What Will The 09/10 Panthers Look Like?

I'm definitely still too depressed to write about this year's current version of the Pitt Hoops team. I just tried to, and while I made it further than my last attempt, it was still nowhere near ready to be posted. I promise, some time in the next couple days I'll finally get to it.

Instead, I thought I'd try a little self-therapy by looking at just how next fall's Pitt Panther lineup will look. I must say, it helped a little bit to think about next year and how unique of a year it could be.

Also, I examined next season's roster under two different scenarios: With DeJuan Blair in the middle and without him. I have a feeling that the latter is the more likely scenario, personally.

2009/10 Panthers With DeJuan Blair
Rotation
1 Ashton Gibbs
2 Jermaine Dixon
3 Gilbert Brown
4 Dante Taylor
5 DeJuan Blair
6 Brad Wanamaker
7 Travon Woodall
8 Gary McGhee
9 Nasir Robinson
10 J.J. Richardson
11 Lamar Patterson
12 Talib Zanna

Random Thoughts:
-There will be no true point guard on this team. Gibbs can be a serviceable point guard, but Tra Woodall is hyped up to be a good ball handler and figures to see some minutes at the point with Gibbs sometimes shifting to the 2. I'd liken Gibbs' role next year to what Ronald Ramon once did. Right now he is a 1.5 guard, serviceable at both but not yet superb at either. Still, I think he is definitely the best option at the point unless Woodall really breaks out next season.

-Even if Blair returns, as he does in this scenario, we are going to need some big-time scoring increases from other holdovers. My best bets are Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown. If either isn't up to the task, I think they'll start losing time to the likes of Wanamaker, Gibbs or Nas Robinson as the year goes along. There is too much talent among all these guys not to have at least one turn in a breakout season with more minutes. Dixon especially will be interesting to watch in my mind. The guy is a good defender, but he's not so good that you can allow him to be a no-show on offense as he was at the end of the season when his confidence in his shot appeared to be less than zero.

-My pick for a breakout player on this team is Gil Brown. I think he could make The Leap like Sam I Am did a year ago. I'm not saying he'll jump to Sam's level and be at 18 points per game, but I could definitely see a 14-6 line. His athleticism is amazing and sorta reminds me of a less physical and imposing version of Young. If he could just find some consistency I think he is a sure thing for a big year.

-It will be an interesting year for Gary McGhee next season. A ton of people have given up on him, and I sort of have too. But it's also worth remembering how shocking Aaron Gray's third season with Jamie Dixon was. I'm not saying Gary is going to evolve into an NBA prospect, or even that he's going to earn starter's minutes. But I could definitely see him turning into a guy who can at least give 15+ quality minutes a night and allow DeJuan Blair to maybe even play some power forward minutes. Now THAT would make Pitt a force to be reckoned with on the interior.

-It will be fascinating to see Dante Taylor next year. A big reason why I'm hoping Blair comes back next season is so that Taylor doesn't have to shoulder that entire load himself. Taylor may be a very highly rated recruit, but not every superstar prospect is created equal, and I think it would be to this kid's benefit to not be the focal point every night. Not saying he won't be able to handle it if it does happen, just that we'd all be better off if he doesn't even have to worry about that.

-The other freshman besides Taylor don't figure to have a huge impact on this roster. Both J.J. Richardson and Talib Zanna are 4/5 players who would be a tad undersized if they do play the 5. However, if McGhee struggles one of the two will get at least some minutes spelling Blair inside. Patterson, meanwhile, sounds a lot like a Nas Robinson or Gil Brown. A reasonably highly-regarded recruit who figures to either take a redshirt or play sparingly in his first year because of the logjam at the 2/3/4 spots in front of him.

Bottom Line: With Blair back, the Panthers would still be a force to be reckoned with in the Big East. If Taylor performs as expected and one of the numerous guys at the 2 or 3 positions step their game up to the level of averaging double-digit points, then this is a squad that absolutely should contend for the Big East title on the broad shoulders of number 45. The big question will be how the Gibbs/Woodall tandem handles the point guard duties. This will still be a deep team with some very good talent and athleticism coming off the bench. All in all, I definitely think this team would be capable of making a deep run in the tournament, and its overall athleticism would match up well with anyone in the country. They may not be as hyped as this year's squad or receive as many regular season accolades, but they could definitely win some games in the tournament and make a run equal to or greater than the run this year's squad did.


2009/10 Without DeJuan Blair
And now onto the more depressing (and realistic) scenario: DeJuan Blair leaving.
Rotation
1 Ashton Gibbs
2 Jermaine Dixon
3 Gilbert Brown
4 Dante Taylor
5 Gary McGhee
6 Brad Wanamaker
7 J.J. Richardson
8 Travon Woodall
9 Nasir Robinson
10 Lamar Patterson
11 Talib Zanna
Maybe: Kyryl Natyazhko

Random Thoughts:
-This squad obviously will be filled with an awful lot of uncertainties. None would be bigger than at the center position, where I imagine there will be a competition for the starting job. For now I am giving that to the big oaf himself Gary McGhee, but any one of J.J. Richardson, Talib Zanna, Dante Taylor, or the still-uncommitted Kyryl Natyazhko could win it as well. I gave it to McGhee because he knows the system and can at least play defense the way Jamie wants him to. Taylor could be an option if Pitt really wants to play athletic small ball, but I don't like the sound of playing a 6'8 215 pound freshman at center. Sure DeJuan Blair did it as freshman, but by all accounts, and judging by his build, Taylor is not nearly physical enough to play the 5. Hell, he may not be physical enough to play the 4 and his manifest destiny in the NBA is probably as a 3. I can't envision 3-star recruits like Zanna or Richardson getting starters' minutes at center, especially when neither is taller than 6'9 or heavier than 230 pounds. Lastly we have Natyazhko. He is still an uncommitted prospect and is being recruited by other big-time schools like Arizona State, Florida State, Xavier, and Kentucky. He is a 4-star recruit, and if Blair does leave then Jamie will have to put the full-court press on to make sure he lands this kid. If they do nab him he definitely has enough talent to break into the starting lineup and at the very least should earn some serious backup minutes.

-Pitt would almost be a leadpipe lock to adopt a smallish, Villanova-type lineup at least part of the time. This team would have more athleticism than almost anyone else they might face and would need to use that trait to overcome their lack of size and bulk. Rolling out a lineup like the one below would definitely allow the opposition to outmuscle them, but they could overcome it by running with all these athletes.
1 Gibbs/Woodall
2 Dixon/Gibbs
3 Wanamaker/Robinson
4 Brown/Robinson
5 Taylor

-Without Blair, Dante Taylor and his lofty recruit status would likely become one of the alpha dogs on this team. He has the ability to probably average 15 a night right off the bat if given this opportunity, and I imagine the whole offense would funnel through him if he is all he is supposed to be. However, we would need more than just one of the swingmen guys to step up. We'd probably need 2 and maybe even 3 others to turn into reliable scorers. This would no longer be the top heavy offense of the past few seasons where everything centered around 2 or 3 guys. This would have to be a team like the 02/03 Panthers that had 6 guys average between 9.7 and 12.2 points per game. The most likely candidates would be Gil, Gibbs, Dixon and Wanamaker all joining Taylor as double digit scorers with maybe a Gary or a Natyazhko or a Richardson getting enough minutes to come close to that figure.

Bottom Line: This has the look of being the first true rebuilding year since Pitt turned back into a good team. We've said that in years past, but there would never have been as much uncertainty entering a team as with this squad. They have a freaking ton of talent, though, so they'll be fun to watch and they definitely shouldn't be discounted by anybody. However, being so raw makes it unlikely they'll be the serious title contender that this year's team was unless Dante Taylor turns out to be an even bigger stud than scouts think or Gil Brown turns into Sam Young or Ashton Gibbs becomes Brandin Knight with a better shot. Those are lofty goals, though, and for that I see this team as a good but not great Pitt squad that finishes in the upper half of the Big East but not in the top echelon and makes the tournament as a middle seed, somewhere in the 5-8 range. All that talent and athleticism would make them a handful for anybody in the tourney and yet another Sweet 16 appearance wouldn't be a shock to me.