Player Profile 5: Zach Duke

This is part 5 of roughly 38 that will cover the different players who I think could potentially make the Bucs' Opening Day Roster and what kind of season I expect from them at the major league level. Today we will be covering our first starting pitcher in this random process, Zach Duke. If you want to check out past editions, click here and enjoy. Let's get to it:
Player: Zach Duke
Position: Starting Pitcher
Once upon a time, Zach Duke was viewed as a downright dangerous young lefty and a future anchor of the rotation. That was back in 05 when he had that amazing 8-2 run in the first 14 starts of his big-league career. He also posted a 1.81 ERA and a WHIP of 1.205. It was a spectacular start and we thought we had ourselves a future ace.

Unfortunately it has been downhill ever since. Duke has been hit very, very hard the past three seasons. He gave up the most hits in the NL in 06 and the second most last season. What is encouraging is that, unlike numerous other young Pirate pitchers, Duke has shown the ability to be a workhorse, even if he too often gets hammered, at least he appears healthy and capable of throwing lots of innings and pitches.

Many still see significant upside in Duke. Obviously he is no longer viewed by most as having top-of-the-rotation type stuff. But if he just develop some consistency to his game it would be a big step toward righting his big-league career. It will be very interesting to see how Joe Kerrigan does with Duke this season. Kerrigan has had a lot of success as a pitching coach over his long career, but the enigmatic Duke figures to be a tough test even for someone like Kerrigan. I think this is a big year for Duke. If he continues to get hit more than just about anyone, its likely the Pirates will lose interest in keeping him around any longer given the increased salary.

However, what is encouraging is that for the last 3 years, Duke's BABIP (Opposing Hitters batting average on Balls Hit In Play) has been higher than average. Typically, I think a pitcher is expected to have a BABIP of around .300 or maybe a shade higher. The idea behind this stat is that pitchers typically have little control over their BABIP, so if a pitcher has a high BABIP it means his numbers (like ERA and WHIP) are probably worse than they should be, or if he has an especially low BABIP it means his other numbers should be better. Duke's has been .336, .374 (!), and .324 the last three seasons. Ideally, this would mean that Duke should be expected to regress back toward the expected mean one of these years, which could mean several less hits over the course of a season and then several less runs as well. However, its also unusual to see a pitcher with 3 straight seasons like that, so maybe it really is just that Duke is typically going to be an aberration because he tends to give up some very, very hard-hit balls.

Lastly it's been strange to see the decline in Duke's K numbers the past couple years. We knew he was never going to be Randy Johnson or anything, but as a rookie he had 6.17 K/9 IP and followed that up with a somewhat predictable decline to 4.89 K/9 IP. That's obviously a pretty damn low number, but it surprisingly has gone even further downhill since. It was an almost embarassing 3.44 K/9 IP in 07 and was just 4.23 K/9 IP last year. Those numbers are really, really low. Only one pitcher in the NL last year threw as many pitches as Duke and had a lower K/9 IP ratio. Although, that pitcher was Aaron Cook, who did have an excellent season, so I guess it isn't the end of the world to see such low numbers. Still, you'd prefer they were at least a touch higher.

Duke appears to have somehow been all but assured a spot somewhere in the Opening Day Rotation despite there being a supposed competition for all the spots except Paul Maholm's ace role. I'm not sure I'd have made that assurance, but he at least can eat innings for you if nothing else.

Predicted 2009 Stats: 28 GS 7-12 Record 168 IP 4.66 ERA 1.494 WHIP 83 K
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being On The Opening Day Roster: 95%
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being In The Opening Day Lineup: 0%
On Deck: Sean Burnett

Player Profile 4: Eric Hinske

We now move onto our fourth Pirate Pre-season Preview Player Profile, and today we will look at one of the Pirates’ numerous highly celebrated (just kidding) off-season acquisitions, Mr. Eric Hinske. If you want to take a look at the previous editions of the Quintuple P, click here. I also have previously posted about Hinske's chances of being the Opening Day Left Fielder and his competition, so check that out, too.
Player: Eric Hinske
Position: 1B/3B/LF/RF
Hinske will take over the role occupied last season by the almost unbelievably popular Dirty Doug Mientkiewicz. I doubt Hinske will match Dirty Doug’s popularity, and it’s probably 50/50 whether or not he’ll match his overall productivity at the plate, either. What Hinske does provide though is a power stroke that just might be the second best on the entire roster behind Ryan Doumit (sad, I know). I hope Adam LaRoche and maybe even Brandon Moss prove me wrong, but until LaRoche stops doing his impersonation of a corpse for the first 2 months of the season and Moss shows he can hit off that gimpy knee, I stand by my statement about Hinske. The drawback for him, though, is that he has had some issues with keeping even a mediocre batting average and strikes out a fair amount.

Because of the Pirates’ expected commitment to giving young Andy LaRoche plenty of chances at third base, Hinske’s primary position, and big brother Adam LaRoche’s mostly entrenched status at first base, Hinske’s secondary position, it figures if Eric is going to see playing time it will be mostly in the outfield. Left Field figures to be without question the top spot for him to get some at-bats and some starts. The opening day slot for this position is still open, and I feel that Hinske is the guy who SHOULD win the job given his credentials and his positives compared to Nyjer Morgan, his main competitor. I'm skeptical as to how that will actually play out, though. Hinske’s chances to roam left field this season, especially later in the season, will also be at least partially determined by how young Andrew McCutchen fares in AAA Indianapolis. Despite the status of the brothers LaRoche, I think Hinske definitely sees some at-bats at those spots, too, and those numbers could pile up if either experiences their trademark inconsistencies. The status of Brandon Moss’ surgically repaired knee will be worth keeping an eye on and I won’t be surprised to see him need some days off when the Pirates play several days in a row or day games after night games.

Predicted 2009 Stats: 325 AB .255 AB 14 HR .340 OBP .433 SLG 47 RBI 51 R 7 SB
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being on the Opening Day Roster: 100%
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being in the Opening Day Lineup: 45%
On Deck: Zach Duke

Player Profile 3: Matt Capps

In part three of our Quintuple P (Pre-season Pirate Preview Player Profiles), we take a look at our first pitcher, our young closer, Matt Capps. For the previous parts, click here. Alright let's get to it:
Player: Matt Capps
Position: Closer
The Mad Capper enters his fourth full season facing a few questions. For one, there were trade rumors for much of last season that likely only subsided because he got hurt. I don't expect those rumors to subside anytime soon, especially if he starts out pitching like he did in 2007 when he had a very underrated season that had to be among the best 5 relievers in the NL that year. In addition, he reportedly has turned up at camp looking like he's in better shape. It will be interesting to see how that factors in. And lastly, when a crappy team has a very good closer, his role is always a little weird/ awkward. I mean if you only win 70 games and I'd guess 15 or so of those wins aren't save opportunities, you have maybe a few extra-inning wins, and a few comeback wins. So you likely have less than 50 games where a defined "closer" is needed. When a pitcher is as good as Capps you have to find other ways to get him into the game. I'd be more than in favor of using him on occasion in 7th/ 8th inning roles in tight games when we're down by a run. That'd be ideal to try to keep the team in those games instead of rolling out one of the other mediocre relievers.

It also kind of takes you aback when you realize he is just 25 years old. He has quietly been one of the best relievers in the NL the past several seasons. He has shown the all-important rubber arm trait, often pitching on back-to-back days on numerous occasions the past three seasons, and appearing in 85 and 76 games in 06 and 07.

Predicted 2009 Stats: 72 G 76.3 IP 37 Sv 3.37 ERA 1.097 WHIP 54 K 4-5 Record
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being on the Opening Day Roster: 100%
On Deck: Eric Hinske

Player Profile 2: Andy LaRoche

In Part 2 of the Pre-season Pirate Preview Player Profiles, (that's right the PPPPP) I figured it would be smart to at least keep up with the semi-interesting players, and few figure to be more interesting and more closely watched this coming season than young Andy LaRoche.

The younger LaRoche was one of the central pieces of the Jason Bay trade last season but was truly awful in his two month stint with the Pirates. In 164 at-bats after the trade, he hit just .152/.227/.232. Those numbers are almost incomprehensibly terrible.

However, LaRoche will be given every opportunity to establish himself again this year and would probably have to not have a hit all spring training to lose his starting job. The upside is there with LaRoche, as he was long considered one of the better prospects in the Dodgers system, he just never got a fair chance there. Either the Dodgers just never found a way to work him in, or they saw something that made them doubt his lofty status. let's hope its not the latter. So, let's get to the profile:Name: Andy LaRoche
Position: Third Base
One of the potential reasons for the terrible season by LaRoche is a wrist injury that he played through. That is believed to be corrected now, and he should be able to hit and play pain-free. I suppose I can buy that. To me it seems as though too many respected people in baseball have faith in LaRoche for him to be this bad. I'm not sure how high the ceiling is here, but I don't see anyway he doesn't get a lot better this season.

It's also worth considering that he is also just 25 years old. Many, many players don't figure it out until around this age, and LaRoche could certainly fall into that category. There was also a fair amount of pressure on him last season, as he was the most visible everyday person from the Bay trade and his slow start could have just snowballed on him. That kind of pressure shouldn't be there at all this season. LaRoche likely will bat 7th in the Opening Day Lineup, a spot that should enable him to take some early pressure-free at-bats. If he's anything like his big bro, we need him to get off to at least a decent start, to avoid another snowball effect.

Perhaps almost as surprising as last season's hitting woes were the fielding issues LaRoche had. He committed 9 errors in 45 games at the hot corner, and the Range Factor stats weren't exactly impressive, either. His pedigree is as an above-average fielder, and I think that he should come around if the hitting is there to give him confidence. These LaRoches, for whatever reason, are a shaky bunch mentally.

Predicted 2009 Stats: 472 AB .256 BA 15 HR .345 OBP .425 SLG 63 RBI 68 R
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being on the Opening Day Roster: 100%
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being in the Opening Day Lineup: 95%
On Deck: Matt Capps

Pirates Player Profile 1: Ryan Doumit

Can you feel the excitement? Opening Day is just 48 days away for the Buccos! With that in mind, and with spring training kicking into gear I wanted to get my season previews for the Pirates going. The way I figure it there are about 38 players who can make the roster, and so I figured I would piece together a player profile for each one of them. For those of you non-mathematicians out there, that amounts to a little less than 1 per day. And since I'm a pretty unreliable person, I figure I'd better get this going immediately. I'll try to do one just about every day. I'll probably do two or even three some days and zero other days. Stop by to see what's happening.

We'll start this preview off with a notable player in the form of Ryan Doumit, as I doubt a Brian Bixler preview will get much traffic my way. I'm going to be doing these predictions in a completely and totally random order. And consider this profile to be a template for future profiles.Player: Ryan Doumit
Position: Catcher
Doumit is coming off of a big-time breakout season for the Pirates. He even earned himself a hefty raise and contract extension this offseason from the upper brass. Many expect Doumit to turn into a real clubhouse leader for the Buccos this season as he showed definite signs of that last season, even earning the high praise of the immortal Doug Mientkiewicz.

One of the biggest plusses for Doumit and for the Pirates is that he provides the team with power and all-around hitting prowess at a position that is very scarce in these traits league-wide. Doumit has the chance to turn into one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball and a perennial all-star. He will be 28 shortly before Opening Day and figures to have a fair amount of room still to grow due to not having played many full seasons over the past several years. 20-25 home runs, a .320 BA, and 100 RBI are not out of the question, especially if he hits in the 3/4 slot all year, as is expected.

However, he is not perfect either. The defense is still a work in progress. There were definite signs of improvement from him last year, but I wouldn't go calling him Pudge Rodriguez just yet. The other knock on him are the numerous health concerns. He's had more than a few injuries, and was temporarily knocked behind Ronny Paulino on the organizational depth chart because of these. Even last season, Doumit missed a bit of time. Obviously, no catcher is ever going to be back there for 162 games a year, but Doumit's 116 of a year ago is a little low. Ideally, you'd like to see him behind the plate a minimum 130 games. If he can stay healthy for all of 2009, even if the D is only mediocre, it would be the final step toward him becoming a top-notch catcher.

Predicted 2009 Stats: 490 AB .303 BA 19 HR .350 OBP .483 SLG 82 RBI 74 R
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being on the Opening Day Roster: 100%
Assuming Full Health, Chance of Being in the Opening Day Lineup: 100%
On Deck: Andy LaRoche