It's Bizarro World

Thing of beauty isn't it? This typically happens for, at most, one day a season so I needed to make sure I documented it in some form.

What a way to start the season of, too. One of the more dramatic Bucco games in my recent memory, probably due in large part to the fact that the season is not yet irrelevant.

Just to recap and show how much of an idiot I really am:
-I've spent weeks and months shouting about Nyjer Morgan stinks and doesn't deserve a starting spot and how the Pirates should turn him into a pinch-running specialist/ 4th outfielder and get it over with. He had the best day of anyone with 3 hits and 2 ha-yuge RBI's from the leadoff spot and looked fine out in left field.
-Jack Wilson, who earlier today I said "falls off a cliff this season at the plate and won't even be tradeable for a few spare fungos by season's end" was the late-game hero after a rusty start with that double off of the surprisingly hittable Jason Motte.
-Andy LaRoche was pretty much the worst player on the field after I pegged him more than once as the most likely breakout candidate on the roster.
-I also said Paul Maholm's numbers would regress a bit this season, but he looked very good for a first start and was definitely better than anything the Cards threw out there, especially his counterpart Adam Wainwright who just didn't seem to have it all together.

Of course, one game isn't going to change my opinions obviously and I still stand by everything that I've said. But for one day all those guys pretty much did the exact opposite of what I said they were gonna do. Nothing builds up a blog's credibility quite like that, eh?

Of course, I also said the Bucs were gonna go 71-91 and if the Bucs do the exact opposite of that and go 91-71 I will be more than fine with having those god-awful predictions on record.

For one day we have a first place baseball club calling Pittsburgh its home, so let's all enjoy it.

Opening Day At Long Last

There are few cooler things than Opening Day baseball. Even if you are just casual about the sport, you have to love the start of the season. It is the ultimate American sporting day, probably just a notch below the opening day of March Madness. And although we have some apparent postponed games today (already two are tallied up), today is still going to be an exciting one, just to know that the sport is finally back and that the games finally count after such a ridiculously long spring training period this year.

Paul Maholm will take the hill for the Bucs a bit later on today as long as it isn't freaking snowing in St. Louis. Because the season kicks off today, I wanted to finally get down my personal predictions for the players and the team as a whole, as any predictions that come after the start of the opener come with an asterisk attached to them. So here we go:

Batters
Ryan Doumit: 465 AB .297 BA/ .360 OBP/ .480 SLG
Adam LaRoche 387 AB .276/ .346/ .481 (Traded in late July)
Freddy Sanchez 573 AB .295/ .332/ .403
Jack Wilson 478 AB .270/ .308/ .369
Andy LaRoche 521 AB .271/ .353/ .445
Nyjer Morgan 237 AB .270/ .331/ .354
Nate McLouth 570 AB .275/ .357/ .461
Brandon Moss 486 AB .265/ .334/ .453
Andrew McCutchen 263 AB .262/ .340/ .384
Eric Hinske 346 AB .257/ .343/ .454
Ramon Vasquez 302 AB .248/ .314/ .384
Craig Monroe 194 AB .227/ .295/ .418
Luis Cruz 244 AB .246/ .292/ .357
Jason Jaramillo 111 AB .243/ .333/ .342

Pitchers
Paul Maholm 213 IP 4.06 ERA 147 K 1.33 WHIP 12-12 Record
Ian Snell 178 IP 4.40 ERA 143 K 1.42 WHIP 10-11 Record
Zach Duke 174 IP 4.91 ERA 85 K 1.55 WHIP 8-13 Record
Ross Ohlendorf 151 IP 4.65 ERA 112 K 1.48 WHIP 7-9 Record
Jeff Karstens 120 IP 4.80 ERA 72 K 1.51 WHIP 5-7 Record
Daniel McCutchen 83 IP 5.10 ERA 64 K 1.62 WHIP 2-5 Record
Matt Capps 70 IP 2.57 ERA 54 K 1.03 WHIP 37 Saves
John Grabow 46 IP 3.91 ERA 40 K 1.26 WHIP (traded in late July)
Tyler Yates 63 IP 4.43 ERA 57 K 1.49 WHIP
Sean Burnett 65 IP 4.85 ERA 40 K 1.58 WHIP
Evan Meek 51 IP 3.88 ERA 38 K 1.39 WHIP
Craig Hansen 47 IP 5.36 ERA 34 K 1.70 WHIP
Jesse Chavez 40 IP 5.63 ERA 25 K 1.80 WHIP
Donnie Veal 10 IP 8.10 ERA 5 K 2.00 WHIP

Obviously, I'm not projecting this out to be a very good baseball team. There is a definite lack of power, especially if a projected Adam LaRoche trade goes through. The bullpen is going to be a cobbled-together mess for the most part. Really, I only have a couple guys with breakout-type seasons. I like Evan Meek a lot and think he will be up with this team before May 1st and will become our best righty setup man by year's end. I also think Andy LaRoche has a nice season at third base (a .798 OPS would have placed him anywhere between 9th and 12 among qualifying major league third basemen in each of the past 5 seasons. Not too shabby.) I think Ryan Doumit will have a lower SLG, but only because the batting average may drop a bit. If anything, I'd guess his home run total increases (to 20 or so) and that the doubles total decreases a bit. Brandon Moss will be a serviceable corner outfielder at the plate (not in the field though) and can at least hold the fort down until Tabata is ready at some point in 2010.

I think Jack Wilson falls off a cliff this season at the plate and won't even be tradeable for a few spare fungos by season's end. I also think Nate McLouth's power regresses a bit. Andrew McCutchen is not going to be the immediate savior we are all praying for. Don't get me wrong, I've seen this kid play and think he will be VERY good, but a .724 OPS probably is around the range we should reasonably expect. Any more than that, and it's a gift. This season is just about getting him comfortable with the bigs to the point that he is capable of a big 2010 season. Nyjer Morgan gives us so-so numbers but clearly isn't starter material. Freddy Sanchez's average bounces back but the power doesn't and he begins to stumble down that same cliff his buddy Jack is struggling with. I also think Craig Monroe stinks the joint out this season. I don't like Monroe much, and the only reason I see him getting as many at-bats as I have him slated for is because the Pirates need some power.

As for the pitching...it ain't sexy. Paul Maholm's ERA was a bit too good last season, and while I still like Maholm and think he'll turn in a decent year I think that a 4.00 ERA is more in his range. I think Snell bounces back a bit, as he was bit by some bad luck on the mound last year, and that Duke gives us a second consecutive year of mediocrity. At this point, there's no reason to expect anything different from the Duke. I like Ohlendorf to show some flashes this season and provide a glimmer of hope as a 3/4 starter type for the coming years. And I think Karstens will be one of the better number 5 starters we have seen in Pittsburgh, but that's not really a complement. I also predict that Tom Gorzelanny doesn't pitch an inning in Pittsburgh and makes the dreaded trip to Mobile to see Dr. Andrews, as his struggles seem best explained by an injury to me.

In the bullpen I figure Matt Capps has a big year as the closer and could challenge for 40 saves. I also think this is the season that the long-rumored John Grabow trade finally comes to fruition. Other than Meek there's nothing here to be surprised or excited about.

All in all, I'm projecting a 71-91 record for the Pirates in the coming season, and the sad thing is I think I'm probably being a little optimistic considering all these issues.

Three Rivers Three Links: April 3

1. Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke brings up the very relevant topic of the economic impact not just on the Pirates this season but also on how it could damage some of their long-term plans. At some point, I'm gonna post on this myself, but that's still a work-in-progress. Still, WHYGAVS makes excellent points across the board, especially in regard to the spending the Pirates finally started last season within their system. If the Pirates aren't able to invest as much into the draft or Latin America they lose any chance of making up ground on the other organizations. Also interesting is that there is, I think, a very good description of the backwards-thinking that might occur this season among Pirate fans upset over the record-breaking losing season. "These are the fans that either don't pay enough attention to understand what Huntington's doing, don't understand the intricacies of rebuilding a baseball franchise, or simply don't have the patience to wait."

2. Hey look, this blog doesn't get a running joke when it sees one! I wouldn't think it would be terribly hard to grasp that fans making up t-shirts to celebrate beating a community college and "chirping" before the game is a running joke among the fans. When you're a Pirate fan, you NEED to have a sense of humor about yourself. It's the only way to survive. But yet this blog completely flips out for no reason and uses capital letters about how "YOU’RE SUPPOSED TO BEAT THEM!!" Yeah, sure we are, but even a casual fan can look at the box score and see that it shows that the Pirates were more interested in getting different guys' work then winning the game. While some of our top prospects may have played (Cutch, Tabata, Walker, and Bixler all played but were pulled very early) the pitchers were a bunch of scrubs. Like I said, I couldn't possibly be less concerned about this loss considering Virgil Vasquez and Dave Davidson were the culprits on the mound. So please baseball blogs the world over, don't go so ridiculously over the top with your hyperbole to try and tell us that an exhibition game with prospects and scrubs losing to a college team means the Pirates "crush the hopes and dreams of their fans" for the season.

3. Jon Heyman, one of the most underrated writers out there, lists 30 breakout candidates for the 09 baseball season. Whether you are interested for fantasy reasons or just curiosity, it's worth a look. Number 1 on that list? None other than Paul Maholm. No other Bucs make an appearance, though, but I am excited about having multiple players listed here on my fantasy teams.

Breaking Down The Potential Rotation

Okay this whole previewing the Pirates thing player-by-player thing is starting to get to me a little bit. Its just too...slow for my tastes. But this is my first time doing this sort of thing on my blog, and I have every intention of seeing it through to the end, but at the same time I want to cheat a little bit with regard to one of the most hotly contended positions on the roster, the starting pitchers.

And, in case you haven't noticed, I'm a definite math nut and like to size things up based on odds and percentages and what not, so I figured I'd give a percentage chance for each of the 10 "contenders" that Joe Kerrigan designated as potential starter candidates, along with a bit of an anecdote about each player. I also through out an over/under for each starter for the number of starts they make with the Bucs. Let me know which way you'd wager.

Paul MaholmI've got to be honest, I did not see Maholm's breakout season coming last year, and I'm still not 100% sold that he is as good as his numbers indicate last year. I do think he's a definite very solid 3/4 starter, but when I watch him pitch I just don't see your typical ace material. But, hey, I'd love for him to keep proving me wrong.

There is absolutely no doubt though that Maholm is the Bucs ace for this season, will start every fifth day as long as his arm is healthy, and is as steady a pitcher as I can remember seeing wearing the black and gold.
Opening Day Rotation: 100%
Over/Under on season starts: 29.5

Ian Snell
If there is a player in this mix with ace-like potential (and I'm not sure that there is), it's most definitely Snell. He has a nasty demeanor to go with nasty stuff a solid, power arm and the ability to dominate when he's rolling. Unfortunately, Snell has yet to fully harness his abilities and his temperment, as evidenced by his incredibly disappointing 2008 season.

Snell figures to be given a lot of chances to right his ship given his extremely impressive upside. He also has become a workhorse with 3 straight 31+ start seasons. If he's healthy, he'll be out there.
Opening Day Rotation: 100%
Over/Under on season starts: 29.5

Zach Duke
I covered Duke just the other day in the previews, so I'm not going to spend much time rehashing him here. I just wanted to add that this percentage is on the organization's overall feeling about Duke, not my own personal. Reports are that he mostly has an opening day roster spot mostly sewn up. I'm not entirely sure I agree with this, but that's the rumor.
Opening Day Rotation: 95%
Over/Under on season starts: 25.5

Tom Gorzelanny
Gorzo is one of the more interesting cases on the roster. Its hard to get a good read on where the Pirates front office really stands on him. Certainly he had quite a promising 2007 season, but he was incredibly lackluster last season and new management has seen next to zero quality performance from Gorzo since they took over.
He is reportedly in better shape this spring, which is excellent to hear considering he had some issues with his conditioning(as you can see above). I mean, he was never in danger of becoming the next Jimmy Anderson, but it was something of a concern and a definite target on his back when he struggled last year. If Gorzo gets an opening day rotation spot, he could well end up putting 30 starts and close to 200 innings again. Or, he could disappoint in the spring games, end up in AAA early and not be able to crack a suddenly deeper Pirate staff for quite some time.
Opening Day Rotation: 70%
Over/Under on season starts: 20.5

Ross Ohlendorf
Given Ohlendorf's pedigree and his overall abilities I think the Pirates would very much like to slot Ohlendorf into the back of their rotation, and barring an absolute collapse or an impressive spring by McCutchen or Karstens or Gorzo or all of them, I think that odds are good they will give him at least a shot. Ohlendorf also gives the Pirates another potential power arm in the rotation, something to really consider when you figure there are probably two crafty lefty types with spots assured. Having a contrast like Ross would be a nice change of pace, similar to Ian Snell.
Opening Day Rotation: 65%
Over/Under on season starts: 22.5

Jeff Karstens
Karstens made one hell of a debut in the Burgh last season, nearly throwing a perfect game in his second start after an almost-as-impressive performance in his first start. He came back to Earth a bit as the season wore on, but his surprising showing certainly had to catch the attention of the Pirates front office.

However, its more than likely that the red-hot debut was simply Karstens playing above his means in a league that didn't know what to expect from him. He doesn't have anything flashy in his repetoire, but definitely is a good depth guy to have and certainly deserves at least a shot at a rotation role. I'm not sure he'll get it, and he could be looking at a long relief role or a stint in Indy, but there's little question he figures to spend some time in Pittsburgh at some point.
Opening Day Rotation: 50%
Over/Under on season starts: 14.5

Daniel McCutchen
McCutchen was yet another piece in the Xavier Nady trade that I think will end up looking like a bargain if even one of McCutchen and the previous two starters ends up turning into a solid piece in the rotation. I'm not yet sure that the other McCutchen is really ready for the show yet, as his AAA numbers after the trade were only mediocre.

Given how much major league rotations change over the course of a season, I fully expect we'll see Daniel in Pittsburgh at some point this season, but I think he'll need some seasoning first.
Opening Day Rotation: 15%
Over/Under on season starts: 8.5

Phil Dumatrait
Dumatrait was a big-time overachiever last season after being picked off the scrap heap from Cincinnati. However, his success was short-lived due to unfortunate injury. It's hard to get a bead on him this season, especially considering he was originally expected to be healthy for camp, then wasn't going to be, then was sorta healthy and could be a reliever but not a starter, and then finally was deemed to be a starter candidate. I'm not sure I buy it. I think Dumatrait is a nice depth piece to have, but he has taken a major tumble from where he was last summer before his injury on the organizational depth chart, and I think ends up as the long reliever on April 6.
Opening Day Rotation: 5%
Over/Under on season starts: 6.5

Jason Davis
There's basically no conceivable way he ends up in the Opening Day rotation barring some sort of plague or catastrophe. I suppose that, with another rash of injuries like the one that caused the Yoslan Herrera disaster of a year ago we could see him in the Burgh, but let's all just keep our fingers crossed that he spends the year toeing the rubber in Indy, or at most working as long man for the Pirates for a brief stint. Even that would be a little frightening.
Opening Day Rotation: 0%
Over/Under on season starts: 0.5

Jimmy Barthmaier
Barthmaier was basically thrown into this mix by Joe Kerrigan to give them an even 10 guys in their spring rotation. He'll be gone as soon as the schedule evens out and the other starters stretch their arms out enough that his services aren't needed. Similar to Davis, I don't want him anywhere near John Russell's starting lineup card.
Opening Day Rotation: 0%
Over/Under on season starts: 0.5

Pirates Overpay 4 Players

We actually have some Pirates news that is worth me spending a few minutes typing up! Downright shocking, right? The news is that the Bucs signed 4 of the 6 players on their roster that were set for arbitration. Adam LaRoche, John Grabow, Zach Duke, and Tyler Yates were the quartet who signed and Paul Maholm and Nate McLouth were the pair who didn't.

The elder LaRoche signed for 1 year and... 7.05 million dollars! If that seems a solid 2 million dollars too high to you... then you and I think very much alike. I know that LaRoche made 5 million dollars last year, so his salary figured to go up to the 7 million range, but what on earth did he do last season to deserve a raise of even 1 penny? He spent the first few months of the season crapping the bed yet again, and by the time he put together his inevitable second half comeback, the Pirates were already in the division cellar and were packing things in for the 2009 season. The end of season numbers are fine and he cranked out 25 home runs with an .841 OPS, but he was atrocious in the first half. I hate this mindset of a guy getting a raise just because its a new season and he wasn't completely awful for the entire season. LaRoche's deal should have given him 5-6 million or so in guaranteed cash and then should have had crazy incentives that could have propped it up to 9 million, or maybe more if they were lofty incentives (20 first half home runs, a .300 batting average, a .900 OPS, you get the idea). I just can't fathom that we live in a sports world where Adam LaRoche is the worst hitting first baseman in baseball for three straight months in 2008 and then gets a 2 million dollar raise to start the following season because he hit well when there was absolutely, positively no pressure on him. In case you couldn't tell, I'm not a LaRoche fan.

The other guys signed were Zach Duke (who became the highest paid batting practice pitcher in history with a 2 million dollar deal), John Grabow (2.3 million dollars for a lefty specialist... mehh), Tyler Yates (the most reasonable deal with just 1.3 million dollars which should be a decent contract as long as John Russell doesn't wear his arm down again).

Clearly, I'm not exactly enthused by these maneuvers, but at least its something worth talking about with the Pirates right now, which judging by my posts on this site, is a definite rarity these days.

Pirates Stove Heating Up

After a slow and incredibly boring start to their offseason that culminated with the signing of Ramon Vazquez, the Pirates look as though they are finally set to make some moves to get things jumpstarted. And that is at least a little bit encouraging for us sickened Pirates fans.

Obviously the big highlight is the contract extension signed by Ryan Doumit yesterday. The contract for Doumit is a pretty nice on in my eyes. The deal should really only be evaluated on its 3 year amount, as I've always thought its pretty foolish to base any deal on the options because its so difficult to say what the state of Doumit and the state of the Pirates will be 3 years from now. Plus, if Doumit performs like the Pirates hope, the last year will likely be irrelevant, either because the team has turned itself around and the Bucs sign him to a new extension before that sesaon, or because the team still hasn't turned around and they deal him for spare parts (God I hope not!).

The three year deal has guaranteed money of 11.5 million, which is a pretty reasonable base pay for a catcher capable of becoming one of the 2 or 3 best hitters in the bigs at his position. If Doumit were to play all 5 years here and reach max incentives (highly unlikely given some of the clauses) the deal could reach 27 million, but if he does reach max incentives, then this deal is pretty much highway robbery for the Bucs it'd be so good.

The curious, and perhaps creative, thing about this deal is that the option years are triggered or declined at the same time. I can't recall seeing this type of deal anywhere else, though it's probably been exercised somewhere. So this essentially amounts to a 3 year contract and then a 2 year contract if the Pirates want it to be. The options are for at least 7.25 and 8.25 million per season (they go up if he reaches some clauses), so that second contract would be quite lucrative for Doumit and quite expensive for the Pirates if they choose to exercise it.

Some other moves the Pirates are making or considering:

-It appears neither Paul Maholm or Nate McLouth are going to get extensions done with the Pirates. Not too surprising, and in all honesty, I'm not too upset about either case. It may not be a popular view, but I think McLouth is headed for a regression season in 2009. Don't get me wrong, I like Nate, but to pay him based on his 08 season is folly, and I want to see it again from in 2009 before I am a firm believer. Never before in his career had he really performed anywhere near the level of last season, and I was also concerned by the major drop-off in his numbers following the all-star break last season. His OPS fell by over 100 points between his great pre-break numbers and his only a little above average post-break numbers. I do think he is definitely a nice starter around which the team can certainly build, but I don't see the urgency to lock him up. The same goes for Paul Maholm. I think Maholm is also a good piece to build upon, but I don't view him as much more than a 3 starter and think he could also be headed for a regression. He rarely gets any bats to miss, which isn't what you need from a top starter if you look at things from a statistical standpoint.

-The Pirates lost out on the Daniel Cabrera sweepstakes (oh darn...) but apparently were willing to bid quite a bit of money for his services, more even than the team Cabrera ended up signing with, the Washington Nationals, who gave him an exorbitant 2.6 million dollars. Really? The Pirates were going to offer him more than 2.6 million dollars? Who the hell thought that was a good idea. Sure the guy's got some skills, but look at these numbers! What part of those statistics offers encouragement to baseball people? Why are they constantly so enamored with Cabrera? I mean, maybe, just maybe, he just needed a change of scenery and his absolutely dreadful 2008 season was just the result of that, but is is worth 2.6 million dollars to find out? Absolutely not! This guy should be coming into major league camps on a minor-league deal, at best. If teams keep throwing this kind of dough at him, where's his incentive to improve?

-It appears as though the Bucs are more than willing to head into 2009 with Jumpin' Jack playing shortstop. Not exactly a shock at this point. And truth be told, I'm not too upset about this development, as clearly any prospect return would have been pretty minimal. My question, though, is this: Why not similarly offer to trade Freddy Sanchez? I know the Pirates just gave him an extension last offseason, but it's not like he is badly overpaid. And second base, for whatever reason, has become a much more scarce position in MLB nowadays than shortstop. Granted, they'd be trading Freddy at his lowest value in a couple years, always a no-no, but at least there are several teams out there that think he can at least return to 07 form if not his award winning 06 form. In 07, he had a .785 OPS, with a respectable .343 OBP. There are several teams with holes at second base right now where Freddy would be an upgrade at those numbers: Major upgrade for the Mets, White Sox, A's, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Royals (hard to say if they'd really be interested though), and Padres (unlikely because they're rebuilding, but still), and slight upgrade for Arizona, Cleveland (only slight because Asdrubal Cabrera is much younger and still has upside), the Twins (I'm not at all sold on Alexi Casilla and I doubt they are either), the Dodgers (Blake Dewitt has a nice upside, but is coming off a solid but unspectacular rookie campaign for a team that wants to contend now), the Giants (unlikely because they are rebuilding and have some in-house prospects). That's an awful lot of teams that Neal Huntington should be spinning his web to, and, while behind the scenes he may be, it certainly isn't a widely known fact, which makes me think it probably isn't a very active front.

-Denny Bautista will be brought back on a minor-league deal, and Chris Bootcheck was similarly signed to a minor league deal. Nothing too exciting at all on either one of these fronts, and let's hope both don't have to put on the Pirates jersey at any time after March.

-The Pirates are apparently after Rocco Baldelli, which is a surprising twist that I certainly didn't see coming. I mean yeah Baldelli has a load of talent, but he's been hurt how many times over the years, and is still dealing with the bizarre disorder that is plaguing his body and has caused him to miss a ton of time. Unless this is a very low-commitment deal, I don't like what I'm hearing. With Brandon Moss on the mend and little else in the way of outfield talent besides Nate McLouth looking major league capable (sorry I'm not at all a Nyjer Morgan fan), I'd rather put our resources elsewhere (like bringing back the now lost Jason Michaels) then pinning hopes on a deal with the enigmatic Baldelli.

-Hyzdu Headquarters has a rundown of the top 10 prospects in the Pirates system according to Kyle Stark on a recent FSN piece. I was a little surprised to see Andrew McCutchen ahead of Pedro Alvarez, but suspect that's mostly just because Stark hasn't seen enough of Pedro as a pro to fully grasp his abilities. I was also a little surprised to see Neil Walker all the way up at 6 given his struggles of the last two seasons, but then again, who else would be ahead of him? Also interesting was that Stark noted the two guys on that list to watch out for in this coming season are the two McCutchens, the aforementioned Andrew and the unmentioned Daniel. I suspect Daniel will probably not make the opening day rotation but will be among the first one or two called up when the inevitable ineffectiveness/ injury hits a starter early in the season. But I was much more excited to finally hear someone in the Pirates organization openly admit that Andrew McCutchen is close to big-league ready. Again, I don't think he is given much of a chance to make the opening day roster, but remember 2 years ago when he had a phenomenal spring and many in and around the franchise were claiming he could be up by mid-season 07? Yeah...so much for that. It seems like Cutch has been our top prospect forever, yet he just recently turned 22 years old. I think that, given the alarming lack of talent in the outfield, McCutchen will be all but forced into the bigs by the June or July when the team finally gives up on Nyjer Morgan as a everyday guy. To me this makes a world of sense, because he will be able to work out a lot of the kinks that typically plague rookies for these few months, and then should have an excellent footing established for the 2010 season. Not that any rational team would plan like this, but it would also enable the Pirates to get Jose Tabata time in Center Field in AAA, as he figures to be ready about a year after McCutchen, maybe slightly less.