Steelers- Ravens AFC Championship Preview

First, some links in this super-duper Preview of the AFC Championship edition on TRS.
-LaMarr Woodley breakout game and the weeks leading up to it are chronicled tongue-in-cheek by James Walker. I mean he wasn't really over-eating and depressed as Troy claims. I did chuckle a little when I read the line about James Harrison constantly being double-teamed. James Walker, if by "double-teamed" you mean being held by two guys at once, then I agree.

-Unfortunately Bill Simmons picked the Steelers in his weekly gambling picks column. Bad news considering the Sports Guy went 0-4 last week on his picks and openly admits that his prediction is a kiss of death.

-An update on the Ravens injury report. Samari Rolle is apparently out for the AFC Championship and Terrell Suggs figures to be a game-time decision. I have a VERY hard time believing that Suggs won't play at all in this one. even if its just as a third down pass rusher or something like that, I think Suggs finds his way onto the field.

-Ron Cook is apparently in love with Ed Reed. Reed truely is probably the most disruptive defensive player in football these days, followed closely by our own Troy Polamalu. But I agree with Cookie, Troy is number two on that list, and there's not a ton of room for debate there. I'm not gonna lie, with Ben's penchant for taking chances downfield, Ed Reed scares the bejeezus out of me for the game tomorrow. And Gene Collier pretty much backs that up in his article about the game as well.

-In an interesting piece, Mike Smith, the Falcons Head Coach and reigning NFL Coach of the Year, breaks down the two league title games. He gives some interesting insights into both squads, but also points out some of the obvious, like Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco similarities.-The always superb Peter King makes his pick for the AFC Championship game, as well as making some points about the game worth reading. King thinks the biggest difference in this game is going to be the injuries for the Ravens. I tend to agree.

-5 subplots for Ravens-Steelers. I think someone really needs to explore the similarities between Flacco and Roethlisberger. That hasn't been covered nearly enough.

-The Baltimore Sun profiles the divider line between Steeler Nation and Ravens country. I always think Nation sounds bigger than country, especially when it's all capitalized like that.

-The Sun also put together a comprehensive list of who different media outlets are picking to win the game. I really don't like when the vast majority of experts pick the Steelers. The obvious game rarely goes the way its supposed to.

-David Steele of the Baltimore Sun predicts that Steelers-Rvens is about to become the pre-eminent rivalry in football and that these two teams are set up to have incredible success for the forseeable future. I hope he's right, as Steelers-Birdies is never dull.

-Sportsline's AFC Title preview. Nothing earth-shattering here.

-John Harris and Mike Prisuta's column from the Trib. As always if you only have time for one, make it Prisuta. He is probably the most underrated writer in the Burgh. Prisuta is right when he urges the Steelers not to take unnecessary chances and tk "keep it simple" as he says. He urges the Steelers not to make the first mistake, and when the Ravens make a mistake, be sure to pounce on it. He's exactly right. The one thing that could swing this game to the Ravens, as I've already said, is turnovers and mistakes. They feed off that energy and that momentum and will bury the Steelers with it if they can.

-From the Steelers Today Blog, the Ravens are, in fact, hypocrtical about Hines Ward. I fully agree with this thought. Hines is a Raven-type player through and through. They'd love to have him I'm sure.

-From the Steel Curtain Rising Blog, another fan is equally as pissed about the ridiculous amount of holding of James Harrison that NEVER gets called, only instead of bad-mouthing NFL officials and calling them names not fit for print, this writer got a bit more creative and spun it in a humorous way.

-A weird, and mostly unprofessional list of reasons for Ravens fans to hate Steelers fans. Each one is about 3 paragraphs long, at most, which leads me to believe that the writer A) Has very little material, B) Is Lazy, or C) Is Barely Literate. Actually, I'm thinking he may have the trifecta. Why don't you goofy newspapers leave the trash-talking where it belongs: on the Blogs. I mean it's not like these are even good trash-talking points on Pittsburgh. I mean, "Weird Bridges"? Really? You can't figure out why we have 446 bridges? I don't suppose its because we have three rivers in the city is it? Maybe we should just have one insanely long bridge that is constantly congested, is that how Baltimorons (I doubt that's the name for people that live there, but its probably close) prefer it? I'd rather have hundreds upon hundred of bridges with little traffic on most than the other way around. Thanks. Glad you aren't a city planner. And you are complaining about the Fort Pitt Tunnel being a claustrophobic's nightmare? I suppose we should just ignore the fact that the Baltimore Harbour tunnel is more than twice the length of the Fort Pitt and is UNDER WATER!!!! I imagine claustrophobes have quite the issue with that, thank you very much. But then again, you're just a newspaper writer, what do you have to worry about facts for? Yet another example of the dwindling respect level in papers. (END RANT)

-Halfway down this page, the excellent Mike Lombardi gives some insight on Steelers-Ravens. Its interesting the Ravens have not won the time of possession battle in either playoff game. Also interesting that the Steelers have never lost a playoff game when Fast Willie is the starter (5-0). I hadn't thought of that.

Okay well that's enough of that, let's get to the breakdown.
5 Key Matchups

1. Ben Roethlisberger vs. Ed Reed
In case you skimmed through the above (and I don't blame you if you did), one of my key points was the work of the mighty Ed Reed. Reed can turn this game all by himself with one mistake by Roethlisberger. And with Ben's love of the downfield pass, that gravely concerns me. What we need to see is the Big Ben we saw in Round 2 who took great care of the ball, was quick to get rid of it, and any downfield chance he took was smart and had very low risk. Reed is as big of a gamebreaker as there is in football today, and probably has just as good a chance at scoring as the entire Ravens offense.
2. James Harrison vs. Joe Flacco
Some of Harrison's biggest games of his career have come against Baltimore, including that monster game a year ago when that catapulted him into a household name. Expect Dick LeBeau to unleash Harrison yet again and use him to try and rattle the seemingly unflappable young QB. As usual, expect Harrison to be illegally held every time he blitzes, and as usual I'm sure the refs will swallow their whistles whole.

3. Willie Parker vs. Ray Lewis
Obviously the matchup goes a lot deeper than this, but it's flashy symbolism for the Steelers desire to establish the run and the Ravens excellent run defense. Parker was superb last week, and I imagine Bruce Arians will do his best to try to get Parker going yet again in the early going of this one. And for that I wish him best of luck, because I can't imagine Ray-Ray and his crew letting up many yards, but if Willie shows that same burst I expect he'll be able to at least break off a few big gains even if he can't consistently pick up the yards.

4. Ravens Blitzes vs. Steelers pass protection
The Steelers O-Line was yet another pleasant surprise we got in Round 2, and if the Steelers are to win this game, they need to play well again. Expect Suggs, Scott, and Ngata to do their best to overpower and overwhem the much-maligned Steelers O-line. Max Starks has continued his fine work on the left side, but the rest of the line played very well last week as well, with the exception of the still-struggling Darnell Stapleton. Chris Kemoeautu was especially good last week as a pulling guard.

5. Dick LeBeau vs. Cam Cameron
Two of the very best coordinators in the game square off in what should be a very interesting matchup. I still think Cameron got a terribly raw deal last year in Miami and never had a shot to succeed. Still, he has been excellent handling Flacco this year and putting together great game plans for him to succeed. LeBeau meanwhile is one of the best defensive coordinators the NFL has ever seen and is known far and wide for his spectacular blitz packages that can confuse any QB, let alone a rookie.

Other Random Thoughts
-Something tells me that Hines Ward has a huge game in this one. We all know how well Hines and the Ravens get along. And we also know how Hines thrives in his role as an antagonist. He lives for games and moments like this one. He also has become one of the game's pre-eminent third down threats, and given the stingy Ravens D, I expect that third down situations will be a key to success for both squads.

-The Ravens injuries are going to play a factor in this, but I think the Samari Rolle injury is the one that hurts them the most. Rolle is a very good corner, certainly much better than his replacement, Frank Walker. With Santonio Holmes playing very well and Nate Washington turning into a legit downfield threat, having to play guys like Walker and Corey Ivy more than they otherwise would is going to end up biting the Ravens in the ass.

-I haven't watched enough Ravens games to know this intimately, but I'll be interested to see how Joe Flacco reacts to Troy Polamalu's pre-snap shifts. More experienced QBs typically audible or at least bluff audibling when they see Polamalu settle in somewhere, but I don't know if Flacco will do that, as I'm sure Cameron will have at least partially accounted for this and may not want Flacco overruling him on the field.

-I know he's been around for ages and can't possibly have a ton left in the tank, but I never like facing Derrick Mason. He's like Hines Ward without the ferocious hitting, and always seems to come up big against the Steelers.

-I'm not sorry to see Le'Ron McClain banged up. I figure Willis McGahee and (if he plays) Ray Rice will be mostly ineffective, although McGahee has had some moments against the Steelers D. What I don't want to see is a hungry, bruising runner like McClain barrelling through the middle of our D for 3 and 4 yards a pop. I don't know how effective we'd be at stopping him on a cold, bitter day like tomorrow.

-I'd like to see LaMarr Woodley build on that big game of a week ago. If James Harrison is getting doubleheld blocked by the Ravens, Woodley should be in single coverage and should be able to make the most of his opportunities to get to Flacco. I'd also like to see LeBeau deploy the unbelievably fast Lawrence Timmons get more snaps in place of Larry Foote. Sure Foote is the more stable and more sound player, but Timmons can make incredible plays happen, and can bring superb pressure from the middle of the field, as well as more than capably run with the likes of Todd Heap.

The Pick: Steelers 20 Ravens 13 This is going to be a ridiculously physical and violent game and surely won't be for the faint of heart. i expect the Ravens to do their best to try to set the tone early on with their physicality on defense. I think they also have a fair amount of success shutting down Willie Parker in the run game. But the Steelers will be persistent in setting up the ground game, even if it means a few early punts. Setting up even a mediocre rushing attack will enable Ben to test the Ravens corners downfield, and I think Santonio has another big scoring play, this time on a long pass from Roethlisberger that not even the great Ed Reed can stop. As for the Ravens offense, I think Flacco gets hit early and often but does his best to avoid taking big loss sacks and making costly mistakes. I think eventually, though, he is forced into a turnover or two and the Steelers capitalize.

So Here We Go Steelers.

I'll leave you with this

Pens a Little Gimpy

In addition to the players that were previously injured like Tenk, Zigomanis, TK, and Gonch, the Pens have a whopping 5 more players added to their injury report who will sit out tonight's game against Anaheim. Mad Max Talbot, Pascal Dupuis, Rob Scuderi, Kris Letang, and, unfortunately, Sidney Crosby. It does not appear as though any of these injuries will end up costing anyone a significant amount of games, but with all of these injuries piling, should we really be THAT surprised by the current record of our Penguins?

Consider all that we have lost:
-Zigomanis- Our faceoff ace, who gave us a consistent spark early in the season, hasn't played since early December and doesn't appear close to returning.
-Gonchar- Our best defenseman who was a legit Norris contender a year ago STILL hasn't played and is just now returning to the ice to skate. He figures to be at least a few weeks away in an absolute best-case scenario. In addition to all that, he was also arguably the most important cog in our power play.
-Whitney- Another one of our top defenseman who toughed out an injury at the end of last season and who would have been able to fill in nicely for Gonch had he not been injured as well. And Whitters doesn't even look like he's playing beyond about 80-90% right now and certainly has lost a little on his offensive game, where we need him most.
-Fedotenko- A gritty yet talented winger who was a key role player in supporting the offense.
-Kennedy- Another gritty player who is a tremendous 3rd/ 4th line spark plug and is one of the better energy guys on the roster.
-Fleury- A top-notch goalie who continues to have injury issues and might still be working to get some of the timing back since his injury.

And these are just the injuries that kept guys out for long periods of time. Little nagging injuries like the ones to the guys for tonight are likely to hamper their play for some time and bring the overall quality of the squad down.

But that's enough excuses. Tonight will be a weird game to watch I think with all the youngsters playing up on the lines, and (hopefully) Janne Pesonen and Billy Thomas getting some of their first serious extended game looks of the season.

NFL Mock Draft 1

As you'll find in the coming months, I'm something of an NFL draftnik (read: Big Loser). I'm not exactly the second coming of Mel Kiper, but I do read his stuff every chance I get and do a pretty fair amount of research and analysis and put together my own mock drafts and stuff like that in preparation for that glorious weekend in April. Like I said, I'm kind of a big loser. Anyway, with yesterday being the deadline for the juniors and 3rd year sophomores to declare, we now know the exact pool of players for the draft, and I just couldn't help myself from putting together the first of probably several mock drafts I'll put on this site.
I also did this in my part to see if I believed the rumors that Shady was a borderline first round pick and I must say... I now believe it. Unfortunately LeSean did not make it into the first round of this mock draft but I was very close to getting him in there. Maybe next time Shady.

1 Detroit- Matt Stafford QB Georgia- There will be some who claim the Lions, like the Dolphins a year ago, should would be better-served going a safer route and building up their lines with an Andre Smith. I respectfully disagree. Stafford has a JaMarcus Russell like arm, and really does have just about every other physical tool that you could possibly ask of him. Stafford's experience running Georgia's pro-style offense could potentially make him as NFL-ready as Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, although that success will be tougher to come by considering he doesn't have the talent around him. If the Lions make a play for Matt Cassell or some other QB in free agency, though, then you can switch this pick immediately to the aforementioned Smith, and expect a second or third round QB pick.

2 St. Louis- Andre Smith OT Alabama- For the second straight year the Rams have the second overall pick, and its no secret they want to address their O-Line yet again. If Smith is on the board, they should run up to the podium with the pick. I suppose there could be interest in Ole Miss's Michael Oher or Virginia's Eugene Monroe, but I think Smith is the best player on the board.

3 Kansas City- Eugene Monroe OT Virginia- A year ago the Chiefs had a draft that the experts fell over themselves praising. Unfortunately, that hyped class was not at all productive and led to new management in KC. It's hard to say what Scott Pioli will do here, as the Pats were all over the board during his tenure and were typically reloading, not rebuilding. It will be interesting to see what happens with their head coaching situation. If Herm Edwards keeps his job, then I just don't know anything anymore because he is a truly awful head coach. I don't expect to see a QB taken here, though, even if Stafford is on the board, as Tyler Thigpen put together a surprisingly capable season. Monroe is an excellent player already, and while O-Line isn't the Chiefs biggest concern (that would be their dreadful pass rush) I don't think they will reach for an Aaron Maybin or Brian Orakpo here.

4 Seattle- Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech- This pick seems too obvious to not happen, at least for now. The Hawks are in desperate need of an offensive playmaker, and Crabtree fits that bill pretty well. He might be the most talented receiver to come out of college since Larry Fitzgerald left Pitt for the 2004 Draft. Certainly the Hawks are not short on needs, though, and may consider building with the lines or another position instead.

5 Cleveland- Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest- The Browns defense was terrible last year and despite their struggles passing the ball, the struggling D was what really led to the underachieving 2008 version of the Browns. Curry is the best defender in this draft in my opinion and will be a tremendous 3-4 'backer for Eric Mangini.

6 Cincinnati- Michael Oher OT Ole Miss- The Bengals are a train wreck yet again, and I'll never figure out how Marvin Lewis still has a job. One of many needs for this team is on their offensive line and Michael Oher, one of the more hyped O-Lineman to ever come out of college thanks to the work of Michael Lewis, fits the bill. The Bengals could also use some offensive weapons, so don't rule out a Beanie Wells here

7 Oakland- Aaron Maybin DE Penn State- You can never be certain about just what is running through Al Davis' mind, especially given his penchant for irrationally selecting playmakers over team needs. If Crabtree is on the board it's pretty much a given that he's the Raiders pick, but I don't see that happening. The Raiders could use a better pass rush presence, and Maybin figures to be the best edge rusher on the board. I think he could easily slip lower than this given his one-year-wonder status at Penn State. For now I'm going to slot him in here given his natural skills, but that could definitely change.

8 Jacksonville- Jason Smith OT Baylor- The Jags need help on both lines, as well as at Wide Receiver, among some other spots. I have difficulty seeing them picking yet another early round receiver unless Crabtree falls, which I doubt. Smith projects to be a solid tackle and with Khalif Barnes expected to be peacing out of Jacksonville, Smith should get an immediate opportunity to help a pretty crappy line.

9 Green Bay- Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State- Certainly the Packers wouldn't mind getting a defensive lineman here, whether it be a pass rushing end like Brian Orakpo or a run-stuffer like BJ Raji. However, their secondary is also in need of a talent infusion, and Jenkins is a legit top 5 talent and would be difficult to pass up.

10 San Francisco- Brian Orakpo DE Texas- I thought long and hard about slotting USC QB Mark Sanchez here, but until I here something more from the 49ers about that, I can't believe they'd go after another top 10 QB after the unmitigated disaster of Alex Smith. Orakpo is a very good pass rushing lineman and will beef up a weak Niners D.

11 Buffalo- Everette Brown DE Florida State- The Bills definitely need more of a pass rushing presence, and that's something Brown can definitely do. He should be able to step in and fill a role immediately and could develop into a very good end for this Buffalo defense and complement their DTs. This might be construed as a reach, but his abilities as a speed rusher right out of the gate should seal the deal for Buffalo. The Bills are also one of a couple teams that may consider Mark Sanchez or could look to the offensive line as well.

12 Denver- DT B.J. Raji Boston College- The Broncos defense absolutely collapsed toward the end of the season and was undoubtedly the biggest reason this team missed out on the playoffs despite playing in the dreadful AFC West. Raji and DT is no slam dunk, though, as pretty much the best defender on the board figures to be the pick for the Broncos as they have that many different needs. A wildcard pick would Knowshon Moreno, as you've got to think the scrap heap back days of the past are over.

13 Washington- Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech- The Skins need definite defensive line help despite the addition of Jason Taylor. Johnson is an amazing athlete and has incredible size at 6-7. They may also look to the offensive line for help if someone were to slip, but that didn't happen in this scenario. Also possible could be Mark Sanchez as its hard to tell how they truely feel about Jason Campbell.

14 New Orleans- Rey Maualuga LB USC- As usual, they are in serious need of defense in New Orleans. It remains to be seen how much upside Maualuga has, but he is already a very, very good linebacker and is probably the odds-on favorite to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year right now if he lands somewhere that lets him start in the middle right away. The Saints could also look for secondary help as well here.

15 Houston- Vontae Davis CB Illinois- The Texans have a number of needs, and after a promising finish to their 08 season, I think this team might be on the verge of finally making a serious playoff push. Davis may not be able to step right in and start, but he could certainly at least bolster the overall depth of a unit that may not be the worst in the league, but definitely leaves something to be desired.

16 San Diego- James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State- First let me say that it greatly irritates me that the Chargers made the playoffs but yet get to pick in front 5 non-playoff squads. I think the playoff teams should be moved to the back of the line. Anyway, Laurinaitis figures to be just the type of player they'll want. He is more than NFL-ready and figures to step right in and get serious playing time and play very well for a team that is nearing the end of any potential long playoff run.

17 New York Jets- Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri- The Jets certainly still view themselves as legit contenders and I fully expect them to be content to go to war with Kellen Clemens in 09. Adding a top of the line deep threat like Maclin would go a long way toward helping Clemens for the long term and hopefully for the short term. Of course there is a long history of rookie receivers not fitting in during their first season, so I expect them to look long and hard at other options, probably defensive line and in the secondary.

18 Chicago- Tyson Jackson DE LSU- The Bears probably wouldn't mind getting Maclin, as they were hurt by not having Bernard Berrian on the roster this season. However, with Devin Hester developing into a similar player that isn't necessarily a given, either. The Bears D took a step back this year, and adding Jackson gives them a monster defensive end who could maybe end up as a defensive tackle at some point. For now he projects as a very good run-stopping end even if the pass-rushing skills may not have developed yet.

19 Tampa Bay- Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia- Yeah the Bucs fans may not totally agree with this pick so soon after the Cadillac Williams bust, but I don't think the Bucs can pass up this type of player. Moreno is a rare talent and can add a big spark to that offense. They will also look at defensive tackle and offensive line as possible positions to address.

20 Detroit- Eben Britton OT Arizona- The Lions do their best to follow the Falcons blueprint of a year ago. They snatched up what they hope will be their franchise signal-caller at the top of the first round and they now reach a little bit for an offensive tackle who should step in and start immediately.

21 Arizona- Chris "Beanie" Wells RB Ohio State- I don't think there's any doubt which position the Cardinals have to be thinking about here. Of course their draft spot could be as much as 11 spots lower than this one, so things would look differently from that spot. For now, though, I think they would have a difficult time passing up on a potential franchise back like Wells given the struggles of Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower. Wells should be able to immediately give this team a starting caliber back capable of going for 1000+ yards. Of course, the Cards also need help on their defense, which struggled through much of the regular season yet has come alive in the postseason.

22 Minnesota- Mark Sanchez QB Southern Cal- This is a tough call for me. On the one hand, the Vikes aren't going anywhere without a better QB than Tavaris Jackson and will continue to waste Adrian Peterson's incredible talent. On the other, I think Sanchez is going to need at least a year or more to develop and a team coming off a division title isn't going to want to wait a year or more for its first rounder to develop. Still, I think the Minnesota fans will be rioting if the Vikes pass up Sanchez AND don't bother bringing in anyone else to challenge Jackson and Frerotte.

23 New England- Brian Cushing LB Southern Cal- The Pats are usually a pretty unpredictable team in these drafts, as Bill Belicheck is never afraid to march to the beat of a different drum. I think they wouldn't mind adding even more youth to their linebacking corps, and after the smashing success of Jerod Mayo a year ago, who can blame them? Cushing would be playing on the outside instead, and should be able to make an impact immediately as a situational player. They may also look at cornerback or a potential offensive playmaker as well.

24 Atlanta- Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss- The Falcons nearly took Glenn Dorsey a year ago, and while no one is going to argue that pick now (that pick being Matt Ryan of course), there is no denying they still need DT help. Jerry might be considered a reach by some here, but I doubt the Falcons care, as he fills a need on a team that is suddenly close to being a title contender. They could also consider another weapon for Matt Ryan to work with.

25 Miami- D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt- Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano invested heavily in the offensive and defensive lines last year in the draft and in free agency. Now they can look more at need, though I certainly wouldn't bet against them going after more players on the lines. Moore came out a year earlier than he should have probably, but is still a first round talent and could turn out to be the best corner from this draft.

26 Baltimore- Percy Harvin WR Florida- I doubt the Ravens could have expected Harvin to last this long, and I doubt Harvin would have expected it either. He doesn't have a definite position which is why he has slipped to this point in the draft, but having that kind of a playmaker for this offense could really help out Joe Flacco and could help put some more bite into this offense. They may also consider a linebacker or a corner given some free agency issues there.

27 Indianapolis- Sen'Drick Marks DT Auburn- The Colts D Line has fallen a long way in the couple years since their Super Bowl run and they need a talented young playmaker like Marks to hopefully turn that unit around. Marks may require a bit of timebefore he develops into the player he can be, but the talent and potential are definitely there.

28 Philadelphia- Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State- Pettigrew has the talent to go much, much higher than this in the draft and very well could if the right team gets enamored with him. He is a true freak of nature and can not only function well as a receiver, but also appears to be more than capable staying home to block. They also may look at their line or a safety, but I think that Pettigrewwould be way too much of a steal to pass up at this point.

29 New York Giants- Clint Sintim LB Virginia- This pick will depend at least partially on the Plax Burress situation. If he's no longer with them or is a guest of New York state at the time, the G-Men may make a reach for someone like Kenny Britt. For now, Sintim makes sense as he is already a strong NFL-ready linebacker. Linebacker is typically one of the most rookie-friendly positions, and I think Sintim could have an immediate impact for a squad that doesn't figure to want to want to wait around for a prospect to develop.

30 Tennessee- Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland- It's about time the Titans finally invested into a wide reciever who could develop into a legit top 2 receiver, and Heyward-Bey fits that billing. Heyward-Bey has very good physical skills and could jump up this board with a nice combine. For now I am sure the Titans would love to get their hands on him here.

31 Philadelphia- Duke Robinson G Oklahoma- The Eagles figure to lose at least one and maybe both of their offensive tackles this offseason, so that will certainly be a priority for them. Robinson might be a bit of a reach and projects as a guard, but this late in the first round, it'd be hard to fault them for reaching for anything along the O-Line. Keep in mind though, that there are also several solid interior linemen still on the board that rank about the same and it may just come down to personal preference.

32 Pittsburgh- Alex Mack C Cal- Just so no one accuses me of jinxing the Steelers, let me preface this by saying that I did not put them last for any homerist reason, I did it because I just went by their regular season record in predicting how the playoffs would play out, as that seemed the only logical way to do it. Anyway, there figure to be several fringe first round interior linemen on the board the way things are shaping up right now, so the Steelers will likely have to go with one of them. While Mack is technically a center, I see no reason he couldn't shift to guard instead. About the only other spot I could see the Steelers addressing would be the defensive line, which has gotten frighteningly old lately.

NFC Championship Game Preview

After a rough second round stab at picking NFL games (just 1-3, that’s what I get for picking all 4 home favorites) I’m now just idling along at 4-4 for this playoff season. Needless to say, that’s not the kind of results I was hoping for when I decided to pick this year’s NFL playoff season. I’m only picking the NFC Championship game today and will have a more in-depth breakdown of Steelers-Ravens up for tomorrow.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

I nailed both of these picks in the first round, but unfortunately I screwed the pooch and badly underestimated both in the second round. Awful QB play by the opposition was the key for both squads advancement to this point, as the Eagles have knocked off Tavaris Jackson and Jake Delhomme who choked so bad I thought someone was going to have to do the Heimlich Maneuver on him. The Cards benefitted from Eli Manning’s reversion to the crappy Eli Manning that we all knew and loved prior to his late 2007 surge.

For Arizona, it’s all going to come down to the incomparable Larry Fitzgerald. There shouldn’t have been any doubt prior to the playoffs, but in case some fans still weren’t aware, I think Larry has officially cemented himself as the best receiver in football. He has been unbelievable in the playoffs after yet another monster regular season, and it’s a mystery to me as to why Carolina wasn’t constantly putting 2 and 3 defenders on Fitz given that Anquan Boldin was out. If Larry gets loose again and the Eagles aren’t able to make adjustments to at least keep him in check, the Cards offense will run wild on Philly. However, while I did say that Philly benefitted from the lousy QB play of their opposition, some definite credit should go the play of their D, and it will be very interesting to see how Kurt Warner matches up against Jim Johnson’s superb unit. Warner has been in this situation too many times before to lay an egg like Eli or Jackson did, so I don’t expect to see the same struggles, but I’d be more than willing to bet that Zona’s offense is held mostly in check except for the inevitable game-changing catches that Larry always seems to make. Arizona’s running game has also come to life of late, putting together a stunning 145 yards on the ground against Carolina last week. Edgerrin James has also had some spring back in his step. I don’t expect Johnson’s defensive schemes led by the likes of tackling machines Quintin Mikell and Stewart Bradley and blitzing stars Darren Howard and Trent Cole to be susceptible to a surprise ground attack from the Cards.

The Eagles late-season rejuvenation has been led by the similarly rejuvenated Donovan McNabb. Remember McNabb being benched in favor of Kevin Kolb? Yeah, that was all anybody could talk about that week, the fall of Donovan McNabb. So much for that, eh? Now he has his team 60 minutes away from his second Super Bowl berth. And I honestly can’t figure out how he’s doing this. Brian Westbrook has a few really good plays a game in him, but he’s a little on the gimpy side. And yeah DeSean Jackson has been very good as a playmaking rookie, but I mean, c’mon, he’s still a rookie wide receiver. McNabb’s use of his feet has been probably the biggest difference maker for this otherwise very average offense. His scrambling ability has neutralized blitzes and bought him time for Jackson and Kevin Curtis to get open.


The most interesting aspect of this game, though, will be the work of the Arizona Cardinals defense. The Cardinals D was gouged for tons of points and yards numerous times this season. They gave up 35 or more points 4 times in their final 6 regular season games, a truly appalling number for any team, let alone a playoff team. And yet in the playoffs, they have been very good. They have given up yards, sure, but they have made plays all over the field when things mattered the most. I mean Jake Delhomme had 6 turnovers for god’s sake! The Arizona secondary may be occasionally vulnerable, but they have outstanding athletes like Antrel Rolle and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie back there that can change the game when you least expect it. I really have very little idea what to expect from this unit in this game, but I’m sure it will be entertaining to watch it all go down.

The Pick: Philadelphia 27 Arizona 21
Jim Johnson’s superb game-planning helps to at least neutralize Fitzgerald, and forces Warner to throw to a gimpy Anquan Boldin and his other, less-talented options like Steve Breaston. Warner, as steady as he has been this season, is forced into a few mistakes by Johnson’s blitzes. Donovan McNabb avoids the dry heaves to scramble around and make plays with his feet and with his arm to DeSean Jackson, who I think has a big game thanks to his incredible speed.

Sid appears to be Okay; Is Day-to-day

We can breathe a little easier, Pens fans. It appears as though our local hockey god, Sidney Crosby, is going to be okay after suffering some sort of leg injury last night against the Capitals. While there is still no word about exactly what type of injury it was or the exact severity of it, Crosby is expected to only miss practice today and potentially the game tomorrow against Anaheim, but after that should be able to return to the lineup. There will be no devastating high ankle sprain to derail his season like we saw a year ago.

I don't have to tell you how good it is to hear that number 87 will return to the Pens lineup shortly, as with the team's season very much in limbo, we need our best players to be at the peak of their powers, and that starts with El Capitan.

The Rivalry Is Officially On

The NHL has been pimping it for 4 seasons now, stories have floated around about cold feelings, and lord knows there is a ton of playoff history there, but until now it all felt a little forced. There should be no question anymore, Penguins-Capitals has definitely become a rivalry now thanks to the antics of one Alexander Ovechkin.

In case you missed it, the Pens dropped a very irritating and frustrating and worrisome game to the now-hated Caps, 6-3. Why was it irritating? Because Ovechkin, who had a monster night, was whooping and hollering and yelling at every chance he got tonight, doing his best to get under the Penguins' skin, and boy was he succeeding. Why was it frustrating? Because most of the Caps' goals, especially in the third period, were not very good goals, and continued to demonstrate the worrisome inconsistencies of Marc-Andre Fleury. It was also frustrating because the Caps committed a number of dumb penalties, and the pens just couldn't capitalize. Why was it worrisome? Because the Pens had about 10 healthy guys at the end of the game. Max Talbot, Rob Scuderi, Kris Letang, and (gulp) Sidney Crosby (genuflecting) all left the ice with injury concerns. Let's hope they are all okay, but all 4 looked to be at least semi-serious, and it goes without saying that losing Crosby for any amount of time would be disastrous.

As I said, this matchup, at least in my mind, has taken the spot of the second strongest rivalry the Pens have, behind of course just the Flyers. Of course it's not all Ovechkin. There's Alexander Semin's now famous disaparaging words about Sidney Crosby to consider. There's Ryan Whitney injuring Ovechkin a few years back, there's the cold war developing between Geno and Ovechkin with Crosby standing up for Geno any chance he gets. All in all, this really has the makings of a terrific rivalry, but that's really for another day and another game.

The fact remains that the Pens dropped yet another game after a nice showing yesterday against the Flyers. I just really wish this team could get itself straightened out. They continue to drive me up a wall with this inconsistency.

I know a lot of people lately have been harping on potentially firing Michel Therrien. And while Therrien also has a large amount of defenders that are in his corner, I think some sort of a change must be made. My suggestion is that this change needs to be in either getting rid of or reassigning Mike Yeo. Yeo is the guy in charge of the power play for the Penguins, and there is no denying that the Pens power play has been an absolute disaster of late. The Pens did manage a power play goal on 5 chances, but they also nearly gave up a short-handed goal on a 5-on-3 advantage. For a unit with as much talent as the Pens, there is no logical way that this team should rank 20th in the NHL. I think something should be done, and overhauling the power play is probably a good start.

Shady's Gone

It turns out that the original reports were true. LeSean "Shady" McCoy, the superstar tailback of our Pitt Panthers, is going pro. This isn't too surprising to hear, as we heard last week that Shady was going pro, and let's be honest, we've been expecting this since he first burst onto the scene last September. Shady is an NFL talent, and I think he probably thought he'd done more than enough in his time at Pitt and was ready for the next adventure.

He also added a caveat about wanting to do what's best for his family in his speech, and that is more than commendable. I think most Pitt fans will back me when I say, good luck to you in the coming months Shady as you prepare for NFL life, and we wish you tremendous success as an NFL back. You will be missed.

Pens Find Their Groove; KO the Flyers

Well we had at least one night where we could forget the woes of the 2008/09 Penguins, and what better opponent to do it against than the hated Filth-adelphia Cryers. As it always against Philly, this one was a physical war that at times resembled more of the forth-coming Steelers-Eagles Super Bowl (whoops I'm not supposed to make that prediction until Friday!) than a hockey game.

Eric Godard and Riley Cote got things going early with a very short, one-sided fight that Godard won, and was probably a little lucky to have the officials step quickly in, because Cote is known far and wide as a comeback kid in these fights. This set the tone, and while there was only one more fight the rest of the game, the hitting was fierce the whole way through.

As for the portion of the game that involved actual hockey playing, the Pens newly formed top line of Sidney Crosby centering Evgeni Malkin and Matt Cooke was clicking on all cylinders for 60 straight minutes. Geno and Cooke both put tallies on the board and Sid assisted both times, and the unit as a whole was wreaking havoc all game long on Marty Biron. It was incredibly encouraging to see that kind of pressure being generated by our top unit, and J-Staal also continued his excellent work since the contract extension, chipping in a goal and playing his usual solid work on the defensive end.

Believe it or not, the Pens are actually still 2 games over .500 right now at 21-19-4, and while those 4 OT losses, technically would push their total losses past their wins, having 46 points in 44 games is over .500 in my book. What this means is that, despite the gloom and doom in town, this team is still very much alive, and very capable of getting right back into the playoff mix if they can bottle some of the excellent they demonstrated tonight. The 8th place Canes have just 1 more point then the Pens in the same amount of games, and we are still just 10 points out of first with a game in hand on those first place Rangers. All very encouraging figures when you think about how bad this tailspin has been.

Now, I'm not saying the Pens are out of this slump, because I've said that previously on this site, and was quickly proven wrong, but a win like this one is the sort that gives a serious glimmer of hope to the players on the roster. We should get a good idea about any possible carryover momentum pretty quickly, as the Pens taken on their sudden rivals, the Washington Capitals, tomorrow for the start of a critical 5 game home stand.

Go Pens.

Shady Still Uncertain

Despite the reports last week that Pitt's superstar tailback LeSean McCoy was headed to the NFL, things are still very much unclear with regard to Shady's future. This drama won't be able to be drawn out much longer, as the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft is this coming Thursday, just two days away from now.

McCoy has apparently been openly emotional about this process, and is quite obviously having a very, very difficult time deciding between staying or going. As always with cloak-and-dagger type stuff where minds are changing behind closed doors, there are a number of rumors circulating around the situation. Many are claiming that Shady's mom is the one urging him to turn pro for the financial security and that Shady is having second thoughts because he loves college ball, yet doesn't want to go against his mom and then risk an injury.

I'm not about to go passing any sort of judgment on Shady or his mom or anything personal like that, because I have no sort of inside scoop and these sorts of rumors turn out to be wrong as often as they are right.

Only two more days until we know just how high (or low) our expectations for the 2009 Pitt Football team should be. Should be a nerve-wracking couple days for Pitt fans, and I just want to wish good luck to LeSean and his family in making this obviously difficult decision, and let him know whatever he ends up deciding, he'll always be a beloved figure in Pitt history.

Diary of a Crazy Sunday

What do you get when you combine 5 hours of sleep, a nasty hangover, the number 1 basketball team in the NCAA, Steelers-Chargers, and the return of Jack Bauer? A Three River Sports running diary of course! What follows spans a hectic 13 1/2 hours for yours truly.

8:30 (beep, beep, Beep, Beep, BEEP, BEEP, BEEP...)"ugh, stupid alarm" (pressing sleep button)
8:37 (beep, beep, Beep, Beep, BEEP, BEEP, BEEP...) "NO! There is no way it's time to get up yet (pressing sleep button)
8:44 (beep, beep, Beep, Beep, BEEP, BEEP, BEEP...) "crap" I finally stumble out of bed cursing those extra drinks I insisted on last night at Peter's Pub.
8:46 Trying to shower myself awake
9:30 Only about 25% awake, I embark through the frigid Oakland weather up the large hill in front of the Petersen Events Center that feels roughly like Mount Everest right now. Why did I leave at 9:30 AM for a noon game you ask? Because these are the sacrifices necessary when you are a student fan on the number 1 basketball team in the land. If you don't get to the Pete a minimum 2 1/2 hours early for Big East games, you're seat in the Oakland Zoo just isn't good enough. Plus, it's sort of like a badge of honor. "Oh yeah, well I got up here at 9:30 and I was still a little bit drunk!" Damn I'm going to miss college.
10:20 They finally let us into the Zoo a little before the designated 10:30 time, and everyone rushes inside, only 100 minutes now until the game gets under way! It's always a little weird to look around the Zoo and see it about 80-90% full and see no more than a couple dozen people in the rest of the arena this early.
10:50 Me and my buddies spend the first half hour of the pre-game time discussing the Steelers-Chargers game at every single position. Yeah, we're kind of fans. We're getting a little tired of that discussion, and, distracted by the warming-up Panthers we decide to discuss how far we think each player on the Pitt roster will go with basketball
11:30 Our Consensus: Sam Young hangs around the NBA for about 6 or 7 years as a borderline rotation guy on bad teams or a 10th/ 11th man on good teams. DeJuan Blair has a 10+ year career and spends the majority of that time starting. We also decide he gets badly overpaid at least once in his career. He ends up being about a 15-and-8 guy for his career. Levance Fields goes the Jaron Brown/Julius Page/ Antonio Graves/ Carl Krauser route and plays in the CBA or something weird like that for a couple yers and eventually ends up coaching somewhere before long. Tyrell Biggs does similarly for a year or two and then leaves the sport behind. Jermaine Dixon is a D-Leaguer or something, partially because of name recognition, and kicks around Europe for a while. Gil Brown matures into a stud at Pitt and plays in the NBA, Brad Wanamaker becomes a better Antonio Graves and is a CBA/ D-League type player, as well. Nas Robinson turns into a good player and gets a brief shot at the NBA that doesn't last long. Ashton Gibbs is a CBAer, as is Tra Woodall.
11:47 HERE COME THE PANTHERS!
12:00 Tip-off gets under way with DeJuan losing the tip to a guy wearing a freaking Rip Hamilton schnozzo mask.
12:20 St. John's is a frisky bunch. DJ Kennedy is playing well. Pitt really isn't. Just a sloppy start to this one.
12:56 Halftime. Pitt pulled ahead 41-36 late in the first half. D.J. Kennedy is a hell of a player. I think he was fouled somewhere between 4 and 3,000 times in the first half. Like a poor man's poor man's poor man's Dwyane Wade. Why didn't Pitt go hard after this kid? DeJuan got in foul trouble with 4 minutes to go in the first half. No good Blair, we need you to be nice and available in the second half. Gil Brown, Sam Young not looking good at all. Jermaine Dixon had a decent half as did Levance. Should be an interesting second. Let's hope they remember they need to play defense.
1:19 Just got word from my buddy watching at home that I made an appearance on the tube. Bad-ass-ness. I freakin' love being in the Zoo.
1:30 Things looking much more comfortable, Pitt up double digits. DeJuan has taken control underneath, and I can't be positive, but there is at least a 10% chance that Juan Dixon stole his little bro's body for this game because Jermaine is lighting the stuff up out there.1:35 Forgot to mention, there are all sorts of recruits for the football squad hanging out here today. A few have come over, including QB Kolby Gray, who is not exactly an imposing figure, but at least he can't be any worse than Billy Stull right? I've got to say, Cam Saddler, if he doesn't recover from the torn ACL, has a serious future as a recruiter. He was encouraging the youngsters to come over to the Oakland Zoo and hang out with us and cheer and sign their name on the little white boards the Zoo guys bring along. Even the guys who haven't committed yet are over here basically saying their gonna be Panthers. This comes a year after Saddler helped us land his buddy Shayne Hale in an absolute coup. He just seems like a real cool guy. I wish I was good at football so he could recruit me.
2:05 Panthers win! 90-67 over the Johnnies, pulling away at the very end. Even Tiesi and Sean Brown make an appearance at the end of the game. Jermaine Dixon had a great game, as did Blair and Fieldsy. Sam I Am was okay, but it was obvious that the Storm game planned to keep him in check, so you've got to give him credit for that.
2:18 I finally get the heck out of the Pete. I mean I love that place and all, but it is freaking impossible to get out of there when a packed house attends a game and hardly anyone leaves early. I'm absolutely starving now, having overcoming my earlier nausea and nasty hangover. Time for a Wendy's run.
2:25 Turns out we weren't the only ones feeling some Wendy's. A minimum 15 consecutive people in front of us on the street turn in to Wendy's. I consider other alternatives, but I've already begun salivating over a Spicy Chicken sandwich and a chocolate frosty.
2:35 Mmmmm....Spicy Chicken...2:55 I'm finally back to my apartment with less than two hours until game time. I'm real tired all of a sudden. Thinking about a nap...
3:15 Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
4:15 Woken up yet again by that damn alarm. Better get another shower before the game starts.
4:30 Heading over to my buddy's house for the game. Luckily he only lives about 2 minutes away.
4:45 HERE WE GO STEELERS HERE WE GO! clap clap4:50 Crap! Phil Rivers drills Vinny Jackson for a touchdown. Jackson celebrates by pretending to walk a straight line, then falling off like he's drunk. Just kidding. But how funny would that have been? I'd be laughing even if the Bolts go on to win this thing 70-0. Anywho, the Bolts are off to a cookin' start, 7-0. Our D was having some serious struggles on that one. Bad news bears.
4:56 Steelers going for it on fourth down?!?! Really Mike Tomlin? One of my buddies, who is no Mike Tomlin fan, is quickly irritated and says Tomlin doesn't know how to coach in the playoffs. But Wait! Big Ben with the quick kick! My buddy quickly sits down and doesn't say anything more. That was a bold strategy Cotton, definitely paid off though, as its downed at the 9. Okay Mikey Thomlin, I'm with you on that one. I like the creativity, anyway. Plus, anything that keeps Mitch Berger off the field can't be all bad.
5:09 SANTONIO! Our beleaguered wide receiver HOUSES a punt return from the Mike "Jesus Christ" Scifres. All week long I heard people yelping about Scifres being the ultimate difference maker for the Bolts, including Bill Simmons' ludicrous picking of the Chargers because of Scifres, yet no one mentioned that booming kicks that don't land near the goal line too often out-kick their coverage, which is exactly what happened now. Suck on that Sports Guy.
5:49 The aforementioned friend who doesn't like Tomlin is borderline homicidal right now after a bizarre fake punt that was so bad it looked like it was drawn up by Matt Cavanugh. That's just a ridiculous decision there considering how wonderful our D has been since the opening drive. This game has turned into a field-position battle, and this isn't helping us.
5:58 Field Goal Nate Kaeding. This one's on you Mike Tomlin. You'd best more than make up for it as the game progresses.
6:07 Steelers run a spectacular 2 minute drill with Willie Parker scooting in to the end zone from 3 yards out. Hines Ward made the critical play on this drive on a deep ball from Giant Ben.6:14 We are at the half. 14-10 Stillers. The Yinzers are loving it. Ben is showing almost no ill effects of that concussion, and is doing an excellent job of not risking mistakes or getting hit. The key has been Willie being incredibly effective running the football. And of course, the D has really clamped down after an unusually lackluster opening drive effort. Should be a heck of a second half.
6:34 The Steelers absolutely dominate the opening drive, holding the ball for nearly 8 minutes to start the third quarter. Ben hits Heath for 8 yards for a score. That was old school, Bill Cowher era clock control. Nice mixture of runs and passes on the drive, with Heath being a popular target at thend of the drive. That was a statement drive. 21-10 Steelers.
6:41 After a long kick runback, the Chargers run exactly 1 (one) offensive play and it is... INTERCEPTED by Larry Foote, who apparently stole it from James Harrison on the ground. That was HUGE!
6:45 No Brain Norv spends his last challenge despite absolutely no evidence that the pick was even remotely in doubt.
6:46 AHHH! Ben just made me nearly soil myself throwing a crazy block on a Santonio Holmes end around. Listen, Ben, the extra couple yards gained by you throwing that block wasn't even remotely worth the injury risk. Thankfully he's okay. And by the way... it was a SICK block for what it's worth.
6:52 Holy friggin crap! Mitch Berger's punt smacks off the top of some Chargers doofus and is piicked up by William Gay and run into the end zone! Of course, you can't advance a muff in what is a truly strange rule, but still, the Steelers get the ball on what was basically a long offensive play downfield. Crazy day, eh? Ben knocking a punt inside the 10, Mitch Berger turning into an offensive weapon and Ryan Clark taking the snap on a punt. Just weird all around, but the Steelers have a chance to put this game almost on ice here.
7:01 Fourth and goal at the 6 inch line, and the play goes to... Carey Davis?!? He would have been my 8th guess. It goes mostly without saying this didn't work. The Bolts take over. Let's hope for some more Jimmy Harrison end zone magic.
7:08 The Steelers get the ball back with great field position and march down the field thanks to an Eric Weddle PI call. I think that was the same guy who Pele'd that punt to William Gay before. I think he may have money on the Steelers. Ball at the 1 and... Gary Russell into the end zone! Touchdown!
7:24 Chargers strike back for a touchdown, 28-17. This sucker isn't over yet folks. Hold on!
7:41 Okay NOW it's over. Slick Willie caps off a fantastic day by housing a 16 yard run. 35-17 Men of Steel. Okay, this puppy IS over.
7:58 Let's call it a day. 35-17 Steelers win. And with just 2 minutes to spare until the return of the one, the only, the immortal Jack Bauer!
8:00 Beep...Beep...Beep...BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP. (Nothing sends chills through my spine like the "24" clock).
Jack's Back! I'm not going to blog this because, well, it just means too much to me to be distracted. If you want a blog for 24, go here.
10:00 That was so good I think I might smoke a cigarette. Good night all.