Pirates Player Profile 1: Ryan Doumit

Can you feel the excitement? Opening Day is just 48 days away for the Buccos! With that in mind, and with spring training kicking into gear I wanted to get my season previews for the Pirates going. The way I figure it there are about 38 players who can make the roster, and so I figured I would piece together a player profile for each one of them. For those of you non-mathematicians out there, that amounts to a little less than 1 per day. And since I'm a pretty unreliable person, I figure I'd better get this going immediately. I'll try to do one just about every day. I'll probably do two or even three some days and zero other days. Stop by to see what's happening.

We'll start this preview off with a notable player in the form of Ryan Doumit, as I doubt a Brian Bixler preview will get much traffic my way. I'm going to be doing these predictions in a completely and totally random order. And consider this profile to be a template for future profiles.Player: Ryan Doumit
Position: Catcher
Doumit is coming off of a big-time breakout season for the Pirates. He even earned himself a hefty raise and contract extension this offseason from the upper brass. Many expect Doumit to turn into a real clubhouse leader for the Buccos this season as he showed definite signs of that last season, even earning the high praise of the immortal Doug Mientkiewicz.

One of the biggest plusses for Doumit and for the Pirates is that he provides the team with power and all-around hitting prowess at a position that is very scarce in these traits league-wide. Doumit has the chance to turn into one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball and a perennial all-star. He will be 28 shortly before Opening Day and figures to have a fair amount of room still to grow due to not having played many full seasons over the past several years. 20-25 home runs, a .320 BA, and 100 RBI are not out of the question, especially if he hits in the 3/4 slot all year, as is expected.

However, he is not perfect either. The defense is still a work in progress. There were definite signs of improvement from him last year, but I wouldn't go calling him Pudge Rodriguez just yet. The other knock on him are the numerous health concerns. He's had more than a few injuries, and was temporarily knocked behind Ronny Paulino on the organizational depth chart because of these. Even last season, Doumit missed a bit of time. Obviously, no catcher is ever going to be back there for 162 games a year, but Doumit's 116 of a year ago is a little low. Ideally, you'd like to see him behind the plate a minimum 130 games. If he can stay healthy for all of 2009, even if the D is only mediocre, it would be the final step toward him becoming a top-notch catcher.

Predicted 2009 Stats: 490 AB .303 BA 19 HR .350 OBP .483 SLG 82 RBI 74 R
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being on the Opening Day Roster: 100%
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being in the Opening Day Lineup: 100%
On Deck: Andy LaRoche

Pirates Stove Heating Up

After a slow and incredibly boring start to their offseason that culminated with the signing of Ramon Vazquez, the Pirates look as though they are finally set to make some moves to get things jumpstarted. And that is at least a little bit encouraging for us sickened Pirates fans.

Obviously the big highlight is the contract extension signed by Ryan Doumit yesterday. The contract for Doumit is a pretty nice on in my eyes. The deal should really only be evaluated on its 3 year amount, as I've always thought its pretty foolish to base any deal on the options because its so difficult to say what the state of Doumit and the state of the Pirates will be 3 years from now. Plus, if Doumit performs like the Pirates hope, the last year will likely be irrelevant, either because the team has turned itself around and the Bucs sign him to a new extension before that sesaon, or because the team still hasn't turned around and they deal him for spare parts (God I hope not!).

The three year deal has guaranteed money of 11.5 million, which is a pretty reasonable base pay for a catcher capable of becoming one of the 2 or 3 best hitters in the bigs at his position. If Doumit were to play all 5 years here and reach max incentives (highly unlikely given some of the clauses) the deal could reach 27 million, but if he does reach max incentives, then this deal is pretty much highway robbery for the Bucs it'd be so good.

The curious, and perhaps creative, thing about this deal is that the option years are triggered or declined at the same time. I can't recall seeing this type of deal anywhere else, though it's probably been exercised somewhere. So this essentially amounts to a 3 year contract and then a 2 year contract if the Pirates want it to be. The options are for at least 7.25 and 8.25 million per season (they go up if he reaches some clauses), so that second contract would be quite lucrative for Doumit and quite expensive for the Pirates if they choose to exercise it.

Some other moves the Pirates are making or considering:

-It appears neither Paul Maholm or Nate McLouth are going to get extensions done with the Pirates. Not too surprising, and in all honesty, I'm not too upset about either case. It may not be a popular view, but I think McLouth is headed for a regression season in 2009. Don't get me wrong, I like Nate, but to pay him based on his 08 season is folly, and I want to see it again from in 2009 before I am a firm believer. Never before in his career had he really performed anywhere near the level of last season, and I was also concerned by the major drop-off in his numbers following the all-star break last season. His OPS fell by over 100 points between his great pre-break numbers and his only a little above average post-break numbers. I do think he is definitely a nice starter around which the team can certainly build, but I don't see the urgency to lock him up. The same goes for Paul Maholm. I think Maholm is also a good piece to build upon, but I don't view him as much more than a 3 starter and think he could also be headed for a regression. He rarely gets any bats to miss, which isn't what you need from a top starter if you look at things from a statistical standpoint.

-The Pirates lost out on the Daniel Cabrera sweepstakes (oh darn...) but apparently were willing to bid quite a bit of money for his services, more even than the team Cabrera ended up signing with, the Washington Nationals, who gave him an exorbitant 2.6 million dollars. Really? The Pirates were going to offer him more than 2.6 million dollars? Who the hell thought that was a good idea. Sure the guy's got some skills, but look at these numbers! What part of those statistics offers encouragement to baseball people? Why are they constantly so enamored with Cabrera? I mean, maybe, just maybe, he just needed a change of scenery and his absolutely dreadful 2008 season was just the result of that, but is is worth 2.6 million dollars to find out? Absolutely not! This guy should be coming into major league camps on a minor-league deal, at best. If teams keep throwing this kind of dough at him, where's his incentive to improve?

-It appears as though the Bucs are more than willing to head into 2009 with Jumpin' Jack playing shortstop. Not exactly a shock at this point. And truth be told, I'm not too upset about this development, as clearly any prospect return would have been pretty minimal. My question, though, is this: Why not similarly offer to trade Freddy Sanchez? I know the Pirates just gave him an extension last offseason, but it's not like he is badly overpaid. And second base, for whatever reason, has become a much more scarce position in MLB nowadays than shortstop. Granted, they'd be trading Freddy at his lowest value in a couple years, always a no-no, but at least there are several teams out there that think he can at least return to 07 form if not his award winning 06 form. In 07, he had a .785 OPS, with a respectable .343 OBP. There are several teams with holes at second base right now where Freddy would be an upgrade at those numbers: Major upgrade for the Mets, White Sox, A's, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Royals (hard to say if they'd really be interested though), and Padres (unlikely because they're rebuilding, but still), and slight upgrade for Arizona, Cleveland (only slight because Asdrubal Cabrera is much younger and still has upside), the Twins (I'm not at all sold on Alexi Casilla and I doubt they are either), the Dodgers (Blake Dewitt has a nice upside, but is coming off a solid but unspectacular rookie campaign for a team that wants to contend now), the Giants (unlikely because they are rebuilding and have some in-house prospects). That's an awful lot of teams that Neal Huntington should be spinning his web to, and, while behind the scenes he may be, it certainly isn't a widely known fact, which makes me think it probably isn't a very active front.

-Denny Bautista will be brought back on a minor-league deal, and Chris Bootcheck was similarly signed to a minor league deal. Nothing too exciting at all on either one of these fronts, and let's hope both don't have to put on the Pirates jersey at any time after March.

-The Pirates are apparently after Rocco Baldelli, which is a surprising twist that I certainly didn't see coming. I mean yeah Baldelli has a load of talent, but he's been hurt how many times over the years, and is still dealing with the bizarre disorder that is plaguing his body and has caused him to miss a ton of time. Unless this is a very low-commitment deal, I don't like what I'm hearing. With Brandon Moss on the mend and little else in the way of outfield talent besides Nate McLouth looking major league capable (sorry I'm not at all a Nyjer Morgan fan), I'd rather put our resources elsewhere (like bringing back the now lost Jason Michaels) then pinning hopes on a deal with the enigmatic Baldelli.

-Hyzdu Headquarters has a rundown of the top 10 prospects in the Pirates system according to Kyle Stark on a recent FSN piece. I was a little surprised to see Andrew McCutchen ahead of Pedro Alvarez, but suspect that's mostly just because Stark hasn't seen enough of Pedro as a pro to fully grasp his abilities. I was also a little surprised to see Neil Walker all the way up at 6 given his struggles of the last two seasons, but then again, who else would be ahead of him? Also interesting was that Stark noted the two guys on that list to watch out for in this coming season are the two McCutchens, the aforementioned Andrew and the unmentioned Daniel. I suspect Daniel will probably not make the opening day rotation but will be among the first one or two called up when the inevitable ineffectiveness/ injury hits a starter early in the season. But I was much more excited to finally hear someone in the Pirates organization openly admit that Andrew McCutchen is close to big-league ready. Again, I don't think he is given much of a chance to make the opening day roster, but remember 2 years ago when he had a phenomenal spring and many in and around the franchise were claiming he could be up by mid-season 07? Yeah...so much for that. It seems like Cutch has been our top prospect forever, yet he just recently turned 22 years old. I think that, given the alarming lack of talent in the outfield, McCutchen will be all but forced into the bigs by the June or July when the team finally gives up on Nyjer Morgan as a everyday guy. To me this makes a world of sense, because he will be able to work out a lot of the kinks that typically plague rookies for these few months, and then should have an excellent footing established for the 2010 season. Not that any rational team would plan like this, but it would also enable the Pirates to get Jose Tabata time in Center Field in AAA, as he figures to be ready about a year after McCutchen, maybe slightly less.

A Good Old-Fashioned Notes Column

Lots of little things happening right now that have at least some relation to Pittsburgh sports, and since I didn't have any better ideas, I'm going to resort to the old-fashioned notes column, employed by lazy sportswriters the world over! And away we go...

-Not that I ever got to see him pitch, but it was surprising and certainly sad to see the passing of Dock Ellis in this morning's news. Of course, Ellis will always be known first and foremost as the guy who claimed to have thrown a no-hitter while on LSD, a truly zany sports story if there ever was one. Almost certainly because of moments like that, Ellis became a strong spokesman against drug use after his playing career ended, and certainly more than redeemed himself. Certainly the world lost a very powerful and positive presence yesterday.

-In other Pirates news, (YAWN) the team has shaken some things up in their minor league management. As always, the PBC Blog that Dejan Kovacevic runs on the Post-Gazette site has just about anything you could ask for if you really want the gory details. Typically I avoid reading too much background on these guys because it always make them sound like the second coming of Branch Rickey (if they are management) or Connie Mack (if they are field personnel), but if that's your kind of thing, go for it. The only thing that will matter to me is if these guys can get some tangible results out of the minors, and I don't mean seeing guys like Andrew McCutchen, Pedro Alvarez, and Jose Tabata make it, because they are both talented enough to do it on their own. I want to see them turn Neil Walker back around, help Shelby Ford and Jim Negrych continue their surprising developments, and work to develop the recent, promising additions to the organization, guys like Robbie Grossman, Jordy Mercer, Bryan Morris, etc.

-A big congrats is due to Paul Rhoads for his somewhat surprising hiring as the new head coach for Iowa State football. It was a very weird development that Rhoads, the former Pitt defensive coordinator who left the Panthers to go to Auburn for the same position this past season, will replace the guy, Gene Chizk, who just became the new head coach at Rhoads' now former employer, Auburn. Anyway, I know Rhoads has long been rumored for head coaching jobs, but I'm a little surprised his first job is as a head coach in the Big 12. Yikes! Good luck stopping those offenses, Paul. As much as I would like to see a former Pitt guy do well, I can't see this ending well for Paul. He was a wildly inconsistent defensive coordinator, leading me to coin the term "The Paul Rhoads special" for those games when, just as the defense looks as though it is coming together....BAM! They give up 48 points to Navy. He drove me nuts. Anyway, I don't see him having the gusto to turn around an Iowa State program that, quite frankly, is in shambles. I do think his involvement with their defense will pay off in the form of at least 1 big upset that no one sees coming, as he can put together a wildly impressive defensive game plan when you least expect it. Good luck Paul, I think you're going to need it.

-It seems like everyone is all sorts of fired up about the Steelers these days, and as I think I mentioned the other day, nothing makes me more nervous than that. Being the favorite, for whatever reason, just doesn't sit quite right with me, especially when it comes to the Steelers. I've been burned by too many AFC Championship losses I suppose. I have seen far too many people picking the Steelers over the Titans tomorrow, and that makes me equally uneasy. This Titans team didn't get here by being a pushover, and even without Haynesworth tomorrow, I'm still highly skeptical. I think tomorrow's ball game tells us a whole lot about our boys. Of course, I'll have a more in-depth preview posted tomorrow, so you'll have to wait until then.

-Bowl season is kicking off today, and I'm on the board with a 1 for 1 start thanks to Wake's very exciting come-from-behind W over Navy. Today's slate gives us three more games to look forward to, and there are few things more strangely enjoyable than watching a college game in a half-empty stadium in mid-December between two randomly thrown together squads. The BYU-Arizona game tonight in Las Vegas is a perfect example of that, yet that will be a pretty good game I think.

-Unfortunately, it looks like our Pitt football squad may soon be looking for yet another new defensive coordinator. The Trib is reporting that Phil Bennett has been contacted by some other schools (notably LSU) about their DC positions. That's upsetting if its true, because I thought Bennett did a very nice job this season with the defense after a sorta rocky start against those MAC schools, and the Paul Rhoads Special against Rutgers. Defensive Coordinator is a tough position to fill in college football, and I don't know that Pitt will be able to find someone as good as Bennett yet again, and the guess here is that the job would probably fall to current Pitt assistant Greg Gattuso, who many thought would get it last year. If that's the case, I expect Wanny to take on a greater role in the defense, as Gattuso doesn't have the clout of a Bennett or a Rhoads.

-It's a very busy weekend for all of our sports teams. Not only do the Steelers have the game of the weekend in the NFL tomorrow when they take on the Titans, Pitt hoops travels outside of Western PA all the way down to Tallahassee to take on Florida State tomorrow evening, a very athletic team that should give us a bit of a challenge even if they are not highly regarded, and the Penguins welcome the Maple Leafs into the Igloo this evening.

-Looks like Ryan Whitney will return Tuesday night against the Penguins South...I mean the Tampa Bay Lightning, who overpaid for several former Pens and are now regretting it. I am all sorts of pumped over that news, as I will be in attendance, which is great luck considering this is just the fourth game I've had tickets to all season. I'll report in with how Whitters looked, of course, and it will be interesting to see how he is handled in the first few weeks back. Expect him to be scratched a few times in the early going, as that can't be easy to skate daily on a surgically repaired foot. He is scheduled to be in Wilkes-Barre tonight for a 1 game rehab stint. Will be interesting to hear the reports on that one.
-The Pirates are just about set to sign Ryan Doumit to a contract extension that will lock him up through his arbitration-eligible years. I haven't been able to find any details about just how much this contract is for, so I will be very curious to see what the final figures are, as catchers who can hit like Doumit usually get more than they probably should because of the complete lack of hitting at the position across the board. Strangely, it appears zero progress was made in getting a deal done with Nate McLouth. I wonder if the Bucs are hesitant because of how flukish McLouth's numbers this past season look in comparison to his career. I'm not saying I don't believe in McLouth, because I definitely do, but I would be surprised to see him go over 20 home runs again (that power REALLY came out of nowhere), and I'm not sure where he fits in a good big league lineup, not that this is a relevant question for the 09 Pirates, because they figure to have a terrible big league lineup. I just don't think his OBP will be good enough to have a 1-2 spot in a contender's order, and certainly he's no ideal 3-4-5 guy, so I'd say he's a 6 hitter. And lastly, maybe the Pirates are also hesitant because they have McCutchen and Tabata on the cusp (probably June 09 arrival for Cutch and Opening Day 2010 for Tabata) and there's also a chance Pedro Alvarez ends up an outfielder as well. Or, maybe McLouth just wanted to see how this first year's process would go.

-Back tomorrow with a Steelers-Titans preview. Until then...