Showing posts with label Andrew McCutchen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andrew McCutchen. Show all posts

Monday, April 6, 2009

Opening Day At Long Last

There are few cooler things than Opening Day baseball. Even if you are just casual about the sport, you have to love the start of the season. It is the ultimate American sporting day, probably just a notch below the opening day of March Madness. And although we have some apparent postponed games today (already two are tallied up), today is still going to be an exciting one, just to know that the sport is finally back and that the games finally count after such a ridiculously long spring training period this year.

Paul Maholm will take the hill for the Bucs a bit later on today as long as it isn't freaking snowing in St. Louis. Because the season kicks off today, I wanted to finally get down my personal predictions for the players and the team as a whole, as any predictions that come after the start of the opener come with an asterisk attached to them. So here we go:

Batters
Ryan Doumit: 465 AB .297 BA/ .360 OBP/ .480 SLG
Adam LaRoche 387 AB .276/ .346/ .481 (Traded in late July)
Freddy Sanchez 573 AB .295/ .332/ .403
Jack Wilson 478 AB .270/ .308/ .369
Andy LaRoche 521 AB .271/ .353/ .445
Nyjer Morgan 237 AB .270/ .331/ .354
Nate McLouth 570 AB .275/ .357/ .461
Brandon Moss 486 AB .265/ .334/ .453
Andrew McCutchen 263 AB .262/ .340/ .384
Eric Hinske 346 AB .257/ .343/ .454
Ramon Vasquez 302 AB .248/ .314/ .384
Craig Monroe 194 AB .227/ .295/ .418
Luis Cruz 244 AB .246/ .292/ .357
Jason Jaramillo 111 AB .243/ .333/ .342

Pitchers
Paul Maholm 213 IP 4.06 ERA 147 K 1.33 WHIP 12-12 Record
Ian Snell 178 IP 4.40 ERA 143 K 1.42 WHIP 10-11 Record
Zach Duke 174 IP 4.91 ERA 85 K 1.55 WHIP 8-13 Record
Ross Ohlendorf 151 IP 4.65 ERA 112 K 1.48 WHIP 7-9 Record
Jeff Karstens 120 IP 4.80 ERA 72 K 1.51 WHIP 5-7 Record
Daniel McCutchen 83 IP 5.10 ERA 64 K 1.62 WHIP 2-5 Record
Matt Capps 70 IP 2.57 ERA 54 K 1.03 WHIP 37 Saves
John Grabow 46 IP 3.91 ERA 40 K 1.26 WHIP (traded in late July)
Tyler Yates 63 IP 4.43 ERA 57 K 1.49 WHIP
Sean Burnett 65 IP 4.85 ERA 40 K 1.58 WHIP
Evan Meek 51 IP 3.88 ERA 38 K 1.39 WHIP
Craig Hansen 47 IP 5.36 ERA 34 K 1.70 WHIP
Jesse Chavez 40 IP 5.63 ERA 25 K 1.80 WHIP
Donnie Veal 10 IP 8.10 ERA 5 K 2.00 WHIP

Obviously, I'm not projecting this out to be a very good baseball team. There is a definite lack of power, especially if a projected Adam LaRoche trade goes through. The bullpen is going to be a cobbled-together mess for the most part. Really, I only have a couple guys with breakout-type seasons. I like Evan Meek a lot and think he will be up with this team before May 1st and will become our best righty setup man by year's end. I also think Andy LaRoche has a nice season at third base (a .798 OPS would have placed him anywhere between 9th and 12 among qualifying major league third basemen in each of the past 5 seasons. Not too shabby.) I think Ryan Doumit will have a lower SLG, but only because the batting average may drop a bit. If anything, I'd guess his home run total increases (to 20 or so) and that the doubles total decreases a bit. Brandon Moss will be a serviceable corner outfielder at the plate (not in the field though) and can at least hold the fort down until Tabata is ready at some point in 2010.

I think Jack Wilson falls off a cliff this season at the plate and won't even be tradeable for a few spare fungos by season's end. I also think Nate McLouth's power regresses a bit. Andrew McCutchen is not going to be the immediate savior we are all praying for. Don't get me wrong, I've seen this kid play and think he will be VERY good, but a .724 OPS probably is around the range we should reasonably expect. Any more than that, and it's a gift. This season is just about getting him comfortable with the bigs to the point that he is capable of a big 2010 season. Nyjer Morgan gives us so-so numbers but clearly isn't starter material. Freddy Sanchez's average bounces back but the power doesn't and he begins to stumble down that same cliff his buddy Jack is struggling with. I also think Craig Monroe stinks the joint out this season. I don't like Monroe much, and the only reason I see him getting as many at-bats as I have him slated for is because the Pirates need some power.

As for the pitching...it ain't sexy. Paul Maholm's ERA was a bit too good last season, and while I still like Maholm and think he'll turn in a decent year I think that a 4.00 ERA is more in his range. I think Snell bounces back a bit, as he was bit by some bad luck on the mound last year, and that Duke gives us a second consecutive year of mediocrity. At this point, there's no reason to expect anything different from the Duke. I like Ohlendorf to show some flashes this season and provide a glimmer of hope as a 3/4 starter type for the coming years. And I think Karstens will be one of the better number 5 starters we have seen in Pittsburgh, but that's not really a complement. I also predict that Tom Gorzelanny doesn't pitch an inning in Pittsburgh and makes the dreaded trip to Mobile to see Dr. Andrews, as his struggles seem best explained by an injury to me.

In the bullpen I figure Matt Capps has a big year as the closer and could challenge for 40 saves. I also think this is the season that the long-rumored John Grabow trade finally comes to fruition. Other than Meek there's nothing here to be surprised or excited about.

All in all, I'm projecting a 71-91 record for the Pirates in the coming season, and the sad thing is I think I'm probably being a little optimistic considering all these issues.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Reasons To Get Excited About the 2009 Pirates

When you are a Pirate fan, it can be a little bit difficult to get excited about another baseball season. Especially when there has been very little in the way of off-season change and the team that will take the field on Opening Day figures to be almost identical to the squad that was the worst team in baseball from last August onward.

So instead you have to look for little things and get excited about them and focus more on things like how future key players are progressing and other minor victories. With all that in mind, and with the start of the regular season just 3 days away, I compiled 10 the reasons that I'm excited about your 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates.

The potential return from another summer firesale- Jack Wilson and Adam LaRoche are both highly likely to be wearing different colored uniforms by August 1. It will be very interesting to see how Neal Huntington handles his second trade deadline, especially now that there isn't the same absolute desperation to add any sort of decent starting arms to the upper levels of the organization that there was last season. In addition, John Grabow, Matt Capps, and any of the established veterans on the roster are trade candidates and could at least fetch an OK return.

A Bounceback Year for Ian Snell- I'm calling it right now. Snell is in for a return to the 2007 form that made him such an intriguing player. I think he turns into a very solid number 2 starter behind Paul Maholm and would be a nice complement as a power pitcher behind Maholm's crafty routine.

Throwing a bunch of Starting Pitchers at the wall and seeing what sticks- For the first time in recent times, the Pirates have a decent amountof major-league ready starting pitchers. However, probably only 2 of those players (the aformentioned Snell and Maholm) are guys that good big-league teams would want on their staff. A key for the Pirates will be having at least 1 or 2 more guys develop into at least solid starters. Of the old hands in the organization, I am not on the Zach Duke bandwagon (nor is anyone on the entire planet I might add) as he just gets hit so hard. I also think Tom Gorzelanny is probably injured or has just flat lost it and so I'm not relying on him to make any sort of an impact in the near future. I'm intrigued by Ross Ohlendorf's ability to really throw the ball hard and I want to see more from Jeff Karstens, too. If one of those guys (more likely Ohlendorf than Karstens) turns in at least a solid season it would be big. There has also been talk about Daniel McCutchen since the Nady trade, and at some point this season we figure to see him in Pittsburgh.

Andrew McCutchen's Expected Arrival in Pittsburgh- For as long as I've been a Pirate fan (about 15-16 years), I can think of very few home-grown prospects who got the knowledgeable fans as excited as Cutch. Chad Hermansen was probably a bit more highly regarded (and I just threw up in my mouth a little bit), but let's hope this highly touted prospect turns out a bit better than the Hermanator. He has to be called up at some point this season. Whether that is in mid-May or July, Cutch will be a wildly exciting player for the fans to watch when he is finally wearing the big-league uni.

The minor league progress of star prospects Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, Bryan Morris and Brad Lincoln- This reason isn't for the casual fan or for the faint of heart. But for the real passionate Bucco fan it figures to be a very interesting subplot to keep an eye on these 4 studs. Most will dig only as far as the PG's little daily minor-league recap allows them to. Personally, that's not enough. I'll be checking up every day with the minor league sites, hoping Alvarez is tearing through the minor league system, hoping Tabata gives us a full season of the talent he showed last season, and hoping Lincoln and Morris deliver on their stud potential, as we could really use some stud pitching prospects in this organization.

The progress of intriguing prospects like Shelby Ford, Brian Bixler, Jim Negrych, Steve Pearce, Danny Moskos, Neil Walker, Robbie Grossman, Jamie Romak, Jordy Mercer, Chase D'Arnaud, Quinton Miller, Brian Friday, Matt Hague and Duke Welker- Again, not something for the casual fan. And that's especially so in this case. None of these guys can be considered elite prospects, but each of them has the ability to at least make the show some day, and the hope is that a few of them turn into starters at that level. As I said earlier, we especially need big-time pitching prospects in this organization, so if a Quinton Miller or Duke Welker or Danny Moskos could have a big year development-wise it would be a tremendous development for the organization.

Having fantasy baseball back- I know it certainly isn't everyone's cup of tea. But to me, fantasy baseball is without question the best fantasy sport going. It is way more intensive and way less luck is involved than in fantasy football, and it gives me an even bigger need to follow baseball all summer long even when the Pirates are 20 games out of first place. I've had all 3 of my drafts, and surprisingly ended up with 4 Pirates total on my 3 teams. That's actually more than usual, as typically Pirates go higher in at least 2 of my drafts because its mostly Pittsburgh-group of players. Doumit, McLouth, Snell (twice), and Capps are the guys I will have an extra rooting interest in.

A make-or-break year for Andy LaRoche- I know this is his first full season with the Pirates, but I really think this is Andy's only shot at cementing a place with the team. I still like Neil Walker and think he'll develop at some point, and Pedro Alvarez (though I think he'll switch to first) figures to tear through the system and be wearing the Pirates uni by mid-2010. With all that in mind, Andy needs to put up at least something in the neighborhood of a .265/.335/.460 in order to give himself a place in the Pirates' future. If he fails yet again, he'll be certainly given the dreaded "Quad A prospect" tag. Those aren't even great numbers. They're Edwin Encarnacion numbers, and that would be good enough for me.

The seasons of Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit- All three had career years in 2008, and it will be very interesting to see how each fares in 2009. Personally, I'd guess that McLouth might regress a hair, but that Doumit will have an even better all-around season and that Maholm can be about as solid as he was last year.

The Draft- I know it's not a great reason, as there is at least a decent chance that the top pick might not play more than a handful of games in the system for the entire season, but with the Bucs sitting at number 4, I have to admit I am at least a little bit excited about adding another top-notch prospect to our system. Likely targets are probably 1B Dustin Ackley (a Scott Boras guy), RHP Aaron Crow (who held out last year and didn't sign with the Nationals), SS Grant Green, RHP Alex White and LHP Tyler Matzek. Obviously others will be in the mix by June, as well. I also am excited to see if the Pirates are able to get any other above-slot guys later on in the draft like they did last season.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Pirates Top Prospects Rundown

The 2009 MLB season kicks off in 2009, but really for most Pirate fans this season isn't going to be about contending or trying to get over the .500 mark, because I just really can't see that happening. No, for most intelligent baseball-watching folks, this year will be progress. Seeing progress in the organization that hints that maybe our despair is slowly coming to an end. That maybe some of these young players currently with the major league club are guys we could see playing important roles for good baseball teams. And perhaps most important of all, that some of the top prospects in our minor league system are progressing and will be able to have a major impact on the PBC in the very near future.

With that in mind, I wanted to do something of a preview of the top prospects in our system. Alas, I'm not scout and the only legit prospects I've seen play with my own two eyes are Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker, and that was only for two games each. So I'm not exactly qualified. Instead, I thought I'd allow some of the real experts on this type of stuff to take over. So here is some of the stuff I have found on our top prospects with links to the sites and a brief quote from each, along with a little personal input at the bottom of each. I'd like to make this a regular feature on here to be updated whenever we get a new prospect with promise or at the start of each season with new info.

Pedro Alvarez-Named the #1 NL Prospect by Jim Callis at Baseball America, "Spring injury, summer holdout overshadow his devastating hitting ability."

-A scouting report from Scout.com from last year.
"Whether or not Alvarez can remain at his current position, however, is not such a sure thing. Although he has a enough arm strength to remain on the left side of the infield, some scouts fear that his size/weight may become an issue, similar to Miguel Cabrera's situation this spring in Detroit. He made 10 errors in his brief campaign with the Commodores in '08, posting a .903 fielding percentage. Regardless, many scouts also feel—as does he—that he can remain at the position at the highest level.
"

-An in-depth piece on Alvarez from Baseball-Intellect that includes a good breakdown of his swing (scroll halfway down for Pedro).
"On the whole, Alvarez's swing is pretty simple. His hip rotation is aggressive and forceful; he doesn't let his hands get out in front. Rather, he turns his hips and hands together. He could stand to let the ball travel a little deeper, but that may just be a result of this one particular swing.
"The biggest weakness for Alvarez is his propensity to swing and miss though I can't say whether this is because of poor pitch recognition or something else."


-A report from Scouting Book:
"A left-handed power hitting third baseman, Alvarez has a very very high ceiling and is almost big-league ready. He could be a big part of a devastating future Pittsburgh lineup. He's recovering from a hamate bone he broke in 2007, but all reports are positive so his strength should be back soon."

-Of course we'll wrap up everyone with a link to each player's page at the superb Wilbur Miller. Here is Pedro's. Also here's a good quote about Alvarez:
"He has a strong arm, but has been erratic at third. Some scouts consider him athletic enough to make sufficient progress to stay at third as an average fielder. Others, not including the Pirates or Alvarez himself, believe he'll have to move to first. A bigger question mark arose, however, when he was hit by a pitch early in the 2008 season and broke the hamate bone in his right hand. Numerous articles at Baseball America and elsewhere, as well as pre-draft statements from Pirates GM Neal Huntington concerning medical advice he'd received, have indicated that an injury of that sort may detract from a hitter's power for a year or so, but should eventually cause no loss of ability."

Personal Consensus: A legitimately prodigious hitting talent by all accounts, Alvarez is expected to develop into at least a 30-40 home run type of player. There is much speculation about where he will end up playing, and I personally think we will see him at first base or right field before all is said and done, but I think there is a good chance he'll play third base at the beginning of his major league career. The guess here is that Pedro tears his way through A and AA pitching this season and makes it to Indy by season's end, though I'm not as convinced about a Pittsburgh visit, as I think leaping that far will be enough of a challenge for him. I then think he starts 2010 in AAA but is in Pittsburgh by June or July for a half season stint.


Andrew McCutchen
-Keith Law named Cutch his 18th best prospect in baseball and had this to say:
"McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn't get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn't hit for the kind of power he's capable of producing. He has great bat speed and has hit for average while making plenty of contact. He's a 65-70 runner but had an uncharacteristically sloppy year as a base stealer; he's a plus glove in center but could use a little work on routes."

-The Diamond Cutter: And another from the DC
"McCutchen is an exciting five tool player who has been unfortunately rushed through the Pirates system. He hasn’t been able to fully develop at each level and instead of staying put and working on his skills, he has been pushed through. McCutchen has a great glove in center and despite his great defensive prowess, his impact bat may be his best skill.

-Imaginary Diamond's fantasy-spun take:
"McCutchen has 20 home run, 20 stolen base potential, while already taking an advanced approach to hitting."

-MLB.com's report that also includes an interesting accompanying video:
"He's a five-tool player with terrific athletic ability to go along with plus bat speed and good pitch recognition. The development of his power will determine whether he's a leadoff hitter or an eventual run producer. He has outstanding speed and is an excellent defensive center fielder, but is still learning the nuances of base-stealing."

-From the scouting book,
"he could break in two directions: as a top-of-the-order speed threat, or a middle-of-the-order power bat as he continues to refine his approach at the plate. If his MLB career follows his minor league ascent, expect some early struggles in the majors followed by a relentless rise to greatness."

-From Armchair GM
"McCutchen projects as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder with a plus arm and plus speed and instincts. Offensively, McCutchen has a powerful upper body, and combined with quick hands and his already above average strike zone recognition, projects to hit for both a high average and with escalating power. A righthanded hitter timed at 4.1 seconds from home to first, he projects early in his career as a leadoff hitter with the potential to steal thirty bases plus."

-McCutchen's WM profile:
"His plate discipline remained good throughout the season, though, and he reduced his platoon split, posting a .742 OPS against RHPs and .836 against LHPs, so he seems to be making progress against his main nemesis, the slider. His base stealing skills obviously need a lot of work, although for some reason 2008 was the first season in which he was allowed to run a lot. It's possible that McCutchen won't be more than a speedy leadoff type, which wouldn't be such a bad thing. He has very good range in CF, although his arm is average at best."

Personal Consensus: Cutch is the closest thing the Pirates have to a major-league ready prospect. That said, he will almost certainly start the season in AAA. There are many who expect him to still develop an as-yet-unseen power stroke, but for now he appears likely to bat at the top of the order when he does get the call and maybe the power stroke will develop in time.


Jose Tabata
-From the scouting book:
"Tabata is a polished fielder who's almost major-league ready, despite his young age. A natural right fielder with excellent patience"

-From Baseball Intellect
"In terms of physical tools and raw talent, Tabata is amongst the best in minor league baseball. However, Tabata has yet to turn that talent into production."

-A report on Tabata from a Yankee blog that is over 2 years old. Obviously things have evolved a bit, but this is interesting because of the long-term projections.
"(Ceiling is) very high. In my opinion it is still limited due to size, but Tabata certainly has the ability to hit like an MVP candidate. If nothing goes terribly wrong, he is going to hit #3 somewhere someday for a long time."

-And another Yankee blog with a report on Tabata from last March.
"One of the most promising youngsters is Jose Tabata. He's a right fielder from Venezuela who's hitting and fielding have been most impressive in his three seasons in the Yankees farm system. He's got an arm like Roberto Clemente and the hitting skills of Bernie Williams."

-A report from the Diamond Cutter from when Tabata was still a Yankee has him as the number 3 prospect in the system behind Joba and Ian Kennedy (?).
"Tabata is an excellent hitter and hits the ball hard all over the field. Due to this and his great plate discipline, he looks to have the makeup to be a potential batting champion competitor someday"

-A page from Armchair GM that includes a Baseball America synopsis of Tabata and a couple videos of him down at the bottom.
"He's solidly built at 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds and will have more power as he gets stronger and more experienced. He drew more walks (15) than strikeouts (14), and while we shouldn't infer too much about his plate discipline when he's facing such raw pitching, that's definitely a positive sign. He has plus speed and the tools to play center field"

-Raise the Jolly Roger did a bio on Tabata shortly after he arrived from the Yanks.
"He has been dubbed “Mini-Manny (Ramirez)” for having quick hands and great bat speed, but also for his bad attitude."

-Tabata's Wilbur Miller Profile.
"He was considered to have five tool potential, with good speed, a very good bat with the potential to hit for power, and a slightly above average arm for right field."

Personal Consensus:
After reading through these reports, it seems like Tabata may be much closer to being major-league ready than most people realize. Obviously he is slated to start this season in AA, so that means he still has to prove himself at two more levels, but I fully expect him to dominate there. Perhaps the only reason he is in AA is because the Pirates still want to play him in center field and have Cutch in Indy. I think Tabata is in AAA by June regardless of where McCutchen is and is starting to play some corner outfield, and I wouldn't bat an eyelash to see him get a cup of coffee in September and be given a chance to win a job along side Nate and Cutch next spring.


Brad Lincoln
-From the Diamond Cutter. A list of the team's top prospects prior to last season.
"before going down he had a good moving fastball which sat in the mid-90’s as well as a hard breaking curveball. He had a little trouble with the command of his pitches before the injury so it will definitely be a tough battle for him once he comes back from the surgery. As with all Tommy John surgeries it will take about a year for Lincoln to potentially regain what he once had."

-From CBS Sportsline Blog type thing Lincoln is listed as the number 11 prospect for the Bucs.
"Lincoln throws his fastball in his low-mid 90s, and a good curveball. He has a nice comeback story unfolding if he can continue to improve next season"

-A recap of 2008 Baseball Prospectus rankings via Be Like Tike:
"Lincoln is a smallish pitcher who is also a very good hitter. More importantly to the Pirates, however, is the fact that when he is healthy, Lincoln can hit up to 95 mph. According to BP, he projects as a mid-rotation starter"

-The Bleacher Report puts together the Pirates top 10 prospects.
"The numbers, in Lincoln's case, are not nearly as significant as the fact that he was able to stay injury free. Now that he has proven that he can stay healthy, management will look for Lincoln to be one of the prospects that makes a big jump in 2009."

-From Wilbur Miller:
"Although some fans were put off by the ERAs, Lincoln's return was successful. He stayed healthy, his fastball sat around 93, and his control was very good. It may have been a little too good, as he had a moderate gopher ball problem, but one article said he was concentrating mainly on throwing strikes. He actually didn't allow many baserunners."

Personal Consensus: Along with the next guy on this list, Bryan Morris, Lincoln is really one of just two starting pitchers in the entire farm system with any sort of professional pedigree, and the sad thing is they are both probably 2 years away (at least) from the majors. Still, his first year back from injury gave us a lot of positive signs and it is probably safe to think of him in glowing terms yet again, even if he does figure to be at least 25 or 26 before he makes his debut.


Bryan Morris
-Halfway down this page from Pirate Revolution is a bit about Morris.
"Their No. 5 prospect, Baseball America figures Morris to be "a fixture in the middle of Pittsburgh's rotation by 2011 or 2012."

-Just like Tabata, Raise The Jolly Roger again did a nice job with a player bio after the acquisition of Morris.
"He may not progress very quickly, but the minor league experience is good for him. I expect Morris to be in the majors by late 2010 or in 2011, and excel at that level. I am excited about him, but we must be patient"

-From the scouting book, where Morris was the 192nd ranked prospect.
"Morris has a high-90's fastball and a plus curve, and frustrates batters with an unorthodox delivery."

-This Dodger MLB Blog had Morris as their number 9 Dodger prospect in 08.
"He has a 93 mph fastball that sinks, a wicked breaking ball and an unorthodox delivery. Could be a top of the rotation pitcher in a year or two."

-A bit of info from the Baseball Analysts on Morris from shortly after he was drafted in 2006.
"The 6-3, 200-pound RHP has a plus fastball and a power curve."

-His Wilbur Miller profile:
"He was the youngest of the four players they got in the deal and may have the highest ceiling. Morris had Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss all of 2007. He had pitched well in 2008 up through the time of the trade, though, with his fastball reaching as high as 95. He has an above-average curve and is working on a changeup. Baseball America projects him to be a potential 3rd starter."

Personal Consensus:
By all accounts it seems like Morris has shown strong progress coming back from TJ surgery, and maybe it is a bit of a blessing that it happened early to him and not after he had progressed through much of the minors. It sounds as if he is probably a minimum 2 full years away from being a big leaguer, but he is just shy of his 22nd birthday, so to me that is no big deal, and I'd be in no real rush to get him up. This will be an important year for Morris to show he isn't injury-prone.


Neil Walker
-Diamond Cutter has a report on Walker and others
"Walker has a strong frame with muscular arms and legs which give him fabulous power potential as line drives jump off his bat. He has excellent physical make-up"

-From the scouting book.
"Walker has had a bumpy road to pro ball. Now a full-time third baseman, he still shows the switch-hitting power stroke that brought him to the Pirate's attention years ago."

-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"Walker appears as if he will be an average major leaguer with trouble in the field and a little bit of power at this point."

-
From Hot Prospects:
"He continued to make strides defensively last season cutting his errors down from 27 to just 19. He shows good agility and has drawn rave reviews within the organization for his extraordinary makeup and work ethic. The big bugaboo with Neil continues to be his substandard plate discipline."

-Wilbur Miller
"He did make progress defensively, cutting down on errors and getting voted the top defensive thirdbaseman in the International League, although those awards are often based on little more than name recognition. Walker's future is in some doubt now."

Personal Consensus: With the addition of guys like Tabata, LaRoche and Alvarez and the new emphasis on spending in the draft and Latin America, it seems to me that most have decided that Walker is now basically irrelevant. I'm not so sure about that. The athleticism is still there, and while I think he probably was rushed to this point, I still think he has major league value. I don't think he'll ever be an All-Star third baseman, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn into a solid utility guy capable of playing 3B or either corner outfield spot and maybe even 1B/2B. That's not exactly what you want from a first round pick, but those type of guys certainly have value, too. I do think we see him this year in Pittsburgh, at least in September, now that he is on the 40-man.


Danny Moskos
-Diamond Cutter has a report on Moskos and others from 08 before Moskos was turned back into a starter.
"Moskos has a strong fastball in the mid-90’s (up to 96 mph), a plus slider in the mid to upper-80’s and a mediocre change-up. As a reliever he probably won’t need to rely on his change all that much especially considering how strong his slider is."

-From the scouting book.
"He's a quality arm with great stuff, including a 94mph heater and plus slider"

-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"Moskos is a three-star player according to BP, who reveals that despite Moskos’ being drafted as a reliever the Huntington administration may be considering moving him back into a starting role. Moskos still has potential"

-From the Pittsburgh Lumber Company
"His mechanics were reportedly out of whack, and he was also said to be out of shape. There were whispers right after the draft that his maximum-effort delivery could be an indication that he had already peaked. That is looking more likely as his career progresses. He no longer displays the velocity on his fastball that he was said to possess in college."

-From Wilbur Miller:
"He threw in the low- to mid-90s with a lot of life as a closer, but only 89-92 when starting, and by the end of the season he was down in the high 80s. This should be of concern to the Pirates, because the pitchers they draft have a pattern of losing velocity after turning pro. Moskos supposedly had a very good slider that served as his out pitch, along with a curve and change that were not as well regarded. BA described his command as average."

Personal Consensus: I think the Pirates were wrong last year to try and convert to Moskos to a starter, and will continue to be wrong it appears with him. He was lousy in the lower minors as a starter. I think the team and Moskos would be much better served with him as a bullpen arm. I understand their idea, but he could've progressed very quickly through the system as a reliever, and that still could happen if they switch him back. I don't know that he'll ever make it a starting pitcher in the bigs.


Ross Ohlendorf
-The numerous Yankee blogs continue to be very helpful in this exercise with this piece from 2 years ago on Ohlendorf
"I see Ohlendorf as a David Bush type if he make the majors. He can't afford to lose any more of his strikeout rate, or else he'll never get enough major league hitters out to be an effective pitcher."

-Pat from WHYGAVS does a great job with an in-depth breakdown of Ohlendorf's pitching tendencies last season.
"there's two things to keep an eye on with Ohlendorf early in the year. The first is velocity. Is he hitting the high 90s? Is he doing it the second time through the lineup? The second is pitch selection. Is he working a changeup in? Is it effective at all?"

-Another Yankee blog (good lord there is a freakin' ton of these things) that breaks down Ohlendorf. This is from November 07.
"He throws a grounder-inducing two-seamer (96-97 mph) with a four-seamer that can top out at 98. His sinker is his primary pitch. He has a nasty slurve-like pitch that really causes strikeouts."

-Good piece on the return from the Nady Trade that includes Ohlendorf halfway down the page from Baseball Intellect.
"Ohlendorf is better than his numbers in New York indicate. I think he profiles best as a solid middle reliever type. I don't think he's a top set-up guy, but in that 6th and 7th inning, he'll give the Pirates a quality reliever that is under control for a number of years."

-Of course, here's the Wilbur Miller profile
"As a starter, he threw in the upper 80s to low 90s, relying on a sinker and slider to produce grounders. Once he started pitching in relief, his velocity improved to 94 and occasionally better. He's always struggled with LH hitters due to the lack of a useful changeup."

Personal Consensus: I think there will definitely be a place for Ohlendorf somewhere on the major league staff, the question is just where that is. I fully support the Pirates decision to test him out as a starter and think that his upside makes it worthwhile to do this and give him half a season or even all season to try and prove that he is worthy of a spot in the rotation. If he doesn't work out there, by all accounts he can be at least a solid relief pitcher as a fallback option.


Shelby Ford
-The Bleacher Report puts together the Pirates top 10 prospects.
"Ford looks like he has the potential and the chops to hold down half of the double play combination in Pittsburgh for years to come."

-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"An offensive player, Ford will have difficulties advancing through the system due to his aggressive approach at the plate"

-Wilbur Miller:
"It doesn't look like he'll have more than very good gap power and he'll need to draw more walks than he did in 2008 to have a decent OBP. He hasn't shown any consistent platoon split over the years. His numbers for 2008 overall were solid and not dominant, but you have to wonder what he'd do if he stayed healthy a whole year."

Personal Consensus: In a minor league system that is mostly desperate for decent-looking prospects, I think Ford has been one of the most overlooked guys around. He has been steady, if not spectacular at each stop, and while he has had some issues staying healthy, he also has shown enough upside to merit serious consderation as a future starter. I think this year will be a very big one for Ford. If he can stay healthy and onceagain bat .280+ with another healthy OBP and some continually developing power and decent speed and a decent glove, then all of a sudden he could be a legit replacement for Freddy Sanchez. But like I said, health is the first thing that must come for Ford.


Robbie Grossman
-From Minor League Baseball:
"Grossman is a good hitter, but his approach does need some work. He has a high leg lift that will need to be toned down.

-Grossman was rated as the 45th top prospect in the draft by Rivals:
"Grossman is a throwback type prospect who plays the game with passion and at full speed at all times. Not nearly as "toolsy" as other top high school outfield prospects"

-Ranked number 9 in the Bucs system by a MiLB blogger
"Very toolsy, could be a seven skill guy if he maintains the patience he showed in very brief rookie ball trial. High ceiling, could rank much higher a year from now."

-
Wilbur Miller:
"MLB.com characterizes him as lacking any above-average tools and playing above his abilities, which combined with the tweener tag gives him some things in common with Nate McLouth, who's a good example of why it's a mistake to dismiss players based on tags like that. BA did characterize him as having raw power potential and he showed good power in a workout at PNC Park."

Personal Consensus: Grossman is a long way off, hard to have much of a consensus except that he is an all-effort type of guy by all accounts, and that like most high schoolers it will probably figures to be 4 years or so before we can reasonably expect to see him in the bigs.


Daniel McCutchen
-From the Pinstripe Press
"McCutchen's future may be in the bullpen. "McCutchen pitches aggressively, which shows in his delivery at times and in his mound demeanor. The Yankees have worked with him to tone down somewhat."

-From the Scouting Book:
"Some see him as bullpen-bound, but McCutchen's lethal combination of a high-control 92mph fastball and knee-buckling curve/splitter, as well as his penchant to change speeds often, make him look like a better starting prospect to us."

-A story on him from the Post Gazette:
"Dan is a guy we feel can be a quality starting pitcher for years to come," Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said yesterday. "Tough, fearless, wants the ball every day, pounds the strike zone, throws first-pitch strikes. ... He absolutely is here competing for a job."

-A piece on the players acquired in the Nady trade from Baseball Intellect.
"McCutchen is an interesting piece in this deal because he has quietly put up quality numbers in the minors though he has always been old for his league. His stuff received an uptick in its quality in the past year, which makes him an intriguing guy to watch going forward."

-Wilbur Miller's profile:
"Baseball America characterizes him as a very aggressive pitcher who throws a four-seam fastball in the low 90s and a two-seamer slightly slower than that, with his best pitch being a curve. He also throws an improving changeup. His aggressiveness has resulted in low walk totals and his K rates have generally been good."

Personal Consensus: I'm really not at all sold on McCutchen. He is 26 years old, and you just don't see 26 year olds with only moderate minor league success succeed in the majors too often. I do think he is probably just about at his peak and will likely get at least a few starts in with the Bucs this season. There have been theories floated that he may be a bullpen arm, and I think that probably makes sense.


Donnie Veal
-Story on him from right before the Rule 5 draft.
"The stuff is still there -- evidence of that comes from his 476 strikeouts in 470 1/3 pro innings. But his command has eluded him, with 256 walks in the same timespan."

-From Chicago Cubs Online, an article from 2 years ago:
"Donald Veal has had success at each level so far and if he continues to have success as he ascends through the Cubs minor-league system, he could see Wrigley Field soon. If he does start in AA this year he could be called on to make a start if the Cubs injury problems come back again this season."

-Ominous stuff from the Scouting Book
"showing no signs of the curve that once made scouts rave. Add in the fact that he's a one-pitch flame-thrower who did most of his development under the 'care' of the Cubs trainers, and you have a recipe for a very fantastic, and very short, major league career."

-The requisite Wilbur Miller feature
"He's drawn comparisons to Dontrelle Willis, as he's a big LHP with a high leg kick and very good stuff, including a mid-90s fastball. After his big 2006 season, he was regarded as one of the best LH pitching prospects in the minors, with the high K rates and miniscule opponents' BAs being especially outstanding. Once he reached AA, though, he stalled due to his poor control."

Personal Consensus: I like Veal as a prospect, but really don't think he can survive the season with the big club. Maybe the Bucs can work out something like they did with Evan Meek last season, but I just can't seem him being good enough to justify using a roster spot on him for 6 months. The kid just isn't ready yet.


Jim Negrych
-A story on Negrych from the Green Weenie blog:
"Negrych cranks out line drives, and has pretty good gap power. He's patient at the dish, and his walks to K's ratio is almost 1:1. Throw in the fact that he finally had an injury-free year, and it added up to a break out season."

-A story on him from the Trib
"Despite his credentials as a college slugger, Negrych no longer swings from his heels in every at-bat. 'I don't really look at power numbers. I just want to make contact and get on base,' he said. 'In college, I was supposed to hit home runs. At this level, there's a lot of other things you can do to help the team.'"

-From Wilbur Miller
"I suspect his exact position could remain rather fluid. His position probably isn't terribly relevant because he is not good defensively, and by this I don't mean "shaky" or "inconsistent," I mean he just doesn't have the tools to play defense. He committed 31 errors in 2008. He's awkward in the field and doesn't have good hands or a good arm. It's unlikely he'll be a regular in the majors, but he could be a very good bat off the bench."

Personal Consensus: I essentially agree with what Wilbur Miller suggested. I think Negrych's bat will continue to propel him through the minors and that he will force his way into the bigs at some point, but I also don't see him ever being anywhere near good enough to be a legit starting player and could just be a solid bat off the bench who can play a few different infield positions at a mediocre level. I like Negrych and will be rooting for him because he is a Pitt man and I can't tell you the last time a Pitt player played in the bigs, but it was quite a while ago I'm sure.


Brian Bixler
-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"Bixler does nothing particularly well, but instead does everything at a level that is a little bit above average and simply continues to move up the rungs."

-From Wilbur Miller:
"Bixler was overmatched at the plate, incessantly chasing sliders far outside, sometimes fanning on three straight pitches in the same location. Initially, he was just as bad defensively, struggling with errors and misplays, but he eventually settled down and started to play much better in the field."

Personal Consensus: Bleh. Thats how I can best sum up my feelings for Bixler's future with the Pirates. He once looked like a half-decent prospect, but he was pretty lousy last year in the majors and I think can officially be labeled with the AAAA prospect tag. There is a very good chance that Bix and Luis Cruz will split the shortstop role once the inevitable Jack Wilson trade goes down. I'd be happy if he even proved to be a mediocre replacement.


Jamie Romak
-From Be Like Tike's BP recap:
"Romak has power and he has patience, but he generally does not hit for average."

-The Bleacher Report puts together the Pirates top 10 prospects. Romak is tied for 10.
"He has yet to prove that he can hit consistently enough to be a big league player. With a logjam of prospects ahead of him at outfield it is unlikely that we will see Romak with the club in 2009. But if he continues to make progress and work on hitting consistency, there's no reason that Romak can't make a splash with the Pirates in 2010 and beyond. "

-From the Project Prospect site
" A 6-foot-2, 220-pounder, Romak is the best .256 hitter you’ve never seen, tabbing a .383 OBP and .496 SLG through High-A."

-The Wilbur Miller piece
"Romak's approach at the plate is very similar to fellow Canadian Jason Bay's, as he often goes deep into counts by taking pitches and looking for one he can drive, but this sometimes leads to him getting into bad counts. Like a lot of hitters of his type, he tends sometimes to disappear offensively for days at a time. The strikeouts can't just be dismissed"

Personal Consensus: Romak to me is a poor man's Steve Pearce. And that is not a good thing in any way. I'd honestly be surprised if he ever gets anything more than a cup of coffee with the Pirates.


10 Other Guys To Keep An Eye On Who I Couldn't Find Much About:
Quinton Miller
Jordy Mercer
Chase D'Arnaud
Justin Wilson
Evan Meek
Brian Friday
Duke Welker
Jarek Cunningham
Matt Hague
Jeff Sues
Andrew Walker

Note that all of the above quotes are not mine and are taken from the sites linked above them. If these are your quotes and you have any issues whatsoever with me using them, please let me know and they will be removed immediately. Thank you.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Who's The Opening Day Left Fielder?

For the next few weeks, we'll probably be going a little heavy on Pirates stuff. Obviously, I'm not going to do anything crazy like ignoring the Pens (I'll have scatching posts about them if they keep up the terrible play from last night), Pitt hoops (I certainly won't ignore one of the top teams in all of college hoops), and the Steelers offseason. But I feel like I've written so much about them at this point that I'm repeating myself half the time. So instead of that I'll be turning my attention to dissecting and making predictions about the 09 Pirates.

Here is my first go at it, trying to gauge who will and who should win the opening day left fielder job:

Taking a look at the Pirates roster right now, its not hard to gauge who 8 of the 9 starters will be when the Pirates open the season April 6 in St. Louis so long as there aren't any injuries. Paul Maholm is a near-lock to be the ace, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss are locks to start at their respective positions and Andy LaRoche, though technically in competition, would have to go 0-for-Spring Training to lose the 3B job I think. So that leaves us with just left field.

Externally the Pirates are saying that right now they are fine with Nyjer Morgan starting in left field on Opening Day and that they have faith in him to get the job done. I don't believe that for a second.

I also think that this is the season we finally see the legendary Andrew McCutchen wearing a Pirate uniform beyond March. I'm not yet sure whether he can be the opening day guy (we'll examine that more in a bit) but I do think he'll be in left field (I think he'll start in left for at least this season before transitioning to center in the future) by season's end.

The Candidates: Nyjer Morgan, Eric Hinske, Andrew McCutchen, Craig Monroe, Jeff Salazar and Steve Pearce

So let's break these guys down one-by-one:Nyjer Morgan: I've never been much of a Morgan fan for any number of reasons, but to be fair to the guy, he has outperformed expectations for years and has been better in his limited everyday duty than I ever thought possible. In his 267 at-bats over two seasons the numbers have been pretty solid. Morgan has batted .296 with a .351 OBP. He's never going to be much for slugging, but he did manage a surprising 13 doubles last season thanks at least in part to his incredible speed. In the mostly punchless Pirates lineup, more powerful alternatives have to be at least considered. However he will be 29 in July and we've seen the most his skills can possibly offer us. He also is average as a fielder. Sure he may have made some crazy highlight reel catches over the past two seasons but too often he takes bad angles or delayed angles on fly balls and has to use his speed to make up for it. His arm is nothing special, either. That speed does allow him to be at least a solid fit in the spacious left field at PNC as he can cover more ground than alternates like Hinske or Monroe. His speed also doesn't pay as many dividends on the base paths as it should, as he has had some issues sliding into base and is just 16/24 on steals, a percentage that is below an effective level at the major league level.

Eric Hinske: Hinske was the top signing this offseason for the Pirates (Yes I rank him definitively above Ramon Vazquez) but was tagged mainly as a backup when signed. Hinske would be a power upgrade in the Pirates lineup. He is coming off a 20 home run season for the Rays in just 381 at-bats. Coming from the left side, he could easily crank 25+ in PNC Park's friendly confines. But there is also a reason why he has bounced around the last couple seasons. He has had some issues with low batting averages, high strikeout rates and mediocre OBPs and has big-time consistency issues. He also is less than special as a left fielder. In PNC Park that is a major strike against him. That's not to say he'd be a huge liability out there, but prior to 2008 he'd spent much more in the infield than the outfield, and he was mediocre as an outfielder for Tampa.

Andrew McCutchen: Cutch has long been considered the top prospect in the Pirates farm system, and even with the addition of Pedro Alvarez this past fall, Cutch is definitely the most proven commodity in the organization's minor leagues. He is a definite 4-tool prospect and many scouts think that the power will come around in time for him and making him a top-notch, 5-tool MLB star. The ceiling for this kid is superb and there is no question that at some point, most likely this season, he will be manning PNC Park's outfield. But there are many who think McCutchen has been a bit rushed by the Pirates to this point (though by Dunce Littlefield not by Huntington and company) and that he needs more time in AAA. His numbers last year in Indy were good, but not yet great. It probably wouldn't hurt to get him at least another couple months to gain confidence in Indy before he is given the big call. It's not as if this team is poised to win right now. Waiting til June or even later to bring Andrew up isn't going to hurt anyone and is probably the smart move. Plus waiting until that point would enable the Bucs to push the dates for McCutchen's arbitration back a whole extra season, similar to what Tampa Bay did a year ago with Evan Longoria.
Craig Monroe: Similar to Hinske, Monroe has a better power stroke than most of the players on the Pirates current roster. He has a very good shot to at least make the Opening Day Roster, but its more likely to be as a reserve. The big concern with Monroe have been steps backward. He strikes out an absolute ton, as well. The Batting Average, and as a result the OBP, have both been pretty crappy the past two seasons as well. I think Monroe could be a solid reserve and give the Pirates right-handed power off the bench, but as a starter I don't see any way he is a better option than any of the aforementioned players, even the still untested McCutchen.

Jeff Salazar: At age 28, Salazar's resume as a major leaguer includes just 275 at-bats and 4 home runs. Not what you'd want to see from a supposed power hitter. Last season with Arizona he struck out an alarming 41 times in 128 at-bats and batted just .211, though his OBP checked in at a solid .331 considering how low the average was. He also hasn't has a slugging of just .375 in his Major league career. Again not what you want from a guy who is supposed to pack an at least solid power punch. As a left off the bench, he probably has very little shot of making the roster considering his similarities to Hinske. As a starter, that shot is probably zero.

Steve Pearce: In 2007, Pearce took the minor league world by storm thanks to a 31 home run season across 3 different levels and was so good he even made it to the majors for 68 at-bats at the end of the season. 2008 brought a somewhat predictable crash back to earth. He was disappointing in AAA with just 12 home runs in 386 at-bats. He did find something of a power stroke at the major league level finally, with 4 home runs in 104 at-bats. Not a great ratio, but at least it was something. Pearce will be 26 on the date of the Home Opener, so he isn't as young as your typical prospect, but the power potential he has displayed makes him at least worth a look. What is also a negative against Pearce is that he is, at best, a mediocre outfielder. And that's probably being kind considering he has spent most of his career being hidden at first base. Pearce figures to be matched up with Craig Monroe for the role of a reserve power righty on the bench. Despite the disappointing 08 I don't think its wise to totally discard Pearce yet, but I think it is time to start viewing him more as a power bat off the bench instead of a potential starter. Putting him down in AAA likely won't do much for him, so unless Monroe is clearly the better player in Spring, I think Pearce should be heavily considered for an Opening Day Bench role.

The Best Solution: Eric Hinske is the best fit for this Pirates lineup right now. He has the power that would make him pretty unique on this roster and would look pretty good batting sixth behind Adam LaRoche, Ryan Doumit and Brandon Moss. That's not to say Hinske would get all the starts. Certainly Nyjer Morgan can prove effective at times and will get some playing time, and against tough lefties either Craig Monroe or Steve Pearce (whoever makes the roster) should be in the lineup. But Hinske is the best all-around choice. The assets that Morgan brings to the table (namely speed and ability to cover the outfield better) is outweighed by the large need the Pirates have for power. Of course both of these guys will only be holdovers until Andrew McCutchen proves himself ready in AAA. The bet here is that comes by June 15.

What Probably Will Happen: I think management's confidence in Nyjer Morgan is a little foolish, but I also think their emphasis on defense will end up with Nyjer Morgan playing left field on April 6, not Hinske. Again, no matter how much they like Morgan they have to be ready to shove anyone aside if McCutchen is tearing through AAA like they expect him to.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

In Honor of Valentine's Day, My Man-Crushes

After watching the Pitt hoops squad put together another win today over the middling Cincy squad that isn't yet ready to contend for the Big East, I'm just not sure I have it in me to write another "Sam Young is the man" or "Levance Fields is the best all-around point guard in college b-ball" or "Pitt's depth is what seperates them from past teams" post. I've written that enough this season, and Pitt didn't prove much of anything today that we didn't already know. A post like that seemed especially pointless because we'll have a real good idea about this Pitt squad after Monday night's showdown with UConn.

So instead I decided to go with a post that had at least a tiny bit of creativity and originality behind it. In honor of Valentine's Day, I put together my top Pittsburgh man-crushes. Don't judge me for it. These crushes are completely and totally heterosexual, they are just my infatuations with some of the many superb athletes in the Burgh.

10 James Harrison- Harrison is the ultimate underdog type of story. He's just an absolute beast on D as evidenced by his DPOY award and has a downright terrifying reputation as being one of the most ill-tempered people in football. He's just such a badass, you have to love him.9 Andrew McCutchen- I couldn't put together this list without at least including a Pirate on here somewhere. And while Cutch isn't technically a Bucco yet, he is the ultimate symbol of hope for this franchise. And in case you don't know, I'm always the optimist when it comes to the Pirates. Plus, this has to be the year he finally makes it to the show, especially with an incompetent like Nyjer Morgan playing left field.

8 Sam Young- Sam I Am has been an athletic marvel for 4 years at Pitt and will go down as one of the better scorers in school history (he holds the school single season record, is 10th in career points and has a good shot at cracking the top 5). He looks to have regained his swagger after some mid-season struggles and is playing terrific basketball right now. And did I mention he has a future in the NBA?

7 Hines Ward- How can you not love Hines Ward? He's the toughest wide receiver in football, is the most decorated receiver in Steeler history, is still putting up terrific numbers as his career has evolved into the form of a crafty veteran, and is almost universally adored by the massive Steeler Nation. And he's always smiling.

6 LeSean McCoy- Shady may not technically be a Pittsburgh athlete any longer, but I had to put him on here. He's one of the most dominant and incredible talents I've ever seen and if he doesn't evolve into a top-notch, 1000-yard rusher in the NFL I will be floored. The guy is a beast and carried Pitt football on his back to one of the biggest upsets in school history and the school's best season in 25 years despite an otherwise dreadful offense. So long Shady, you will be missed, dearly.

5 Troy Polamalu- Troy is one of the most unique and dynamic players in football. There isn't another defender who is quite like him. He changes the entire game of the offense just by dashing around like a mad man pre-snap. The signature long hair only adds to his legend. And when he gets the ball in his hands...look out.

4 Evgeni Malkin- Geno is just an absolute monster out on the ice. He is the best player in hockey, and I just don't see how you can make a winning argument for anyone else right now. The only reason he isn't higher is because he's been kind of a hard guy to connect with the last few seasons. He is starting to open up a bit but still has a ways to go. Still, its been good to at least get a glimpse of his personality in recent months.

3 DeJuan Blair- DeJuan is like the Hines Ward of college hoops. Always smiling, uses his physicality, passion and talent to overcome being a bit undersized, and it's next to impossible to hate him... unless you are playing against them that is. DeJuan gets a boost because of his local roots and because I can never remember a more beloved, more respected, and more connected college kid in the area. I imagine this is kind of what it was like when Dan Marino or Tony Dorsett were playing on their respective Pitt teams a few decades ago.

2 Sidney Crosby- Up until a few weeks ago, Sid would have almost certainly been numero uno on this list. His talent is remarkable, he is incredibly charismatic, is the face of not just his team but his league, and never seems to get shaken by the off-ice demands. He's also the biggest reason the Pens have enjoyed their incredible renaissance and has inspired incredible hope in this franchise and its fan base.1 Ben Roethlisberger- But with his second Super Bowl win a few 13 days ago there's just no way that I can deny Big Ben his rightful status as my number 1 man crush. Ben is the most unique QB in the NFL, a guy whose impact and play can't be quantified by the slightly antiquated NFL statistics. His ability to extend plays and take the right chances at the right time and his uncanny two-minute drill prowess is a sight to behold. I will mainain until my death that there isn't another QB in all of football that could have won the Super Bowl with this particular offense. For these reasons and for so many more Big Ben Roethlisberger is the ultimate man-crush. Not that's there anything wrong with that.Do you have a man crush? Let me know who it is in the comments below or by e-mailing me THREERIVERSPORTS@GMAIL.COM

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Pirates Stove Heating Up

After a slow and incredibly boring start to their offseason that culminated with the signing of Ramon Vazquez, the Pirates look as though they are finally set to make some moves to get things jumpstarted. And that is at least a little bit encouraging for us sickened Pirates fans.

Obviously the big highlight is the contract extension signed by Ryan Doumit yesterday. The contract for Doumit is a pretty nice on in my eyes. The deal should really only be evaluated on its 3 year amount, as I've always thought its pretty foolish to base any deal on the options because its so difficult to say what the state of Doumit and the state of the Pirates will be 3 years from now. Plus, if Doumit performs like the Pirates hope, the last year will likely be irrelevant, either because the team has turned itself around and the Bucs sign him to a new extension before that sesaon, or because the team still hasn't turned around and they deal him for spare parts (God I hope not!).

The three year deal has guaranteed money of 11.5 million, which is a pretty reasonable base pay for a catcher capable of becoming one of the 2 or 3 best hitters in the bigs at his position. If Doumit were to play all 5 years here and reach max incentives (highly unlikely given some of the clauses) the deal could reach 27 million, but if he does reach max incentives, then this deal is pretty much highway robbery for the Bucs it'd be so good.
The curious, and perhaps creative, thing about this deal is that the option years are triggered or declined at the same time. I can't recall seeing this type of deal anywhere else, though it's probably been exercised somewhere. So this essentially amounts to a 3 year contract and then a 2 year contract if the Pirates want it to be. The options are for at least 7.25 and 8.25 million per season (they go up if he reaches some clauses), so that second contract would be quite lucrative for Doumit and quite expensive for the Pirates if they choose to exercise it.
Some other moves the Pirates are making or considering:
-It appears neither Paul Maholm or Nate McLouth are going to get extensions done with the Pirates. Not too surprising, and in all honesty, I'm not too upset about either case. It may not be a popular view, but I think McLouth is headed for a regression season in 2009. Don't get me wrong, I like Nate, but to pay him based on his 08 season is folly, and I want to see it again from in 2009 before I am a firm believer. Never before in his career had he really performed anywhere near the level of last season, and I was also concerned by the major drop-off in his numbers following the all-star break last season. His OPS fell by over 100 points between his great pre-break numbers and his only a little above average post-break numbers. I do think he is definitely a nice starter around which the team can certainly build, but I don't see the urgency to lock him up. The same goes for Paul Maholm. I think Maholm is also a good piece to build upon, but I don't view him as much more than a 3 starter and think he could also be headed for a regression. He rarely gets any bats to miss, which isn't what you need from a top starter if you look at things from a statistical standpoint.
-The Pirates lost out on the Daniel Cabrera sweepstakes (oh darn...) but apparently were willing to bid quite a bit of money for his services, more even than the team Cabrera ended up signing with, the Washington Nationals, who gave him an exorbitant 2.6 million dollars. Really? The Pirates were going to offer him more than 2.6 million dollars? Who the hell thought that was a good idea. Sure the guy's got some skills, but look at these numbers! What part of those statistics offers encouragement to baseball people? Why are they constantly so enamored with Cabrera? I mean, maybe, just maybe, he just needed a change of scenery and his absolutely dreadful 2008 season was just the result of that, but is is worth 2.6 million dollars to find out? Absolutely not! This guy should be coming into major league camps on a minor-league deal, at best. If teams keep throwing this kind of dough at him, where's his incentive to improve?

-It appears as though the Bucs are more than willing to head into 2009 with Jumpin' Jack playing shortstop. Not exactly a shock at this point. And truth be told, I'm not too upset about this development, as clearly any prospect return would have been pretty minimal. My question, though, is this: Why not similarly offer to trade Freddy Sanchez? I know the Pirates just gave him an extension last offseason, but it's not like he is badly overpaid. And second base, for whatever reason, has become a much more scarce position in MLB nowadays than shortstop. Granted, they'd be trading Freddy at his lowest value in a couple years, always a no-no, but at least there are several teams out there that think he can at least return to 07 form if not his award winning 06 form. In 07, he had a .785 OPS, with a respectable .343 OBP. There are several teams with holes at second base right now where Freddy would be an upgrade at those numbers: Major upgrade for the Mets, White Sox, A's, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Royals (hard to say if they'd really be interested though), and Padres (unlikely because they're rebuilding, but still), and slight upgrade for Arizona, Cleveland (only slight because Asdrubal Cabrera is much younger and still has upside), the Twins (I'm not at all sold on Alexi Casilla and I doubt they are either), the Dodgers (Blake Dewitt has a nice upside, but is coming off a solid but unspectacular rookie campaign for a team that wants to contend now), the Giants (unlikely because they are rebuilding and have some in-house prospects). That's an awful lot of teams that Neal Huntington should be spinning his web to, and, while behind the scenes he may be, it certainly isn't a widely known fact, which makes me think it probably isn't a very active front.
-Denny Bautista will be brought back on a minor-league deal, and Chris Bootcheck was similarly signed to a minor league deal. Nothing too exciting at all on either one of these fronts, and let's hope both don't have to put on the Pirates jersey at any time after March.

-The Pirates are apparently after Rocco Baldelli, which is a surprising twist that I certainly didn't see coming. I mean yeah Baldelli has a load of talent, but he's been hurt how many times over the years, and is still dealing with the bizarre disorder that is plaguing his body and has caused him to miss a ton of time. Unless this is a very low-commitment deal, I don't like what I'm hearing. With Brandon Moss on the mend and little else in the way of outfield talent besides Nate McLouth looking major league capable (sorry I'm not at all a Nyjer Morgan fan), I'd rather put our resources elsewhere (like bringing back the now lost Jason Michaels) then pinning hopes on a deal with the enigmatic Baldelli.

-Hyzdu Headquarters has a rundown of the top 10 prospects in the Pirates system according to Kyle Stark on a recent FSN piece. I was a little surprised to see Andrew McCutchen ahead of Pedro Alvarez, but suspect that's mostly just because Stark hasn't seen enough of Pedro as a pro to fully grasp his abilities. I was also a little surprised to see Neil Walker all the way up at 6 given his struggles of the last two seasons, but then again, who else would be ahead of him? Also interesting was that Stark noted the two guys on that list to watch out for in this coming season are the two McCutchens, the aforementioned Andrew and the unmentioned Daniel. I suspect Daniel will probably not make the opening day rotation but will be among the first one or two called up when the inevitable ineffectiveness/ injury hits a starter early in the season. But I was much more excited to finally hear someone in the Pirates organization openly admit that Andrew McCutchen is close to big-league ready. Again, I don't think he is given much of a chance to make the opening day roster, but remember 2 years ago when he had a phenomenal spring and many in and around the franchise were claiming he could be up by mid-season 07? Yeah...so much for that. It seems like Cutch has been our top prospect forever, yet he just recently turned 22 years old. I think that, given the alarming lack of talent in the outfield, McCutchen will be all but forced into the bigs by the June or July when the team finally gives up on Nyjer Morgan as a everyday guy. To me this makes a world of sense, because he will be able to work out a lot of the kinks that typically plague rookies for these few months, and then should have an excellent footing established for the 2010 season. Not that any rational team would plan like this, but it would also enable the Pirates to get Jose Tabata time in Center Field in AAA, as he figures to be ready about a year after McCutchen, maybe slightly less.

Monday, August 4, 2008

A Re-Do Of The Pirates Past Drafts

I know the old hindsight is 20/20 argument, but these types of things are the kinds of articles I always enjoy writing.

Now that we actually have a baseball team that appears to have a sound drafting strategy, I thought it would be fun...err... I mean interesting to look back at the past first round picks and see what our other alternatives could have, should have, or would have been had we had competent people in charge. This is a quick column right now, nothing too in-depth, but we will go back until we stumble across the last Pirates first round pick to make an All-Star team.
2007
Obviously this was the Danny Moskos disaster, and the pick should have been Matt Wieters, 'nuff said. Do-over Pick: Matt Wieters
2006
The Buccos went with the workhorse Brad Lincoln in this draft, who promptly tore up his elbow. Grrreeat. Sitting at number 4 in this draft, the Pirates just missed out on the chance to pass on, I mean select Evan Longoria, but could have had their hands on Clayton Kershaw, Andrew Miller, Tim Lincecum, or Max Sherzer, among others. Do-over Pick: Tim Lincecum
2005
This draft actually looks like a very good looking back now, as they got Andrew McCutchen, arguably the top prospect in all of minor league baseball right now, 11th overall. Studs like Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, and Ryan Zimerman all went before Cutch, and the phenom that is Jay Bruce went directly after him, but I truly think this was the best pick Dunce Littlefield ever made as a GM with the Bucs. Do-over Pick: Andrew McCutchen
2004
Once again, the Pirates appear to have done a decent job with this pick, grabbing local kid Neil Walker 11th overall. Walker looks like a solid prospect, but probably hasn't reached the potential the Pirates had envisioned when he was taken there. Jered Weaver went directly after Walker and Stephen Drew went a handful of picks later, though. Do-over Pick: Stephen Drew
2003
The one Pirate first rounder to successfully make it to the big leagues, Paul Maholm, went 8th overall this year. And he actually appears to be a better player then at least 4 of the 7 players in front of him, and is probably on a similar plane with Rickie Weeks and Delmon Young and definitely behind Nick Markakis, the guys who went later offer some serious potential. Ian Stewart has shown considerable ability, and he went 10. Conor Jackson (19th) has had a monster season thus far, and Chad Cordero (20th) had a great start but has been mediocre of late. Do-over Pick: Conor Jackson
2002
This is one that's a real kick in the pants: With the first overall pick (in a draft with Prince Fielder, B.J. Upton, Jeff Francis, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, and Jeff Francoeur), the Pittsburgh Pirates select... Brian Bullington, a 22 year old RHP from Ball State who projects (at best) as a back of the rotation starter. What an atrocious pick this one was. Do-over Pick: Prince Fielder
2001
We'll never know what would have happened had John VanBenschoten remained a hitter, but one thing's for certain, it couldn't have been any worse then his pitching career has been thus far. This draft has actually been a pretty big bust except for Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira, but there are certainly better options than JVB. Do-over Pick: Jeremy Bonderman
2000
This one was a god awful first round, and the Pirates nabbed Sean Burnett at 19 (yes, the Bucs actually picked that low at one point). In fact, this draft was so atrocious, we'll stick with Burnett here just because everyone else isn't any better, and Burnett has potential as a long-term reliever, and we won't kid ourselves by dipping into the second round for a Grady Sizemore because that was never a real option, and it isn't fair to criticize based on that. Do-over Pick: Sean Burnett
1999
Looking at this draft makes me want to throw myself off of a cliff. The Pirates had a field to choose from that included: Ben Sheets, Barry Zito, Brett Myers, Jason Jennings, and Alexis Rios, and, naturally, they chose Bobby Bradley. Ouch. Do-over Pick: Ben Sheets
1998
Once again, the Pirates had a field of: Kip Wells, Brad Lidge, and C.C. Sabathia, and they took the legendary Clint Johnston. Do-over Pick: C.C. Sabathia
1997
The Pirates grabbed the force that is J.J. Davis with this pick at number 8, and ignored such career bums as: Michael Cuddyer, Jon Garland, Lance Berkman, and Adam Kennedy. Do-over Pick: Lance Berkman
1996
With the first overall pick, the Pittsburgh Pirates select... Kris Benson. (NOOOOOOOOO!) While Kris did give the city of Pittsburgh a smoking hot wife to stare at, he was a bum for a few years before bouncing around the league for a few more, all the while people snickered at the poor bastard for his crazy but inferno-esque wife. Do-over Pick: Eric Chavez
1995
Chad Hermansen went 10th overall to the Battlin' Bucs this year, prompting appoximately 7 straight years of Pirates fans fawning over his potential, and then booing him when he batted .025 during the season. Do-over Pick: Roy Halladay
1994
The Bucs pulled off a draft-day coup when they nailed Mark Farris 11th overall in this draft. What's that? You've never heard of that great Mark Farris? Really? Oh, yeah, that's right, because he's another enormous bust for this team. Do-over Pick: Nomar (NOMAH!) Garciaparra
1993
Charles Petersen, yep, that was their first rounder. I can't even form full thoughts right now I'm so irate. Do-over pick: Jeff D'Amico
1992
FINALLY! We have ourselves an All-Star, the Pittsburgh icon, the all-time great that is... Jason Kendall. Oh, shit, wait a minute, Kendall wasn't an all-time great. He was really just an above average catcher who played his ass off on the field, was a complete dickhead off of it, and was given a contract that was at least, twice as much as he was worth. Still, though, an All-Star is an all-star.