no signs of the curve that once made scouts rave. Add in the fact that he's a one-pitch flame-thrower who did most of his development under the 'care' of the Cubs trainers, and you have a recipe for a very fantastic, and very short, major league career."

-The requisite Wilbur Miller feature
"He's drawn comparisons to Dontrelle Willis, as he's a big LHP with a high leg kick and very good stuff, including a mid-90s fastball. After his big 2006 season, he was regarded as one of the best LH pitching prospects in the minors, with the high K rates and miniscule opponents' BAs being especially outstanding. Once he reached AA, though, he stalled due to his poor control."

Personal Consensus: I like Veal as a prospect, but really don't think he can survive the season with the big club. Maybe the Bucs can work out something like they did with Evan Meek last season, but I just can't seem him being good enough to justify using a roster spot on him for 6 months. The kid just isn't ready yet.


Jim Negrych
-A story on Negrych from the Green Weenie blog:
"Negrych cranks out line drives, and has pretty good gap power. He's patient at the dish, and his walks to K's ratio is almost 1:1. Throw in the fact that he finally had an injury-free year, and it added up to a break out season."

-A story on him from the Trib
"Despite his credentials as a college slugger, Negrych no longer swings from his heels in every at-bat. 'I don't really look at power numbers. I just want to make contact and get on base,' he said. 'In college, I was supposed to hit home runs. At this level, there's a lot of other things you can do to help the team.'"

-From Wilbur Miller
"I suspect his exact position could remain rather fluid. His position probably isn't terribly relevant because he is not good defensively, and by this I don't mean "shaky" or "inconsistent," I mean he just doesn't have the tools to play defense. He committed 31 errors in 2008. He's awkward in the field and doesn't have good hands or a good arm. It's unlikely he'll be a regular in the majors, but he could be a very good bat off the bench."

Personal Consensus: I essentially agree with what Wilbur Miller suggested. I think Negrych's bat will continue to propel him through the minors and that he will force his way into the bigs at some point, but I also don't see him ever being anywhere near good enough to be a legit starting player and could just be a solid bat off the bench who can play a few different infield positions at a mediocre level. I like Negrych and will be rooting for him because he is a Pitt man and I can't tell you the last time a Pitt player played in the bigs, but it was quite a while ago I'm sure.


Brian Bixler
-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"Bixler does nothing particularly well, but instead does everything at a level that is a little bit above average and simply continues to move up the rungs."

-From Wilbur Miller:
"Bixler was overmatched at the plate, incessantly chasing sliders far outside, sometimes fanning on three straight pitches in the same location. Initially, he was just as bad defensively, struggling with errors and misplays, but he eventually settled down and started to play much better in the field."

Personal Consensus: Bleh. Thats how I can best sum up my feelings for Bixler's future with the Pirates. He once looked like a half-decent prospect, but he was pretty lousy last year in the majors and I think can officially be labeled with the AAAA prospect tag. There is a very good chance that Bix and Luis Cruz will split the shortstop role once the inevitable Jack Wilson trade goes down. I'd be happy if he even proved to be a mediocre replacement.


Jamie Romak
-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"Romak has power and he has patience, but he generally does not hit for average."

-The Bleacher Report puts together the Pirates top 10 prospects. Romak is tied for 10.
"He has yet to prove that he can hit consistently enough to be a big league player. With a logjam of prospects ahead of him at outfield it is unlikely that we will see Romak with the club in 2009. But if he continues to make progress and work on hitting consistency, there's no reason that Romak can't make a splash with the Pirates in 2010 and beyond. "

-From the Project Prospect site
" A 6-foot-2, 220-pounder, Romak is the best .256 hitter you’ve never seen, tabbing a .383 OBP and .496 SLG through High-A."

-The Wilbur Miller piece
"Romak's approach at the plate is very similar to fellow Canadian Jason Bay's, as he often goes deep into counts by taking pitches and looking for one he can drive, but this sometimes leads to him getting into bad counts. Like a lot of hitters of his type, he tends sometimes to disappear offensively for days at a time. The strikeouts can't just be dismissed"

Personal Consensus: Romak to me is a poor man's Steve Pearce. And that is not a good thing in any way. I'd honestly be surprised if he ever gets anything more than a cup of coffee with the Pirates.


10 Other Guys To Keep An Eye On Who I Couldn't Find Much About:
Quinton Miller
Jordy Mercer
Chase D'Arnaud
Justin Wilson
Evan Meek
Brian Friday
Duke Welker
Jarek Cunningham
Matt Hague
Jeff Sues
Andrew Walker

Note that all of the above quotes are not mine and are taken from the sites linked above them. If these are your quotes and you have any issues whatsoever with me using them, please let me know and they will be removed immediately. Thank you.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Pirates Stove Heating Up

After a slow and incredibly boring start to their offseason that culminated with the signing of Ramon Vazquez, the Pirates look as though they are finally set to make some moves to get things jumpstarted. And that is at least a little bit encouraging for us sickened Pirates fans.

Obviously the big highlight is the contract extension signed by Ryan Doumit yesterday. The contract for Doumit is a pretty nice on in my eyes. The deal should really only be evaluated on its 3 year amount, as I've always thought its pretty foolish to base any deal on the options because its so difficult to say what the state of Doumit and the state of the Pirates will be 3 years from now. Plus, if Doumit performs like the Pirates hope, the last year will likely be irrelevant, either because the team has turned itself around and the Bucs sign him to a new extension before that sesaon, or because the team still hasn't turned around and they deal him for spare parts (God I hope not!).

The three year deal has guaranteed money of 11.5 million, which is a pretty reasonable base pay for a catcher capable of becoming one of the 2 or 3 best hitters in the bigs at his position. If Doumit were to play all 5 years here and reach max incentives (highly unlikely given some of the clauses) the deal could reach 27 million, but if he does reach max incentives, then this deal is pretty much highway robbery for the Bucs it'd be so good.
The curious, and perhaps creative, thing about this deal is that the option years are triggered or declined at the same time. I can't recall seeing this type of deal anywhere else, though it's probably been exercised somewhere. So this essentially amounts to a 3 year contract and then a 2 year contract if the Pirates want it to be. The options are for at least 7.25 and 8.25 million per season (they go up if he reaches some clauses), so that second contract would be quite lucrative for Doumit and quite expensive for the Pirates if they choose to exercise it.
Some other moves the Pirates are making or considering:
-It appears neither Paul Maholm or Nate McLouth are going to get extensions done with the Pirates. Not too surprising, and in all honesty, I'm not too upset about either case. It may not be a popular view, but I think McLouth is headed for a regression season in 2009. Don't get me wrong, I like Nate, but to pay him based on his 08 season is folly, and I want to see it again from in 2009 before I am a firm believer. Never before in his career had he really performed anywhere near the level of last season, and I was also concerned by the major drop-off in his numbers following the all-star break last season. His OPS fell by over 100 points between his great pre-break numbers and his only a little above average post-break numbers. I do think he is definitely a nice starter around which the team can certainly build, but I don't see the urgency to lock him up. The same goes for Paul Maholm. I think Maholm is also a good piece to build upon, but I don't view him as much more than a 3 starter and think he could also be headed for a regression. He rarely gets any bats to miss, which isn't what you need from a top starter if you look at things from a statistical standpoint.
-The Pirates lost out on the Daniel Cabrera sweepstakes (oh darn...) but apparently were willing to bid quite a bit of money for his services, more even than the team Cabrera ended up signing with, the Washington Nationals, who gave him an exorbitant 2.6 million dollars. Really? The Pirates were going to offer him more than 2.6 million dollars? Who the hell thought that was a good idea. Sure the guy's got some skills, but look at these numbers! What part of those statistics offers encouragement to baseball people? Why are they constantly so enamored with Cabrera? I mean, maybe, just maybe, he just needed a change of scenery and his absolutely dreadful 2008 season was just the result of that, but is is worth 2.6 million dollars to find out? Absolutely not! This guy should be coming into major league camps on a minor-league deal, at best. If teams keep throwing this kind of dough at him, where's his incentive to improve?

-It appears as though the Bucs are more than willing to head into 2009 with Jumpin' Jack playing shortstop. Not exactly a shock at this point. And truth be told, I'm not too upset about this development, as clearly any prospect return would have been pretty minimal. My question, though, is this: Why not similarly offer to trade Freddy Sanchez? I know the Pirates just gave him an extension last offseason, but it's not like he is badly overpaid. And second base, for whatever reason, has become a much more scarce position in MLB nowadays than shortstop. Granted, they'd be trading Freddy at his lowest value in a couple years, always a no-no, but at least there are several teams out there that think he can at least return to 07 form if not his award winning 06 form. In 07, he had a .785 OPS, with a respectable .343 OBP. There are several teams with holes at second base right now where Freddy would be an upgrade at those numbers: Major upgrade for the Mets, White Sox, A's, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Royals (hard to say if they'd really be interested though), and Padres (unlikely because they're rebuilding, but still), and slight upgrade for Arizona, Cleveland (only slight because Asdrubal Cabrera is much younger and still has upside), the Twins (I'm not at all sold on Alexi Casilla and I doubt they are either), the Dodgers (Blake Dewitt has a nice upside, but is coming off a solid but unspectacular rookie campaign for a team that wants to contend now), the Giants (unlikely because they are rebuilding and have some in-house prospects). That's an awful lot of teams that Neal Huntington should be spinning his web to, and, while behind the scenes he may be, it certainly isn't a widely known fact, which makes me think it probably isn't a very active front.
-Denny Bautista will be brought back on a minor-league deal, and Chris Bootcheck was similarly signed to a minor league deal. Nothing too exciting at all on either one of these fronts, and let's hope both don't have to put on the Pirates jersey at any time after March.

-The Pirates are apparently after Rocco Baldelli, which is a surprising twist that I certainly didn't see coming. I mean yeah Baldelli has a load of talent, but he's been hurt how many times over the years, and is still dealing with the bizarre disorder that is plaguing his body and has caused him to miss a ton of time. Unless this is a very low-commitment deal, I don't like what I'm hearing. With Brandon Moss on the mend and little else in the way of outfield talent besides Nate McLouth looking major league capable (sorry I'm not at all a Nyjer Morgan fan), I'd rather put our resources elsewhere (like bringing back the now lost Jason Michaels) then pinning hopes on a deal with the enigmatic Baldelli.

-Hyzdu Headquarters has a rundown of the top 10 prospects in the Pirates system according to Kyle Stark on a recent FSN piece. I was a little surprised to see Andrew McCutchen ahead of Pedro Alvarez, but suspect that's mostly just because Stark hasn't seen enough of Pedro as a pro to fully grasp his abilities. I was also a little surprised to see Neil Walker all the way up at 6 given his struggles of the last two seasons, but then again, who else would be ahead of him? Also interesting was that Stark noted the two guys on that list to watch out for in this coming season are the two McCutchens, the aforementioned Andrew and the unmentioned Daniel. I suspect Daniel will probably not make the opening day rotation but will be among the first one or two called up when the inevitable ineffectiveness/ injury hits a starter early in the season. But I was much more excited to finally hear someone in the Pirates organization openly admit that Andrew McCutchen is close to big-league ready. Again, I don't think he is given much of a chance to make the opening day roster, but remember 2 years ago when he had a phenomenal spring and many in and around the franchise were claiming he could be up by mid-season 07? Yeah...so much for that. It seems like Cutch has been our top prospect forever, yet he just recently turned 22 years old. I think that, given the alarming lack of talent in the outfield, McCutchen will be all but forced into the bigs by the June or July when the team finally gives up on Nyjer Morgan as a everyday guy. To me this makes a world of sense, because he will be able to work out a lot of the kinks that typically plague rookies for these few months, and then should have an excellent footing established for the 2010 season. Not that any rational team would plan like this, but it would also enable the Pirates to get Jose Tabata time in Center Field in AAA, as he figures to be ready about a year after McCutchen, maybe slightly less.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Only to the Pirates

In case you've missed it, the Pirates are locking horns with Pedro Alvarez and Scott Boras as we speak in quite possibly the most bizarre storyline yet from a series of already bizarre storylines. Check our old friend Dejan Kovacevic's PBC Blog for the complete up-to-the-minute details, and for now I wanted to weigh in with a few of my personal opinions.

I truly don't understand just what the heck Boras is doing here. He essentially is making two demands/claims here, one is that the Pirates signed Pedro Alvarez after the stated deadline, thus voiding his contract. The other is that, because of this, the Pirates should negotiate with Pedro Alvarez to a more amenable contract by their standards. Uhmm...what? What the hell does that even mean?

How can both of those things happen in the same vein of reality? If Boras gets his first request granted, that Alvarez was signed after the deadline and his deal should be voided, then the contract is terminated, does not go into effect and the Pirates certainly cannot then negotiate with him.

Seriously, this makes no sense whatsoever. And the big question now (besides what the end game here is) is, what took so long for this to come out? Seriously, the deadline was just about 2 weeks ago (okay 12 days), if this was an issue, why did it take up until now to come out? Why wasn't Boras raising a stink on the 16th or 17th?

My theory? I think ol' Scotty was shot down by the Alvarez family when the Pirates wouldn't pony up the dough, and the family threatened to go around him to get the contract with the Pirates, so Boras relented, but slowly, he began to whisper his poison into Pedro's ear. After a few days of this, Pedro was spun around and him and Boras were now united through Boras' manipulation, and now they are fighting against the Pirates for the money they feel that they deserve.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Bloggin' the deadline away

5:24 With the looming signing deadline just a few hours off, I decided I'd live blog the next few hours, probably 'til about 8:00 or so, so I won't be able to cover everything, but let's hope something happens between now and then so we can FEEL THE EXCITEMENT! Anyway, it's been a busy couple days for the Pirates, signing Fresno State starting pitcher Justin Wilson for slot money a couple days ago, OF Robbie Grossman for (channeling my inner Dr. Evil) 1 miiiiiillllion dollars, and starting pitcher Quinton Miller for 900,000 dollars. All of them are pretty highly regarded, and this will certainly bolster the Pirates minor league depth, hopefully with a little bit of the quality that they have lacked as opposed to the quantity that they recently received. Updates in a bit...
5:48 Doesn't seem to be a ton happening right now. Most of my sources are dry at this point, though if you aren't a regular checker of the PBC Blog on the Post-Gazette website I just don't know what to tell you any more. In the mean time, if you are wondering what I am up to, I'm snacking on some pizza (mmmm....pizza), sipping on a coke, and watching That 70's Show. An all-around good time thus far. I'm on the lookout for something, anything, so let's hope that I scrouge up some sort of info for a post in a bit.
6:00 A story is up on the PG website about Pedro. DK gives his feeling and I agree. He also makes it sound like the Buccos may be backpedaling a bit on the Major League contract part. In fact, if they can do it in order to get Alvarez to agree to a little less of a signing bonus, then I would absolutely agree to it. My best guess is that Pedro gets a major league deal from the Bucs for 6.5 million dollars, and that it will be a bit backloaded to lower the Net Present Value (yes I am a business student in college). More in a few...
6:12 Here is a scouting reports courtesy of Baseball America

On Quinton Miller
-"The 6-foot-3 Miller has a quick arm and has shown a fastball reaching 93-94 mph at times. He has a feel for pitching and flashes a good, hard slider and average changeup at his best. However, his velocity dipped into the upper 80s at times this spring, and his fastball can straighten out."
-He is also a senior in high school and will likely not do anything for the Bucs until he reports to Instructional League in Bradenton in September.
-My best guess is he spend the entirety of next year with Low A Hickory, unless of course he were to do well there, and then we could see him make in appearance in Lynchburg, but I find that to be his highest possible ceiling for '09. Expect him to be 3-4 years (at least) until he reaches MLB, though I don't think we'd surprised if it was more then that.

6:28 Interesting piece by the Trib's Guy Junker, who is one of my favorite Pittsburgh sports personalities. The conundrum facing Huntington does appear to be that he needs to prove himself before Nutting agrees to open the purse strings, as I guess Nutting is too scarred from the past failures, but to tell you the truth, that is no way to run a business. Anyway, no updates on Alvarez right now it doesn't seem.

6:51 Sorry for the delay friends, I just pumped out another Pitt column, so enjoy. Obviously nothing new to report on Pedro, just basically waiting around. Here's Baseball America's scoop on Robbie Grossman:
" A switch-hitter with raw power from both sides of the plate as well as average speed, he projected as a sandwich- or second-round pick but slid because of signability. He had committed to Texas."
Not much of a scouting report I must admit, but that's about all anyone seems to know about him.

7:02 Alright folks, I've gotta run, still nothing on the Alvarez front, sorry to cut it short.

Monday, August 4, 2008

Pirates Finally Have The Right People In Place

This was published following the selection of Pedro Alvarez in the MLB Draft. Though Pedro has not yet signed, and the trades the team made are highly questionable right now, I stand by what I wrote here. Of course if they don't sign Alvarez...

Stop me if you've heard this before...
It's looking more and more like the Pirate organization finally seems to have found the guys at the top of the organization to lead them forward to (gasp) winning baseball and even (nearly passing out) contending in the National League on a yearly basis.
(CUE SCREECHING BRAKE NOISES)
Oh, so you have heard this before then? Well, that makes two of us. In fact, chances are that you have heard this before multiple times. It was written when Cam Bonifay and Dave Littlefield both came aboard, and was certainly written in 1997 when the Freak Show Pirates team put up a stunning march into first place for most of the season that culminated in a second place finish and the team's best record since '92. It was written about Dave Littlefield upon his hiring in 2002, and also in the opening months of his reign of terror when he made deals that actually weren't completely atrocious. And now, we are seeing these articles nowadays about Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington.
Make no mistake, though, this time it seems to be real. Nutting clearly has given the go-ahead to spend, something ne never did with Dunce Littlefield or Clueless Bonifay (this is how these two will henceforth be known). Coonelly clearly has demanded more from Nutting in all departments, and I feel that it is likely that this was the only way he would have taken this job in the first place.
Coonelly's commitment and determination has trickled down to both Huntington and new skipper John Russell, both of which were hires that I questioned heavily at the time, but now certainly look significantly better with time.
Sure, the Pirates are still mired in the depressing land of sub .500 ball, but given the vast wasteland that was their organizational depth chart last fall, I have been very much impressed with all that I have seen from the Buccos this year, and think that maybe, just maybe we can turn the corner with this squad.
However, like I've said, we have all heard this before, and it is definitely concerning to note that we have all been before, excited to see the Pirates in 2-3 seasons and thinking that with all of these young players they are expected to accrue, that the Pirates can contend long-run. This only further proves that the only way these idle words will ever mean anything is to get those W's. While the '08 Pirates will likely never be confused with their late 70's and early 90's brethren but management has taken a few minor steps in the right direction over the past several months, and a biggie came yesterday in the MLB Draft.
All week long, we had heard that Pedro Alvarez was the Pirates man, and every scout was very high on him, many even going so far as to say that he was the best player in the draft. But regardless of all this, I was abjectly terrified when it came time to make the pick. I know, I know, every sign on planet earth pointed to Pedro Alvarez going here, but 15 years of losing has jaded me to the point where I was afraid of seeing "Brian Matusz RHP" pop up when they were picking or maybe even someone I'd never heard of, a la Moskos last season. When one of the longest 5 minutes periods of my life came to a conclusion and the live Draft Tracker informed me that the Pirates had, in fact, taken 3B Pedro Alvarez from Vanderbilt, it took every fiber of my being to avoid hopping up from my chair and doing multiple fist pumps and terrifying the bejesus out of my co-workers.
The rest of the day yesterday, especially the two plus hours I was still at work for, I was pondering the long-term future of the Pirates and really began to feel pretty positive about the organization for the first time in many years. This club isn't afraid to spend, as long as it's in a smart long-term investment that could pay off enormously long-term. This club knows that the best and most logical way for a small market team to contend with youth and long-term, smart cotnract. And, perhaps, most important, this club knows how to appeal to its long disenchanted fans, by being honest with the fans and not feeding us the typical B.S. that we have seen. Instead, they acknowledge the obvious, that both the fans and the team know this a long-term effort, and that signing the likes of Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders, and Jeromy Burnitz in order to win 75 games instead of 68 is a useless tactic. I mean heck, even fans who have been beaten down for 15 years and have become completely and totally apathetic can understand that, and will certainly respect the organization more when, for the first time in 15 years, they actually begin to do something right.