NFL Mock Draft III

Being that the last draft I put together on here 18 days ago gave me about half the total traffic this site has ever seen (that's right, 5 people came by!) thanks to the kindness (and shocking popularity) of a few Mock Draft Databases, I figured I'd get that traffic pumping again with another mock draft. If you want to see what I've previously said about your teams in the past two mock drafts, check here for Part I and here for Part II. The conclusion of the combine this week also gives me enough new information to justify a new Mock. For some bizarre reason I really enjoy these things, and love to see any feedback I can get. I don't bother putting any trades in or anything like that and put very little stock in what the free agency rumors are, because there is no sense in playing that guessing game, it just makes things too complicated. So read on and by all means, let me know what you think.

1. Detroit- Matthew Stafford QB GeorgiaTurns out this is one of two first rounders that has now hit the trifecta, with 3 straight selections being the same player. Mainly this is because there just hasn't been much news on Stafford, except for the predictable tidbit that the Lions are very interested in him and devoted more resources to him at the combine than anyone else. Stafford didn't throw at the combine, but the other results were pretty predictable. Like I said last time, "Until I hear that the Lions aren’t looking at the QB position, I just can’t bring myself to slot anyone else into this spot." And that still holds true today.
Alternate Pick: Jason Smith OT Baylor
Mock Draft I: Matthew Stafford
Mock Draft II: Matthew Stafford

2. St. Louis- Jason Smith OT BaylorIt's only appropriate to give the Rams Jason Smith here, as they have previously been pegged with the other two potential top OT's in Eugene Monroe and Andre Smith. As many predicted though, Jason Smith has been the top workout warrior and the most tantalizing and intriguing prospect of the bunch. He is still a bit on the raw side considering he is a former tight end, but its also not as if it is his first year at the position either. By most accounts he projects to the left side better than any other lineman in this draft, and for now that, and some of the many questions surrounding the other Smith, propel Jason to the 2nd pick.
Alternate Pick: Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
Mock Draft I: Andre Smith OT Alabama
Mock Draft II: Eugene Monroe

3. Kansas City- Aaron Curry LB Wake ForestI think this will be one of the more intriguing and potentially draft-altering picks of the draft. There are a lot of ways the Chiefs could go with this pick, but after Curry's dynamite workout at the combine I think he remains the best bet here. Offensive line is certainly a need, and if one of the potential pass rushers, like Brian Orakpo or Everette Brown, have a monster workout or something they could also be a possibility here, as the Chiefs are in desperate need of some pass rushing. However, Curry may well be the most NFL-ready player in this draft, and linebacker has traditionally been one of the safest positions for 1st round picks. And there is also the chance they could go against the Patriot mentality and take Mark Sanchez or Matt Stafford if he happens to be available. Like I said, lots of intrigue here.
Alternate Pick: Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
Mock Draft I: Eugene Monroe
Mock Draft II: Aaron Curry

4. Seattle- B.J. Raji DT Boston CollegeFew players have rocketed up the draft boards more than Raji over the last two months. To me that is always something of a red flag when a guy moves up more after the actual football games are over than he did during the season. Still, the reports on Raji have been nothing short of glowing and perhaps he really was just a bit overlooked during the season at a position that is typically pretty hard to stand out at in college football. This is the first time I've not given the Seahawks Michael Crabtree, and while I certainly think he is still very much a possibility here, Raji's incredible rise coupled with Crabtree's injury and sudden shrinkage of 2 inches makes Raji the more likely option in my mind.
Alternate Pick: Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech
Mock Draft I: Michael Crabtree
Mock Draft II: Michael Crabtree

5. Cleveland- Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio StateThe Browns have needs all over the board, especially on defense where they are in need of some personnel to fulfill their new 3-4 scheme. While guys like Everette Brown, Brian Orakpo and Aaron Maybin are definitely ideal 3-4 type outside 'backers, I also don't think they have jumped off the page enough yet to be considered top 5 material. Jenkins meanwhile is far and away the top corner in the draft and despite some concerns about his speed, I think he has the ability to be a very good corner, as opposed to a safety which some are suggesting. The Browns are in desperate need of a top-notch corner, and Jenkins also brings some local buzz to go with his prodigious talent.
Alternate Pick: Everette Brown DE/LB Florida State
Mock Draft I: Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
Mock Draft II: Everette Brown

6. Cincinnati- Eugene Monroe OT VirginiaIt would be so perfect to fit them with the trouble-making Andre Smith, but at some point they have to wise up, right? Offensive Tackle may not necessarily be the Bengals biggest need, though it certainly is a need, but Monroe is way too good to pass up here. Seriously, though, don't rule out Smith. Certainly a lot of NFL teams have soured on him of late because of his idiocy at the combine and at Bama, but it only takes one. An ultra-athletic pass rusher like Everette Brown or Brian Orakpo is also a possibility here, though they would be employed as DE here, not as a 3/4 OLB.
Alternate Pick: Brian Orakpo DE Texas
Mock Draft I: Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
Mock Draft II: Andre Smith OT Alabama

7. Oakland- Michael Crabtree WR Texas TechUgh. Is there a dumber franchise in sports than the Raiders? Okay, sorry, is there a dumber franchise in sports besides the Clippers? I don't think so. That Nnamdi Asomugha contract was absurd. Tommy Kelly's deal was terrible, Javon Walker's deal was unfathomably terrible, they are ruining JaMarcus Russell's unbelievable talent, the list goes on and on. And now they could potentially be ignoring their massive holes all along the offensive line in a draft full of talented O-linemen in order to take a wide receiver. So predictable, yet so dumb. Good luck getting the ball downfield to Crabtree when Russell has 1 second of freedom in the pocket. Roger Goodell really needs to step in and take control of this franchise from Al Davis and force him to bring in a real personnel guy.
Alternate Pick: Andre Smith OT Alabama
Mock Draft I: Aaron Maybin DE/LB Penn State
Mock Draft II: Jason Smith OT Baylor

8. Jacksonville- Andre Smith OT AlabamaI think the Jags are pretty desperate for offensive line help, and would be willing to overlook Smith's very serious character red flags if he slips. However, it is still very early in this process, and Smith has become such a divisive character that I could see him going literally anywhere from a top 3 pick if one of those teams becomes enamored with him to a Randy Moss-like slide that sees him slip uncomfortably for no reason besides character concerns. For now, 8 seems about right even though most agree he physically is the most talented lineman in the draft. If he pans out, this is a steal and a half for the Jags, a team that needs that kind of a break to shore up a shaky unit.
Alternate Pick: Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
Mock Draft I: Michael Oher
Mock Draft II: B.J. Raji DT Boston College

9. Green Bay- Everette Brown OLB Florida StateThe Packers are switching to the 3-4 under guru Dom Capers and need to do a pretty fair amount to address this switch as their personnel doesn't match up that well. They figure to want to get their hands on B.J. Raji or Malcolm Jenkins, but as of now neither one is sitting here, nor are they even close to dropping. Instead they look at the pass rushing OLB position, for which there are 3 pretty similar candidates. Brown probably has the most upside, and many think he will be the best linebacker of the three, even if Orakpo might be the better defensive end.
Alternate Pick: Brian Orakpo DE/OLB Texas
Mock Draft I: Malcolm Jenkins CB Ohio State
Mock Draft II: Malcolm Jenkins

10. San Francisco- Mark Sanchez QB USCI strongly considered a ton of other options here, but the way this draft happened to play out, I can't see the Niners thinking it is a good idea to take a Jeremy Maclin, a Michael Oher, or a Brian Orakpo here. Sanchez is young and still pretty raw, so this situation actually makes a lot of sense for him in that Shaun Hill can hold the fort down for at least a season. Sanchez's upside is quite impressive, he had a very good workout at the combine by all accounts and it still wouldn't surprise me to hear his name being mentioned very seriously as a top 3 pick in the coming weeks. I also find it just about impossible to picture him falling out of the top 10, though I said the same about Brady Quinn 2 years ago.
Alternate Pick: Brian Orakpo DE/OLB Texas
Mock Draft I: Brian Orakpo
Mock Draft II: Mark Sanchez

11. Buffalo- Brian Orakpo DE/OLB Texas
The Bills got off to a great start this past season, but faded down the stretch for a number of reasons. I've seen a lot of Brandon Pettigrew talk here, but I don't think he is even remotely worthy of this pick, as he isn't a Kellen Winslow/ Vernon Davis type athlete. Orakpo meanwhile is a pro-ready stud who could easily go 6 picks higher and should contribute right off the bat.
Alternate Pick: Aaron Maybin DE/OLB Penn State
Mock Draft I: Everette Brown DE/OLB Florida State
Mock Draft II: Brian Orakpo

12. Denver- Brian Cushing LB Southern Cal
The Broncos are a team in the midst of their first philosophy change in over a decade after the dismissal of Mike Shanahan and the hiring of Josh McDaniel. Cushing is the second-best pure linebacker in the draft after Aaron Curry and is probably right about on par with the 3 tweeners. He had a very good workout and would be an immediate impact guy for the Broncos. Most think Denver has to go D in their draft, and Cushing makes the most sense. It will be worth a look, though, to seeif they consider investing in a running back high in the draft for the first time in recorded history. A Beanie Wells or Knowshon Moreno certainly would not be much of a reach here.
Alternate Pick: Chris Wells RB Ohio State
Mock Draft I: B.J. Raji DT Boston College
Mock Draft II: Aaron Maybin DE/LB Penn State

13. Washington- Aaron Maybin DE/LB Penn State
I originally thought that if Michael Oher was here, it would be the slam dunk of all slam dunks, and it still might be before all is said and done. However, I am changing things up this time. The Skins, despite the addition of Jason Taylor, still need a lot of help on defense, especially in the pass rushing department. Oher, meanwhile, seems to be a late first-rounder in some people's eyes (I'll believe that when I see it), and would be a definite reach here. Maybin, meanwhile, has the potential to go much higher if the right team likes him due to the murky status over who the best DE/LB 'tweener really is. Maybin's athleticism and versatility would give the Skins an impressive weapon to use, and if the Albert Haynesworth rumors are true, then the Skins are pretty serious about upgrading that D-Line.
Alternate Pick: Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
Mock Draft I: Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech
Mock Draft II: Michael Oher

14. New Orleans- Vontae Davis CB Illinois
When the Saints turn comes up, the best defensive player on the board should immeidately be the player of choice, no matter what the position on that side of the ball. In this case, Davis slips a little bit, but a pass-rushing end, a tough middle linebacker or a sturdy lineman could all be the choice as well. Davis is an ultra-athletic player with very good speed. He is your prototypical defensive back workout warrior and by the time the draft rolls around, I wouldn't bat an eyelash if he had shot up the boards to higher than 14.
Alternate Pick: Rey Maualuga LB USC
Mock Draft I: Rey Maualuga
Mock Draft II: Vontae Davis

15. Houston- Robert Ayers DE Tennessee
Another one of your typical workout warriors, Ayers has been phenomenal in the post-season and is making NFL scouts salivate at the thought of him bursting off the D-Line and wreaking havoc in the opposing backfield. He could be especially dangerous in Houston opposite the amazing Super Mario Williams, who is constantly demanding double teams. The Texans could also look at shoring up the secondary or maybe even considering an offenisve talent like Beanie Wells or Jeremy Maclin who are still on the board in this case.
Alternate Pick: Tyson Jackson DE LSU
Mock Draft I: Vontae Davis CB Illinois
Mock Draft II: Brian Cushing

16. San Diego- Rey Maualuga LB Southern Cal
This is another one of those picks that has become popular on a lot of sites, and just seems to make too much sense not to happen. Maualuga flat out plays, and as long as his tweaked hamstring at the combine is determined to be just that and nothing more serious, I think the Chargers would love to add a player of his caliber to the middle of their defense, giving them a stay-at-home playmaker alongside Shawn Merriman, who goes all over the field in his duties. I think franchising Darren Sproles put to rest the first round running back talk, but they are a talented enough squad that they could just snag whoever the best player on the board is and try to find ways to plug that player in. In that case, a guy like Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin or Tyson Jackson could come into play.
Alternate Pick: Tyson Jackson DE LSU
Mock Draft I: James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State
Mock Draft II: Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia

17. New York Jets- Michael Oher OT Ole Miss
Oher takes a surprising slip to the Jets, but I think this is about where he belongs based on what I've read from many scouts who think he could be a big-time tumbler on draft day. OT may not be the biggest need on the Jets wish list, but I think he is the best option for them here. This is also a possible landing spot if Mark Sanchez has to suffer through the Aaron Rodgers Experience (a QB who slips from top pick to mid-to-late first round pick as everyone in New York watches in horror), an affliction which strikes roughly every other year.
Alternate Pick: D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt
Mock Draft I: Tyson Jackson DE LSU
Mock Draft II: Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri

18. Chicago- Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri
If Maclin slips, I think the Bears will deploy Devin Hester to spring up to the podium to announce this pick because they'll want to get this guy in a Bears uni as fast as possible. Sure, Da Bears need an upgrade in numerous aspects of their defense, but Maclin is a difference making receiver who could easily go 10 spots higher. In fact, I'm not convinced he will definitively be behind Crabtree by the time the big day rolls around. His physical measurables are almost certainly better than the Texas Tech star's.
Alternate Pick: Eben Britton OT Arizona
Mock Draft I: Tyson Jackson DE LSU
Mock Draft II: Jeremy Maclin

19. Tampa Bay- D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt
The Bucs are a tough team to read, at least in part because its difficult to gauge how Raheem Morris will want to guide the team in his first offseason in charge. I considered players like Beanie Wells and Peria Jerry, but in the end, the Bucs have a strong need in their secondary, and I think it is too soon after the Cadillac Williams misfire to expect another first round back, especially when there figure to be at least a few pretty solid ones available in Round 2. It also remains to be seen how high Jerry really grades out.
Alternate Pick: Chris "Beanie" Wells RB Ohio State
Mock Draft I: Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
Mock Draft II: Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss

20. Detroit- Eben Britton OT Arizona
The Lions have needs all over the football field, but finding a way to at least add some talent to their offensive line is an absolute must, especially if they invest in a franchise QB like Stafford or Sanchez at the top of the draft. Britton is a notch below the top tier guys, but he is a solid talent and given the high demand for offensive linemen, expect him to go around here for someone like the Lions who are willing to reach for a player they like. This would also mirror the Falcons very successful plan of a season ago, and that worked out pretty well I'd say.
Alternate Pick: Clay Matthews LB USC
Mock Draft I: Eben Britton
Mock Draft II: Rey Maualuga LB USC
21. Philadelphia- Chris "Beanie" Wells RB Ohio State
Wells is a very, very talented running back, but this continues a recent trend of good backs who aren't quite franchise backs sliding in the draft. Still, there is no question in my mind that Philly would be a great spot for Wells. If he went too high he might be forced to carry the load, and I'm not convinced he'll ever be a 300 carry back. With the Eagles, though, he gets to complement Brian Westbrook for a couple seasons, hopefully staying healthy, while also extending Westbrook's career. He would be a nice weapon to add to Donovan McNabb's arsenal, for sure. Oddly, this is the third straight draft I've had Wells fall to the Eagles. A little strange, I know and certainly not planned.
Alternate Pick: William Beatty OL Connecticut
Mock Draft I: Chris "Beanie" Wells
Mock Draft II: Chris "Beanie" Wells

22. Minnesota- Alex Mack C California
Sorry to disappoint, Steeler fans, but Mack's stock is starting on the uptick these days. So much so that I am beginning to doubt that he'll be there when the times comes. I'm not sold that he goes this high, its just how things happen in this particular mock. The Vikings are sort of negotiating to bring back Matt Birk, but he has maybe one season left in the tank, and I don't even buy that. Mack can either back up Birk and learn the ropes from him or make a temporary switch to guard (something that many think he should do anyway) for the Vikes. Either way, he goes off the board way before our black and gold can even think about him.
Alternate Pick: Percy Harvin WR Florida
Mock Draft I: Mark Sanchez QB USC
Mock Draft II: Josh Freeman QB Kansas State

23. New England- Tyson Jackson DE LSU
Okay, this might have been an oversight on my part. Jackson is probably too good to slip this far and I definitely thought about giving him to more than one team before this slot. The problem is, Jackson isn't the game changer that many teams are looking for in the DE position. And he is probably better suited to a 3-4 than a 4-3. The Pats figure to absolutely gobble him up on the off-chance he lasts this far. Otherwise I think the Patsies could look at someone like Clay Matthews or maybe a versatile playmaker like Percy Harvin. Don't think that Bill Belicheck has any intention of missing out on this Wildcat/ Single Wing type stuff. I think Harvin could definitely fulfill that role, and I think Pat White could also wind up a Patriot before its all over, too.
Alternate Pick: Clay Matthews LB USC
Mock Draft I: Clay Matthews
Mock Draft II: Brian Cushing LB USC

24. Atlanta- Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State
Again, this is a pick that just makes an infinite amount of sense. I can't possibly imagine the Falcons passing on the ultimate security blanket for Matt Ryan. Pettigrew is going to slip from where many originally projected him because his combine numbers were nothing special. If anything they were a little disappointing. I'm not that surprised. He seems more like a Heath Miller type from what I saw of him rather than an Antonio Gates type. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with a Heath Miller, he's just not a gamebreaker. Other than that, he's wonderful to have.
Alternate Pick: Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss
Mock Draft I: Peria Jerry
Mock Draft II: Brandon Pettigrew

25. Miami- Alphonso Smith CB Wake Forest
The Fins, despite the playoff berth this past season, still have a number of needs to fill. Looking at their roster, this team really did do it with smoke and mirrors for much of last season. The biggest need appears to be the secondary as a whole. There, Alphonso Smith is a very good pick for the back of the first round. He is a bit undersized, but has great speed and superb cover skills. He might be the best total corner in the draft, and if he had Malcolm Jenkins' body he'd be fighting him for a spot in the top 5 picks.
Alternate Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
Mock Draft I: D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt
Mock Draft II: D.J. Moore CB Vanderbilt

26. Baltimore- Clay Matthews LB USC
For now, I pretty much have to assume that Bart Scott is probably gone. They might just get Ray-Ray to renew, but I can't see Scott, too. In fact, I think they are both gone. In that case the linebacker position becomes a huge need, and that's where Clay Matthews comes in to play. The Birds may also look at acquiring some help for Joe Flacco, especially if all these receivers keep slipping down the draft board.
Alternate Pick: Percy Harvin WR Florida
Mock Draft I: Percy Harvin
Mock Draft II: James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State

27. Indianapolis- Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
Marvin Harrison is likely gonzo in Indy, and that leaves the Colts a little thin on the receiving depth chart. Sure, they have other needs, but the days of Peyton Manning being able to throw to literally anybody are long gone. Beefing up the defense is also a traditional area of interest for the Colts every draft day, but I think they need to add some weapons on the offense. With Heyward-Bey falling I don't think that the Colts can pass him up.
Alternate Pick: Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss
Mock Draft I: Sen'Drick Marks DT Auburn
Mock Draft II: Alphonso Smith CB wake Forest

28. Philadelphia- William Beatty OT Connecticut
However they do it, the Eagles almost certainly have to add some beef to the offensive tackle position. Adding Wells at 21 was a nice luxury pick, but at 28 reaching for Beatty, who is probably more like a second round talent, isn't a bad move at all.
Alternate Pick: Larry English LB Northern Illinois
Mock Draft I: Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State
Mock Draft II: Eben Britton OT Arizona

29. New York Giants- Percy Harvin WR Florida
The Boys in Blue, despite coming off a spectacular season, have a few big-time needs they'd love to address. The Plax Burress situation is still very much up in the air, but I fully expect him to never pull the Giants jersey on again. They could look at Hakeem Nicks or Harvin here or even Heyward-Bey if he falls, but they need to find a playmaker at some point in this draft. I'm not sure that Harvin is capable of an 80 catch season, but he is dangerous with the ball, probably more so than just about any other player in this draft, and that may be enough to get him a close inspection from the G-Men. They also could look to upgrade a few different spots on defense, especially at defensive end and middle linebacker.
Alternate Pick: James Laurinaitis LB Ohio State
Mock Draft I: Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
Mock Draft II: Clint Sintim LB Virginia

30. Tennessee- Peria Jerry DT Ole Miss
This pick is used with the strong belief that Albert Haynesworth is on his way out of Nashville. Jerry is a monster of a player and has a fair amount of upside to his game. He's not going to be viewed as a replacement for Haynesworth, as he isn't that type of impact player, but he is capable of taking quality snaps for a contending team like the Titans. Tennessee also could work to grab a passing game weapon for Kerry Collins.
Alternate Pick: Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina
Mock Draft I: Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Maryland
Mock Draft II: Percy Harvin WR Florida

31. Arizona- Knowshon Moreno RB Georgia
LeSean McCoy is all sorts of pissed right now. The running backs fall and Zona snags themselves a top 20 talent. I personally think Moreno is at least the equal of Beanie Wells, but think Wells will go ahead of him. Moreno immediately steps into a big role for the Cards. I don't think its a given Arizona goes for a back, though, as many people do. They certainly need defensive help, and don't rule out Russ Grimm talking Whiz into more offensive line help, either.
Alternate Pick: Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech
Mock Draft I: Duke Robinson G Oklahoma
Mock Draft II: LeSean McCoy RB Pitt

32. Pittsburgh- Duke Robinson OL Oklahoma
Many are of the belief that the Steelers take whoever the best OL on the board is. I'm not necessarily a fan of that belief, but I think in this case it is the direction they must go. It could be tough to pass on Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin and Darrius Heyward-Bey if any of them are there (only Nicks is in this case and I'm not big on him). It also could be interesting if they become enamored with one of the next level of corners, guys like Utah's Sean Smith. That said, I think Robinson is on the same plane as those guys, and that receiver or corner are more likely to still have a quality player available at the end of the second round than offensive line where teams often reach for players.
Alternate Pick: Sean Smith CB Utah
Mock Draft I: Alex Mack C California
Mock Draft II: Alex Mack C California

And that's a wrap folks. Thanks for stopping by, and though I doubt anybody read all of these 4,495 words, thanks for whatever interest you took in my Mock Draft. Please feel free to let me know any criticisms or thoughts you might have about this draft. We'll do this again in a couple weeks after the buzz of free agency has settled and some individual workouts have passed and the boards are shaken up again.