Showing posts with label Ian Snell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ian Snell. Show all posts

Friday, April 3, 2009

Reasons To Get Excited About the 2009 Pirates

When you are a Pirate fan, it can be a little bit difficult to get excited about another baseball season. Especially when there has been very little in the way of off-season change and the team that will take the field on Opening Day figures to be almost identical to the squad that was the worst team in baseball from last August onward.

So instead you have to look for little things and get excited about them and focus more on things like how future key players are progressing and other minor victories. With all that in mind, and with the start of the regular season just 3 days away, I compiled 10 the reasons that I'm excited about your 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates.

The potential return from another summer firesale- Jack Wilson and Adam LaRoche are both highly likely to be wearing different colored uniforms by August 1. It will be very interesting to see how Neal Huntington handles his second trade deadline, especially now that there isn't the same absolute desperation to add any sort of decent starting arms to the upper levels of the organization that there was last season. In addition, John Grabow, Matt Capps, and any of the established veterans on the roster are trade candidates and could at least fetch an OK return.

A Bounceback Year for Ian Snell- I'm calling it right now. Snell is in for a return to the 2007 form that made him such an intriguing player. I think he turns into a very solid number 2 starter behind Paul Maholm and would be a nice complement as a power pitcher behind Maholm's crafty routine.

Throwing a bunch of Starting Pitchers at the wall and seeing what sticks- For the first time in recent times, the Pirates have a decent amountof major-league ready starting pitchers. However, probably only 2 of those players (the aformentioned Snell and Maholm) are guys that good big-league teams would want on their staff. A key for the Pirates will be having at least 1 or 2 more guys develop into at least solid starters. Of the old hands in the organization, I am not on the Zach Duke bandwagon (nor is anyone on the entire planet I might add) as he just gets hit so hard. I also think Tom Gorzelanny is probably injured or has just flat lost it and so I'm not relying on him to make any sort of an impact in the near future. I'm intrigued by Ross Ohlendorf's ability to really throw the ball hard and I want to see more from Jeff Karstens, too. If one of those guys (more likely Ohlendorf than Karstens) turns in at least a solid season it would be big. There has also been talk about Daniel McCutchen since the Nady trade, and at some point this season we figure to see him in Pittsburgh.

Andrew McCutchen's Expected Arrival in Pittsburgh- For as long as I've been a Pirate fan (about 15-16 years), I can think of very few home-grown prospects who got the knowledgeable fans as excited as Cutch. Chad Hermansen was probably a bit more highly regarded (and I just threw up in my mouth a little bit), but let's hope this highly touted prospect turns out a bit better than the Hermanator. He has to be called up at some point this season. Whether that is in mid-May or July, Cutch will be a wildly exciting player for the fans to watch when he is finally wearing the big-league uni.

The minor league progress of star prospects Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Bryan Morris and Brad Lincoln- This reason isn't for the casual fan or for the faint of heart. But for the real passionate Bucco fan it figures to be a very interesting subplot to keep an eye on these 4 studs. Most will dig only as far as the PG's little daily minor-league recap allows them to. Personally, that's not enough. I'll be checking up every day with the minor league sites, hoping Alvarez is tearing through the minor league system, hoping Tabata gives us a full season of the talent he showed last season, and hoping Lincoln and Morris deliver on their stud potential, as we could really use some stud pitching prospects in this organization.

The progress of intriguing prospects like Shelby Ford, Brian Bixler, Jim Negrych, Steve Pearce, Danny Moskos, Neil Walker, Robbie Grossman, Jamie Romak, Jordy Mercer, Chase D'Arnaud, Quinton Miller, Brian Friday, Matt Hague and Duke Welker- Again, not something for the casual fan. And that's especially so in this case. None of these guys can be considered elite prospects, but each of them has the ability to at least make the show some day, and the hope is that a few of them turn into starters at that level. As I said earlier, we especially need big-time pitching prospects in this organization, so if a Quinton Miller or Duke Welker or Danny Moskos could have a big year development-wise it would be a tremendous development for the organization.

Having fantasy baseball back- I know it certainly isn't everyone's cup of tea. But to me, fantasy baseball is without question the best fantasy sport going. It is way more intensive and way less luck is involved than in fantasy football, and it gives me an even bigger need to follow baseball all summer long even when the Pirates are 20 games out of first place. I've had all 3 of my drafts, and surprisingly ended up with 4 Pirates total on my 3 teams. That's actually more than usual, as typically Pirates go higher in at least 2 of my drafts because its mostly Pittsburgh-group of players. Doumit, McLouth, Snell (twice), and Capps are the guys I will have an extra rooting interest in.

A make-or-break year for Andy LaRoche- I know this is his first full season with the Pirates, but I really think this is Andy's only shot at cementing a place with the team. I still like Neil Walker and think he'll develop at some point, and Pedro Alvarez (though I think he'll switch to first) figures to tear through the system and be wearing the Pirates uni by mid-2010. With all that in mind, Andy needs to put up at least something in the neighborhood of a .265/.335/.460 in order to give himself a place in the Pirates' future. If he fails yet again, he'll be certainly given the dreaded "Quad A prospect" tag. Those aren't even great numbers. They're Edwin Encarnacion numbers, and that would be good enough for me.

The seasons of Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit- All three had career years in 2008, and it will be very interesting to see how each fares in 2009. Personally, I'd guess that McLouth might regress a hair, but that Doumit will have an even better all-around season and that Maholm can be about as solid as he was last year.

The Draft- I know it's not a great reason, as there is at least a decent chance that the top pick might not play more than a handful of games in the system for the entire season, but with the Bucs sitting at number 4, I have to admit I am at least a little bit excited about adding another top-notch prospect to our system. Likely targets are probably 1B Dustin Ackley (a Scott Boras guy), RHP Aaron Crow (who held out last year and didn't sign with the Nationals), SS Grant Green, RHP Alex White and LHP Tyler Matzek. Obviously others will be in the mix by June, as well. I also am excited to see if the Pirates are able to get any other above-slot guys later on in the draft like they did last season.

Monday, February 23, 2009

Breaking Down The Potential Rotation

Okay this whole previewing the Pirates thing player-by-player thing is starting to get to me a little bit. Its just too...slow for my tastes. But this is my first time doing this sort of thing on my blog, and I have every intention of seeing it through to the end, but at the same time I want to cheat a little bit with regard to one of the most hotly contended positions on the roster, the starting pitchers.

And, in case you haven't noticed, I'm a definite math nut and like to size things up based on odds and percentages and what not, so I figured I'd give a percentage chance for each of the 10 "contenders" that Joe Kerrigan designated as potential starter candidates, along with a bit of an anecdote about each player. I also through out an over/under for each starter for the number of starts they make with the Bucs. Let me know which way you'd wager.

Paul MaholmI've got to be honest, I did not see Maholm's breakout season coming last year, and I'm still not 100% sold that he is as good as his numbers indicate last year. I do think he's a definite very solid 3/4 starter, but when I watch him pitch I just don't see your typical ace material. But, hey, I'd love for him to keep proving me wrong.

There is absolutely no doubt though that Maholm is the Bucs ace for this season, will start every fifth day as long as his arm is healthy, and is as steady a pitcher as I can remember seeing wearing the black and gold.
Opening Day Rotation: 100%
Over/Under on season starts: 29.5

Ian Snell
If there is a player in this mix with ace-like potential (and I'm not sure that there is), it's most definitely Snell. He has a nasty demeanor to go with nasty stuff a solid, power arm and the ability to dominate when he's rolling. Unfortunately, Snell has yet to fully harness his abilities and his temperment, as evidenced by his incredibly disappointing 2008 season.

Snell figures to be given a lot of chances to right his ship given his extremely impressive upside. He also has become a workhorse with 3 straight 31+ start seasons. If he's healthy, he'll be out there.
Opening Day Rotation: 100%
Over/Under on season starts: 29.5

Zach Duke
I covered Duke just the other day in the previews, so I'm not going to spend much time rehashing him here. I just wanted to add that this percentage is on the organization's overall feeling about Duke, not my own personal. Reports are that he mostly has an opening day roster spot mostly sewn up. I'm not entirely sure I agree with this, but that's the rumor.
Opening Day Rotation: 95%
Over/Under on season starts: 25.5

Tom Gorzelanny
Gorzo is one of the more interesting cases on the roster. Its hard to get a good read on where the Pirates front office really stands on him. Certainly he had quite a promising 2007 season, but he was incredibly lackluster last season and new management has seen next to zero quality performance from Gorzo since they took over.
He is reportedly in better shape this spring, which is excellent to hear considering he had some issues with his conditioning(as you can see above). I mean, he was never in danger of becoming the next Jimmy Anderson, but it was something of a concern and a definite target on his back when he struggled last year. If Gorzo gets an opening day rotation spot, he could well end up putting 30 starts and close to 200 innings again. Or, he could disappoint in the spring games, end up in AAA early and not be able to crack a suddenly deeper Pirate staff for quite some time.
Opening Day Rotation: 70%
Over/Under on season starts: 20.5

Ross Ohlendorf
Given Ohlendorf's pedigree and his overall abilities I think the Pirates would very much like to slot Ohlendorf into the back of their rotation, and barring an absolute collapse or an impressive spring by McCutchen or Karstens or Gorzo or all of them, I think that odds are good they will give him at least a shot. Ohlendorf also gives the Pirates another potential power arm in the rotation, something to really consider when you figure there are probably two crafty lefty types with spots assured. Having a contrast like Ross would be a nice change of pace, similar to Ian Snell.
Opening Day Rotation:
65%
Over/Under on season starts: 22.5

Jeff Karstens
Karstens made one hell of a debut in the Burgh last season, nearly throwing a perfect game in his second start after an almost-as-impressive performance in his first start. He came back to Earth a bit as the season wore on, but his surprising showing certainly had to catch the attention of the Pirates front office.

However, its more than likely that the red-hot debut was simply Karstens playing above his means in a league that didn't know what to expect from him. He doesn't have anything flashy in his repetoire, but definitely is a good depth guy to have and certainly deserves at least a shot at a rotation role. I'm not sure he'll get it, and he could be looking at a long relief role or a stint in Indy, but there's little question he figures to spend some time in Pittsburgh at some point.
Opening Day Rotation:
50%
Over/Under on season starts: 14.5

Daniel McCutchen
McCutchen was yet another piece in the Xavier Nady trade that I think will end up looking like a bargain if even one of McCutchen and the previous two starters ends up turning into a solid piece in the rotation. I'm not yet sure that the other McCutchen is really ready for the show yet, as his AAA numbers after the trade were only mediocre.

Given how much major league rotations change over the course of a season, I fully expect we'll see Daniel in Pittsburgh at some point this season, but I think he'll need some seasoning first.
Opening Day Rotation: 15%
Over/Under on season starts: 8.5

Phil Dumatrait

Dumatrait was a big-time overachiever last season after being picked off the scrap heap from Cincinnati. However, his success was short-lived due to unfortunate injury. It's hard to get a bead on him this season, especially considering he was originally expected to be healthy for camp, then wasn't going to be, then was sorta healthy and could be a reliever but not a starter, and then finally was deemed to be a starter candidate. I'm not sure I buy it. I think Dumatrait is a nice depth piece to have, but he has taken a major tumble from where he was last summer before his injury on the organizational depth chart, and I think ends up as the long reliever on April 6.
Opening Day Rotation: 5%
Over/Under on season starts: 6.5

Jason Davis
There's basically no conceivable way he ends up in the Opening Day rotation barring some sort of plague or catastrophe. I suppose that, with another rash of injuries like the one that caused the Yoslan Herrera disaster of a year ago we could see him in the Burgh, but let's all just keep our fingers crossed that he spends the year toeing the rubber in Indy, or at most working as long man for the Pirates for a brief stint. Even that would be a little frightening.
Opening Day Rotation: 0%
Over/Under on season starts: 0.5

Jimmy Barthmaier

Barthmaier was basically thrown into this mix by Joe Kerrigan to give them an even 10 guys in their spring rotation. He'll be gone as soon as the schedule evens out and the other starters stretch their arms out enough that his services aren't needed. Similar to Davis, I don't want him anywhere near John Russell's starting lineup card.
Opening Day Rotation: 0%
Over/Under on season starts: 0.5