1. Larry Fitzgerald vs. The Steelers Secondary Above all else, Fitzgerald is the reason that the Cardinals are in the Super Bowl this season. He has been basically unstoppable as he torched defense after defense during the playoffs. If the Cards are going to win this game it will be because of Larry's incredible abilities. So naturally, he is priority numero uno for the Steelers spectacular defense. I expect to see a fair amount of Ike Taylor going against Fitz, but even with the Steelers top corner shadowing Larry, I still think we'll see double coverage for much of the day. Also, the Steelers often go to something of a zone when they blitz heavy, as most teams do, but against Fitz, we've seen all postseason you absolutely, positively cannot go zone. It will be interesting to see how Dick LeBeau plays against this unbelievable talent.
2. Ben Roethlisberger vs. The Cardinals Pass Rush The Cards defense has really stepped up their game the past few weeks. Because of this, Big Ben is going to need to play mistake-free ball and neutralize their superb playmakers. Roethlisberger has been excellent at that for the past several games, but every Steeler fan has seen how nasty things can get when Ben starts struggling and trying to do too much. Roethlisberger is one of the most unique QB's in football and his way of fending off blitzers and keeping plays alive can alter games in both extremely positive and negative ways. Its probably a pretty fair bet that we will see at least instance of each in this game. Just how positive and negative those plays are will go a long toward determining this puppy. 3. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley vs. The Cardinals O-Line One of these days the refs may start calling more of the dozens of holdings of James Harrison that occur every single freaking game. It's absolutely insane the way he is blatantly held, and with the Cardinals mediocre tackles I expect that trend to continue, and if we even get one holding call our way I will be pleased. Even with the holding and the double teams Harrison often seems to rise to the occasion and there is certainly no bigger occasion that this one. I have a hard time imagining him not producing at least a couple big time plays.
4. Dick LeBeau and Mike Tomlin vs. Ken Whisenhunt and Todd Haley This is sort of a poetic type matchup. Tomlin, of course, is a defensive coach and the best coach on his staff is the defensive coordinator. Whiz, as we all know, is an offensive master and his top lieutenant is the very promising Haley. And not coincidentally, these are the top units for the respective squads. As we always saw in the Burgh, Whiz loves to throw out trick plays in big games, and I fully expect to see something crazy in this game. How LeBeau and company handle any gadgers will be a key to success for both squads. And all this is even without discussing the incredibly intimate knowledge that Whiz and LeBeau have of each other's schemes. It's safe to say that's going to be a huge factor, too.
5. Kurt Warner vs. Troy Polamalu On one side we have one of the most experienced, most intelligent, and right now, one of the best quarterbacks in football. On the other hand there is the most disruptive defender in football who doubles as quite possibly the single most athletic player in the league as well. Should be a truly fascinating matchup. Warner is one of the few QB's who might (and I stress might) be able to neutralize or maybe even take advantage of Polamalu's play. I certainly don't think that Troy will be able to wreak havoc all day long, but the key will be whether or not he's able to make a few monster plays (like the INT or the 4th down line jump against Baltimore) that alter this game.
As promised, some thoughts and links from what was essentially a no-holds-barred, steel cage match last night on the frozen tundra of Heinz Field.
Some Links: -ESPN is doing an all-day chat thing over at their site. Not worth reading up on all the different parts of the chat, as it would take all day, but it's worth it if you have a few interesting questions you'd like the "experts" at the WWL to answer.
-The Professor, John Clayton, puts together the big questions of this Super Bowl for right now. As always, its good stuff by Clayton.
-James Walker tells the critics of Ben Roethlisberger to shut their collective yaps. And yes, that includes the many yinzers who spent large portions of this season screaming at him to get rid of the ball. Does he drive people (including myself) crazy at times? Absolutely. But this is who he is, and the best one-word description of him as a football player is: Winner. And that's fine by me. Peyton and Tom can have their records, I'll take Roethlisberger any day of the week.
-Peter King's MMQB, a must-read no matter what football team you like, spends a good deal of the column discussing the Steelers-Ravens game.
-As always, Mondesi's House does a great job breaking down the game.
-Gene Collier writes about Heinz Field no longer be an AFC Championship curse. This had definitely gone through my mind more than once before the game, but it's a different situation with our new coach, Mike Tomlin, I suppose. Ron Cook says that, despite the stats that claim otherwise, the title of best defense in football was on the line last night, and the Steelers proved once and for all they are the best D in the league.
Random Thoughts -I don't think I have ever seen a more physical game with players who just no regard whatsoever for their own personal well-being. Just ridiculous. Thank god they give the teams a bye week before the Super Bowl, because there is no way this Steeler team would be ready if they had to play again in six days. I mean, Ryan Clark's entire body probably feels like he was in a severe traffic accident yesterday, Hines Ward probably can't do much more than jog, Mewelde Moore is iffy and anything that hurts his quickness pretty much negates any value he has, the offensive and defensive lines were hitting all day long, and of course, Ben Roethlisberger took his usual lumps, including what I thought was a definite late hit from Haruki Nakamura that I couldn't believe wasn't flagged.
-I liked that Bruce Arians tried very hard to establish the run early on, but I thought that he stuck to it a little too long. Parker was unable to get anything going against that stout Baltimore defense, and I think we would have been better served giving Mewelde a few more snaps early in the game and sending a few short passes his way. Worst case they are equally as effective, getting 2 or 3 yards a pop, and best case Mewelde catches one in some space and is able to make a play or two.
-Ben Roethlisberger just does it. That's all there is too it. He wins games, he plays smart when he has to, and he's going to his second Super Bowl with a 7-2 playoff record at the age of 26. Just an amazing job yet again by our franchise QB. Right now, I'd take him ahead of any QB in football, and I really mean that. Think about it: Who knows what is going to happen with Tom Brady's knee? He may never be the same. Peyton Manning came on real strong at the end of the season, but Ben has already had much more postseason success than Manning and doesn't require 30+ passes per game to get in a rhythm at the end of a game like Peyton. Phillip Rivers put together a great season, but has leadership and character issues and his game record pales in comparison. Eli looked a little too much like the old Eli down the stretch, and I'm still not sold on him. Kurt Warner, in my opinion, has been the beneficiary of having two of the best receiving corps in recent NFL history at his disposal with the current Zona group and the Greatest Show on Turf group with the Rams. Plus, he's old. Drew Brees can sling it as well as anyone, but I can't take him seriously until he picks up a few January W's. He can keep his 5000 yard, video-game offense season, thanks but no thanks. -Troy Polamalu vs. Ed Reed just got a whole lot more interesting. I know I said yesterday that I thought Reed was ahead of Polamalu as a safety and was one of the best in league history, but I found myself now thinking I may have underestimated our spectacular number 43. Polamalu was the best player on the field yesterday, while Reed pretty much disappeared for large chunks of the game. I guess that might have something to do with the play of the respective QB's, but I think this debate is very much alive and well.
-I don't know that I've ever seen a game quite like the one Limas Sweed had yesterday. Sweed, of course, was headed for infamy after dropping a sure-fire TD that Roethlisberger delivered precisely into his hands. He did end up hauling in a pair of passes by the end, and didn't make anymore awful mistakes. He also leveled a Hines Ward-esque block on unsuspecting Corey Ivy, knocking him clear into next week. Just a weird game for him, and I pray that Hines Ward is 100% healthy and that Limas doesn't have to set foot on the field against Arizona.
-Dick LeBeau continues to prove he's the best defensive coordinator in all of football. All we heard in the first two rounds and all through the regular season was that Joe Flacco was Joe Cool, that he was unflappable, and made plays in the biggest moments because you couldn't get into his head. Yeaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh so much for that thought process, eh? Flacco was definitely flappable yesterday and LeBeau flapped him again and again. Big sacks, two bad interceptions, the last one pretty much sealing the game for the Steelers. Don't get me wrong, I like Flacco a lot and think he could definitely develop into Roethlisberger Lite and be a very good QB in the NFL, but somehow everyone forgot that he didn't do anything against the Steelers in the regular season and is still a rookie QB in the playoffs. And LeBeau knew just how to rattle his cage.
-That said, I will be VERY interested to see LeBeau's game plan against the Cardinals and Kurt Warner. Warner is notoriously great at taking advantage of blitzing teams and getting the ball out in a hurry. That's not to say that I think LeBeau will abandon the blitz, as that would never happen in a billion years, but I do think some of the more exotic schemes, like bringing Polamalu and Timmons may be put on hold.
-I'm happy for the Cards and for Ken Whiz, Russ Grimm, Larry Fitz, and Gerry Hayes, but for the next 13 days, they are public enemy number 1 in my book. My old Larry Fitzgerald Pitt jersey? It's been removed from my closet where it sat next to the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, Sidney Crosby, and Willie Stargell and shoved underneath my bed where it won't see the light of day again until February 2nd. -Too many Super Bowls lately have come down to last minute scoring drives, and after watching Jeff Reed yesterday at the Heinz Field tundra, I have the fullest confidence in him to have a big game if necessary in Super Bowl XLIII.
-I was pleased, shocked, elated, and surprised to see the refs call a holding call yesterday in favor of James Harrison. Of course, he was held a minimum 15-20 times yesterday and only one was called, but at least its a start.
-Another nice day for the Steelers' secondary yesterday. Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden, Deshea Townsend, and William Gay played extremely well from their cornerback spots, and I think it mostly goes without saying that Polamalu, Clark, and Ty Carter did a super job at safety. Just a great performance all around. And that is huge for the Steelers because the Cardinals offense will revolve around Larry Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner. If the Steelers can contain Fitz (there is no stopping the guy) the Cards offense is not going to be able to hang in the game.
-People have been talking a lot about the Whisenhunt connection and how it gives him an advantage because of how well he knows the Steelers personnel and all... but do you really think that doesn't go the other way, too? Mike Tomlin may not know Whiz, but Dick LeBeau worked against Whisenhunt's offense in practice countless times and, as Whisenhunt openly admits, LeBeau more than once helped him adjust to defensive schemes. Do we really think LeBeau doesn't know every wrinkle of Whiz's offense. And do we really think the Steelers aren't fully aware of countless Whisenhunt gadget plays. I see this intimate knowledge being a wash in the end.
-The Steelers O-Line had some issues with Baltimore pass rush and did take some penalties (looking squarely at Chris Kemoeautu and his incredibly stupid personal foul), but they handled that Ravens rush pretty darn well I thought. Sure they couldn't open up holes for an ant to even run through, but no one can do that against the Ravens. You can't blame them too much for that, and they managed to buy Ben at least some time. And the Cardinals D, however well they may be playing right now, is no Ravens squad.
-I expect to see another crowd heavy in Steelers support down in Tampa Bay. Florida has so many transplants or retirees from Pittsburgh it's downright absurd. This might be even more Steeler heavy than the Detroit Super Bowl XL crowd of 3 years ago. And considering the game is against the Cardinals, who probably have one of the least-established fan bases in the sport, and we could be looking at like a 85/15 or 90/10 split for this puppy. Tampa Bay will be turned into Terrible Towel city. Should be exciting.
First, some links in this super-duper Preview of the AFC Championship edition on TRS. -LaMarr Woodley breakout game and the weeks leading up to it are chronicled tongue-in-cheek by James Walker. I mean he wasn't really over-eating and depressed as Troy claims. I did chuckle a little when I read the line about James Harrison constantly being double-teamed. James Walker, if by "double-teamed" you mean being held by two guys at once, then I agree.
-Unfortunately Bill Simmons picked the Steelers in his weekly gambling picks column. Bad news considering the Sports Guy went 0-4 last week on his picks and openly admits that his prediction is a kiss of death.
-An update on the Ravens injury report. Samari Rolle is apparently out for the AFC Championship and Terrell Suggs figures to be a game-time decision. I have a VERY hard time believing that Suggs won't play at all in this one. even if its just as a third down pass rusher or something like that, I think Suggs finds his way onto the field.
-Ron Cook is apparently in love with Ed Reed. Reed truely is probably the most disruptive defensive player in football these days, followed closely by our own Troy Polamalu. But I agree with Cookie, Troy is number two on that list, and there's not a ton of room for debate there. I'm not gonna lie, with Ben's penchant for taking chances downfield, Ed Reed scares the bejeezus out of me for the game tomorrow. And Gene Collier pretty much backs that up in his article about the game as well.
-In an interesting piece, Mike Smith, the Falcons Head Coach and reigning NFL Coach of the Year, breaks down the two league title games. He gives some interesting insights into both squads, but also points out some of the obvious, like Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco similarities.-The always superb Peter King makes his pick for the AFC Championship game, as well as making some points about the game worth reading. King thinks the biggest difference in this game is going to be the injuries for the Ravens. I tend to agree.
-5 subplots for Ravens-Steelers. I think someone really needs to explore the similarities between Flacco and Roethlisberger. That hasn't been covered nearly enough.
-The Baltimore Sun profiles the divider line between Steeler Nation and Ravens country. I always think Nation sounds bigger than country, especially when it's all capitalized like that.
-The Sun also put together a comprehensive list of who different media outlets are picking to win the game. I really don't like when the vast majority of experts pick the Steelers. The obvious game rarely goes the way its supposed to.
-David Steele of the Baltimore Sun predicts that Steelers-Rvens is about to become the pre-eminent rivalry in football and that these two teams are set up to have incredible success for the forseeable future. I hope he's right, as Steelers-Birdies is never dull.
-John Harris and Mike Prisuta's column from the Trib. As always if you only have time for one, make it Prisuta. He is probably the most underrated writer in the Burgh. Prisuta is right when he urges the Steelers not to take unnecessary chances and tk "keep it simple" as he says. He urges the Steelers not to make the first mistake, and when the Ravens make a mistake, be sure to pounce on it. He's exactly right. The one thing that could swing this game to the Ravens, as I've already said, is turnovers and mistakes. They feed off that energy and that momentum and will bury the Steelers with it if they can.
-From the Steelers Today Blog, the Ravens are, in fact, hypocrtical about Hines Ward. I fully agree with this thought. Hines is a Raven-type player through and through. They'd love to have him I'm sure.
-From the Steel Curtain Rising Blog, another fan is equally as pissed about the ridiculous amount of holding of James Harrison that NEVER gets called, only instead of bad-mouthing NFL officials and calling them names not fit for print, this writer got a bit more creative and spun it in a humorous way.
-A weird, and mostly unprofessional list of reasons for Ravens fans to hate Steelers fans. Each one is about 3 paragraphs long, at most, which leads me to believe that the writer A) Has very little material, B) Is Lazy, or C) Is Barely Literate. Actually, I'm thinking he may have the trifecta. Why don't you goofy newspapers leave the trash-talking where it belongs: on the Blogs. I mean it's not like these are even good trash-talking points on Pittsburgh. I mean, "Weird Bridges"? Really? You can't figure out why we have 446 bridges? I don't suppose its because we have three rivers in the city is it? Maybe we should just have one insanely long bridge that is constantly congested, is that how Baltimorons (I doubt that's the name for people that live there, but its probably close) prefer it? I'd rather have hundreds upon hundred of bridges with little traffic on most than the other way around. Thanks. Glad you aren't a city planner. And you are complaining about the Fort Pitt Tunnel being a claustrophobic's nightmare? I suppose we should just ignore the fact that the Baltimore Harbour tunnel is more than twice the length of the Fort Pitt and is UNDER WATER!!!! I imagine claustrophobes have quite the issue with that, thank you very much. But then again, you're just a newspaper writer, what do you have to worry about facts for? Yet another example of the dwindling respect level in papers. (END RANT)
-Halfway down this page, the excellent Mike Lombardi gives some insight on Steelers-Ravens. Its interesting the Ravens have not won the time of possession battle in either playoff game. Also interesting that the Steelers have never lost a playoff game when Fast Willie is the starter (5-0). I hadn't thought of that.
Okay well that's enough of that, let's get to the breakdown. 5 Key Matchups
1. Ben Roethlisberger vs. Ed Reed In case you skimmed through the above (and I don't blame you if you did), one of my key points was the work of the mighty Ed Reed. Reed can turn this game all by himself with one mistake by Roethlisberger. And with Ben's love of the downfield pass, that gravely concerns me. What we need to see is the Big Ben we saw in Round 2 who took great care of the ball, was quick to get rid of it, and any downfield chance he took was smart and had very low risk. Reed is as big of a gamebreaker as there is in football today, and probably has just as good a chance at scoring as the entire Ravens offense. 2. James Harrison vs. Joe Flacco Some of Harrison's biggest games of his career have come against Baltimore, including that monster game a year ago when that catapulted him into a household name. Expect Dick LeBeau to unleash Harrison yet again and use him to try and rattle the seemingly unflappable young QB. As usual, expect Harrison to be illegally held every time he blitzes, and as usual I'm sure the refs will swallow their whistles whole.
3. Willie Parker vs. Ray Lewis Obviously the matchup goes a lot deeper than this, but it's flashy symbolism for the Steelers desire to establish the run and the Ravens excellent run defense. Parker was superb last week, and I imagine Bruce Arians will do his best to try to get Parker going yet again in the early going of this one. And for that I wish him best of luck, because I can't imagine Ray-Ray and his crew letting up many yards, but if Willie shows that same burst I expect he'll be able to at least break off a few big gains even if he can't consistently pick up the yards.
4. Ravens Blitzes vs. Steelers pass protection The Steelers O-Line was yet another pleasant surprise we got in Round 2, and if the Steelers are to win this game, they need to play well again. Expect Suggs, Scott, and Ngata to do their best to overpower and overwhem the much-maligned Steelers O-line. Max Starks has continued his fine work on the left side, but the rest of the line played very well last week as well, with the exception of the still-struggling Darnell Stapleton. Chris Kemoeautu was especially good last week as a pulling guard.
5. Dick LeBeau vs. Cam Cameron Two of the very best coordinators in the game square off in what should be a very interesting matchup. I still think Cameron got a terribly raw deal last year in Miami and never had a shot to succeed. Still, he has been excellent handling Flacco this year and putting together great game plans for him to succeed. LeBeau meanwhile is one of the best defensive coordinators the NFL has ever seen and is known far and wide for his spectacular blitz packages that can confuse any QB, let alone a rookie.
Other Random Thoughts -Something tells me that Hines Ward has a huge game in this one. We all know how well Hines and the Ravens get along. And we also know how Hines thrives in his role as an antagonist. He lives for games and moments like this one. He also has become one of the game's pre-eminent third down threats, and given the stingy Ravens D, I expect that third down situations will be a key to success for both squads.
-The Ravens injuries are going to play a factor in this, but I think the Samari Rolle injury is the one that hurts them the most. Rolle is a very good corner, certainly much better than his replacement, Frank Walker. With Santonio Holmes playing very well and Nate Washington turning into a legit downfield threat, having to play guys like Walker and Corey Ivy more than they otherwise would is going to end up biting the Ravens in the ass.
-I haven't watched enough Ravens games to know this intimately, but I'll be interested to see how Joe Flacco reacts to Troy Polamalu's pre-snap shifts. More experienced QBs typically audible or at least bluff audibling when they see Polamalu settle in somewhere, but I don't know if Flacco will do that, as I'm sure Cameron will have at least partially accounted for this and may not want Flacco overruling him on the field.
-I know he's been around for ages and can't possibly have a ton left in the tank, but I never like facing Derrick Mason. He's like Hines Ward without the ferocious hitting, and always seems to come up big against the Steelers.
-I'm not sorry to see Le'Ron McClain banged up. I figure Willis McGahee and (if he plays) Ray Rice will be mostly ineffective, although McGahee has had some moments against the Steelers D. What I don't want to see is a hungry, bruising runner like McClain barrelling through the middle of our D for 3 and 4 yards a pop. I don't know how effective we'd be at stopping him on a cold, bitter day like tomorrow.
-I'd like to see LaMarr Woodley build on that big game of a week ago. If James Harrison is getting doubleheld blocked by the Ravens, Woodley should be in single coverage and should be able to make the most of his opportunities to get to Flacco. I'd also like to see LeBeau deploy the unbelievably fast Lawrence Timmons get more snaps in place of Larry Foote. Sure Foote is the more stable and more sound player, but Timmons can make incredible plays happen, and can bring superb pressure from the middle of the field, as well as more than capably run with the likes of Todd Heap.
The Pick: Steelers 20 Ravens 13 This is going to be a ridiculously physical and violent game and surely won't be for the faint of heart. i expect the Ravens to do their best to try to set the tone early on with their physicality on defense. I think they also have a fair amount of success shutting down Willie Parker in the run game. But the Steelers will be persistent in setting up the ground game, even if it means a few early punts. Setting up even a mediocre rushing attack will enable Ben to test the Ravens corners downfield, and I think Santonio has another big scoring play, this time on a long pass from Roethlisberger that not even the great Ed Reed can stop. As for the Ravens offense, I think Flacco gets hit early and often but does his best to avoid taking big loss sacks and making costly mistakes. I think eventually, though, he is forced into a turnover or two and the Steelers capitalize.
The playoffs officially kick off for our beloved Steelers tomorrow at 4:45 at Heinz Field against the late-charging San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are among the hottest teams in football these days, and though I didn't believe in the Chargers for much of the season, I officially became worried about them last week when they knocked off the Colts. What follows is a breakdown of the key matchups in the rematch of the first 11-10 game in NFL history (even though it wasn't really 11-10):The Chargers Offensive Line vs. Dick LeBeau's blitz schemes The Chargers offensive line put together a nice season this year against blitzing defenses, giving up just 25 sacks all year while guarding the mostly stationary Phillip Rivers. To his credit, Rivers has become quite good at quickly getting rid of the ball while under pressure and not doing the Ben Roethlisberger thing where he puts himself in more danger. In the game earlier this game, the Chargers gave up just 2 sacks to the Steelers line, but Rivers was under consistent pressure. Also, one of those sacks went for a safety for the Steelers. Expect Dick LeBeau to turn up the heat very early on with James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley coming consistently from the outside, and using speed demons like Troy Polamalu and Lawrence Timmons to try to bring pressure from different angles. If the Steelers are able to get after Rivers, it will go a long way toward knocking the Chargers QB out of a rhythm. Phillip Rivers vs. Troy Polamalu Expect Troy to be in all his shifting, pre-snap movement glory in this one, doing his best to confuse and confound Phil Rivers and the Chargers offense. Few players in the NFL can wreak as much havoc or getting in someone's head as much as Polamalu. To Rivers' credit, though, he was very, very good this season, and became a better QB than I ever thought he could really be. How Rivers makes adjustments to Polamalu and how he runs the Chargers offense with Troy quarterbacking the D will be of the utmost importance to this game.
Darren Sproles vs. The Steelers Tacklers Expect Sproles to get the ball in a variety of ways, returning kicks, catching passes in the flat, screen passes, shovel passes, and of course just good old fashioned handoffs. How the Steelers contain this guy will be worth watching. He is your typical scat back type player, and no matter what kind of defense you are, these guys can hurt you at any time. I expect Sproles to be held mostly in check, especially when he's running the ball, but I'm also worried about the possibility of him springing 1 or 2 big plays that could end up sinking the Steelers. The Steelers typically do a spectacular job of containing dangerous players like Sproles, but after watching him last week against the Colts, I think he might be one of the most dangerous players the Steelers have faced all season, and given LT's struggles against the Steelers, his groin injury may be the best thing to ever happen to the Chargers.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. His Concussion There's no question that one of the ultimate X factors in this game is the status of Ben Roethlisberger after suffering a concussion in Week 17. The history of QB's coming back from concussions after just a couple weeks is...well let's just say it's none too encouraging. Especially when this is the third concussion of their career, as it is with Large Benjamin. Keep a close eye on Roethlisberger's play early on to get an idea of how he is responding to the after effects of the concussion.Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers O-Line vs. The Chargers pass rush Ben is legendary for his insistence on not throwing the pass away and keeping plays alive. Unfortunately, this often leads to too many sacks, some nasty hits on Ben, and the occassional interception. For the Steelers to win this game, we can't have any big mistakes by Roethlisberger, and given the severity of his concussion, let's hope he's also quick to throw the ball away if he is under pressure to avoid any unnecessary hits. As for the O-Line, they have come under serious fire this season, and will need to really step it up in this game and in any other playoff games the Steelers are in this year if this team is going to have any chance to make a Super Bowl run. The team's best offensive lineman this year has been far and away Max Starks, which speaks for just how weird and disappointing a season it has been considering Starks wasn't even a starter at the season's beginining.
Willie Parker vs. The Chargers Front 7 In their game earlier this season, Parker had one of his best games of the season. With Ben likely to not be operating at 100%, the Steelers would be much better off if Parker can put together another productive day.
The Kickers vs. Heinz Field The toughest place to kick in the entire NFL figures to be at the height of its power Sunday afternoon in the frigid January weather with the howling Ohio River wind. Jeff Reed has been solid this season, and has just about mastered the ability to kick in these sorts of nasty conditions. This could be a tremendous advantage for Pittsburgh as Reed, with Adam Vinatieri now kicking indoors most weeks, has become probably the best cold-weather kicker in the NFL. San Diego has a very good kicker of their own in Nate Kaeding, but he did miss a field goal at Heinz earlier this season.
Mike Scifres vs. Mitch Berger Probably the matchup that terrifies me the most. After one of the greatest days you will ever see a punter have last week against Indy, Scifres gives the Chargers defense a tremendous weapon that could just about level the playing field between the two defensive squads. Let's hope the Heinz Field wind somehow neutralizes Scifres and that Berger can at least be competent for the Steelers.The Pick: I can't imagine this one being a high-scoring affair. Both defenses figure to keep the opposing offenses in check for much of the game. And this is only helped by game-time conditions that are expected to be at 25 degrees with winds of 10+ MPH. I think the two squads keep it close for much of the game, and in a season full of them already, I think Ben Roethlisberger, concussion and all, leads the Steelers on a late drive for the win. Steelers 17-14.
1. Larry Fitzgerald vs. The Steelers Secondary
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