Wednesday, January 28, 2009

SB 43: My MVP Odds

No, these aren't the Vegas odds for the Super Bowl MVP, these are my own personal odds. I broke it down by team.

If the Cardinals Win
Kurt Warner 35%
Larry Fitzgerald 25%
Anquan Boldin 10%
Steve Breaston 9%
Edgerrin James 6%
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie 6%
Karlos Dansby 3%
Adrian Wilson 2%
Tim Hightower 2%
Roderick Hood 1%
Anybody Else 1%
My Explanation: Many might expect Fitz to be the favorite here, but unless he makes just absolutely sick catches (a distinct possibility) any stats that Fitz gets will reflect just as positively on Warner. Anquan Boldin, with two weeks to heal, figures to be a likely player to have a big game with so much to prove, but he's been a definite distraction and that will hurt him. He has the same issue that Fitz has in that Warner will accumulate any stats that Boldin has, too. And people like Warner a lot more than Boldin, the same can't be said as a negative against Fitz. My real dark horse is Steve Breaston. The Steelers kick and punt coverage teams are decent but are nothing spectacular and could be vulnerable to a dangerous player like Breaston. He's definitely capable of a Desmond Howard type of performance, which scares the daylights out of me. Between Edge James and Tim Hightower either one could rush in a TD or two each if things break in their particular direction, and while I don't see how either one goes for many yards, 2 TDs from a yard or two out could be enough to sway some votes. The Arizona defense has been terrific at making plays this postseason, especially their secondary, and any one of them could certainly step up and have a big day.

If the Steelers Win:
Ben Roethlisberger 25%
Hines Ward 20%
Willie Parker 15%
Troy Polamalu 12%
James Harrison 10%
Santonio Holmes 8%
Ike Taylor 3%
Nate Washington 3%
LaMarr Woodley 2%
James Farrior 1%
Anyone else 1%
My Explanation: Roethlisberger has to be the odds-on favorite here. He has played well this post-season in taking care of the ball and making the necessary plays. And we all know that the QB always gets more credit or blame for his team's performance. If Roethlisberger struggles then Hines becomes the next logical pick. He has the courageously-fighting-through-an-injury angle going for him and a TD or two, 100 yards again, and some vicious blocking will gain him serious consideration. The Zona defense, despite a renaissance these past few games, is still potentially vulnerable, and would anyone really be that surprised to see Willie go off on them for 100+ yards? I know I wouldn't. The team's two dynamic defenders, Polamalu and Harrison, should be treated as being pretty close to equal. Polamalu gets a slight edge because of his ability to get in the end zone if he can get his hands on the ball. However, no one is going to bat an eyelash if Harrison sacks Warner 2 or more times and forces a fumble or two that shifts the game. The guy is just unbelievably ferocious and I can't picture him having a big game. Santonio is the Steve Breaston of the Steelers. He could easily house another punt return, or at least have a big return, and is the most likely person on the team to catch a long TD or long pass anyway. Nate gets mention because he figures to at least get 1 or 2 deep balls tossed his way, and LaMarr Woodley and James Farrior are lurking as ultra-dark horse figures here.

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